Inadequate rainfall is slowing the progress of farming activities in the south

• Slow progress for planting activities is observed in the south due to the lack of sufficient rainfall with a two to three week delay in the onset of the rains compared with their normal start date of late April. There have been reports of light rainfall activity in the Mayo Kebbi Est, Mayo Kebbi Ouest, Tandjilé, and southwestern Chari Baguirmi regions.

• The depletion of household food stocks, shortfalls in income from farm labor and the sale of livestock, and atypical rises in cereal prices are limiting food access for poor households in southern Guera, parts of Wadi Fira, Lac, Kanem, Bahr El Ghazel, and Hadjer Lamis. Humanitarian assistance should keep food insecurity at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels.

• The damage to rainfed crops from the 2014 drought in Djourf Al Ahmar department (in the Sila region) and the effects of the drought and extreme heat on market gardening activities are straining the food security situation of households. There is a similar situation in Mangalmé and Abtouyour departments in Guera, where the lean season began earlier than usual in mid-May with the depletion of household food stocks.

• Refugees and returnees from the Central African Republic in the Logone Oriental, Moyen Chari, and southern Mandoul regions are able to meet their basic needs significant difficulty and have regular access to humanitarian assistance, markets, and wage income from farm labor.

Farming conditions: There is a two-to-three-week delay in the start of the growing season in the Sudanian zone compared with last year and an average year. Certain households are still holding onto their seed supplies for fear of wasting them, aware of how the use of these seeds affects their food stocks for household consumption.

Status of pastoral resources: Pastoral conditions in the Sahelian zone are still mediocre due to the earlier than usual lean season in pastoral areas, triggered by the limited availability of pasture. As a result, certain pastoralists are still purchasing animal feed for their livestock. The recent rains reported in Guera, Salamat, and parts of Ouaddaï (in the Abdi area) in the middle of June have helped spur the growth of fresh green grass cover for both sedentary and transhumant livestock herds. With the steady improvement in the condition of vegetation in the south, it is just about able to meet the needs of livestock in that area. Many animals have reportedly poor body conditions as a result of the shortage of pasture. Most oxen are unable to work as hard as expected.

Population movements: There is a continuing influx of refugees and returnees from Nigeria into the Lac area, though there were fewer new arrivals in the month of June. The main concern with the beginning of the rainy season is the lack of shelters.

Household cereal soutocks: Remaining food stocks are steadily dwindling as the height of the lean season draws closer. Households in the Western Sahel have already depleted their food stocks and are currently resorting to the use of coping strategies (wage labor, sales of firewood, etc.) to meet their needs. Notwithstanding the situation in the food-short cantons of Bahr-Signaka and Mangalmé, on-farm food stocks in the Guera region could enable poor households to make it through the month of July, though they will experience some hardship.

Cereal and livestock markets: Markets in the Sahelian zone (except in the Western Sahel) are well stocked with staple food crops (cereals, pulses, and oilseeds) with the larger than usual inventories on other rural markets and in crop-producing areas. There is still very little consumer demand on local markets with the large availability of crops and ensuing replenishment of household food stocks since December 2014. On the other hand, market supplies in the Western Sahel are low due to the poor yields of cereal crops for 2014/2015 and the burden imposed by refugees and returnees on host populations. Thus, prices in Bol are reportedly particularly high. Current prices for maize range from 256 to 260 CFAF/kg, which is 31 percent above the five-year average. Prices for livestock are beginning to climb, fueled by the interplay of a reportedly low supply and normal seasonal demand, plus the month-long observance of Ramadan. According to traders, there is no foreign demand for livestock with the disruptions caused by the conflict with Boko Haram.

There are food crops available on markets in the southern part of the country but, as usual, inventory levels are down at this time of year with the depletion of existing stocks. However, the presence of potatoes and shea nuts on local markets is bolstering food availability in this area. Maize, pearl millet, sesame, and peanuts are in high demand on local markets. Prices for pearl millet in Moundou are up by 83 percent from June 2014, fueled by heavy demand. Prices for peanuts and sesame on the Doba market are up by 11.2 percent and 30 percent, respectively. Prices for these crops will peak in the course of July-August. Prices for livestock are also on the rise, fueled by the heightened demand for an average ox at this time of year for plowing work. There are limited market supplies of small ruminants with agropastoralists busy working their land.

The current situation has not affected most of the assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely scenario presented in the Food Security Outlook for April through September 2015.

In general, the current food security situation across the country is satisfactory in spite of the heavy cereal consumption at this time of year by households in need of enough energy to work their fields (particularly for crop planting and crop maintenance work). Poor households in the Western Sahel, southern Guera, and parts of Wadi Fira whose cereal stocks are particularly low compared with the norm are dependent on market purchase. Households are diversifying their sources of income through activities such as craft-making, brick-laying, and sales of wood, poultry, goats, etc. in order to earn enough to meet their food needs and cover their expenses for the new growing season. However, in spite of their efforts, most poor households in these areas have been making less income and cutting back their essential nonfood spending. Their reduced and only minimally adequate food consumption will create Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) levels of food insecurity through September 2015, held in check only by deliveries of humanitarian assistance.

Household harvests of 2014 crops and current available supplies of milk and non-cereal crops such as winter legumes, wild fruits, and market garden produce are enabling poor households in the southern part of the country to meet their food and nonfood needs. With these crops helping to supplement their food intake and generate income, they are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. Refugees and returnees from the CAR in the Logone Oriental, Moyen Chari, and southern Mandoul regions are also experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity owing to ongoing deliveries of food assistance.