Key Message Update

Ongoing new harvests contribute to maintaining stable acute food security

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-TD-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • National cereal production for 2015/2016 is estimated at 2,427,241 tons according to DPAS/Ministry of Agriculture compared to the five-year average of 2,687,408 tons, a decrease of approximately 10 percent. Production of all major cereal crops is down compared to the five-year average, except for wheat (up 22 percent), due to the late start of the rainy season, the poor distribution of rains, and an early cessation of rains in certain areas.

  • The cereal production deficit is more significant in the Sahelian zone than in the Sudanian zone (south of the country). The largest deficit areas in the Sahelian zone in order of importance are Kanem, Batha, Biltine and Sila. In the Sudanian zone, Mayo Kebbi Ouest, Logone Oriental and Tandjilé experienced the largest production shortfalls.

  • The state of emergency declared in the Lac Region (November 9, 2015) has impacted markets and household livelihoods. Markets are less frequented because of restricted population movements between villages and markets, such as Bol, Bagassola, Liwa and Kiskawa. The price of maize in Bol, for example, is 34 percent above the five-year average.

  • Thanks to ongoing harvests and income from agricultural wage labor, most poor households are currently able to cover their food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies. All livelihood zones will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) until December. However, beginning in January 2016, some areas of the Sahel will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics