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The growing season is well-established in most of the Sudanian zone

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Chad
  • June 2013
The growing season is well-established in most of the Sudanian zone

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through September 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Grain availability, access, and food consumption for poor households was bolstered the National Food Security Agency’s (ONASA) seasonally normal sales of subsidized grains in June. All regions of the country are currently experiencing Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

    • The rainy season in the Sudanian zone started one month earlier than usual this year. Due to regular rainfall levels in most areas, widespread planting activities have been observed throughout the region. As usual, crops will be planted in the Sahelian zone beginning in mid-July. 

    • The depletion of household grain stocks one month earlier than normal and an atypically steep increase in food prices between July and September will limit grain access of poor households in certain parts of the Sudanian zone. These households will have difficulty meeting their food needs and will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity starting in July.  

    Current Situation
    • Agricultural conditions: Crops (ex. millet, sorghum, and maize) were planted slightly earlier than usual in the Sudanian zone and are already in the sprouting and/or tillering stage, depending on the date at which they were planted. Normal field clearing and clean-up activities are still underway in the Sahelian zone, with scattered reports of tractor plowing activities in Hadjer Lamis and Barh-Elghazal. Crop planting activities in this zone will begin in mid-July.
    • Pastoral conditions: In the Sudanian zone, animals are in good physical condition compared to the same time last year due to good food availability afforded by last year’s above-average rainfall levels and new pasture growth. However, animal watering conditions in the Sahelian zone are starting to deteriorate, as usual, forcing pastoralists to travel longer distances in search of water.
    • Farm labor: In the Sudanian zone, seasonal demand for labor for crop planting activities has been greater than last year’s levels, as the land area plowed this year has increased due to the availability of tractors supplied by the National Food Security Program (PNSA). As a result, the cost of labor has doubled compared to the same time last year. For example, the daily wage in Manda, in Moyen Chari, is currently 1,500 FCFA, which compares to 750 FCFA per day at the same time last year.
    • Household grain stocks: Grain stocks for poor households in the Sudanian zone (Tandjilé, Mayo Kebbi, and Logone Occidental) were nearly depleted as of the end of May, one month earlier than usual. This is due to last year’s flooding, which negatively impacted the 2012-2013 grain harvest. As a result, these households are presently market dependant, purchasing food using their normal incomes from farm labor activities and the sale of firewood and wild plant products. In the Sahelian zone, grain stocks are unusually large this year and will enable households to meet their needs through the end of the lean season (in September), instead of through the end of April as in a normal year. Exceptions to this are the Kanem, BEG, and Massakory areas, where grain supplies are almost depleted and households are becoming market dependent, as usual for this time of the year. In addition, current grain availability in the Lac and Ouaddaï areas should help local households get through the lean season (June-September) with less market dependency compared to a normal lean season and without experiencing any food insecurity.
    • Markets, supply, and prices: In general, markets are well-stocked with grains and trade flows are normal. The only exceptions to this are weaker than normal trade flows between Amtiman-Sarh, Pont Carol-Bongor, and Mongo-Moussoro and inexistent trade flows between Kelo-Cameroon and Mongo-Abéché, due to government bans on inter-zonal trade. The seasonally normal sales of subsidized grain by the ONASA are bolstering market supplies throughout the country. However despite these subsidized sales, there are still disparities in market supply levels depending on the zone. In the Sahelian zone, market stocks are currently being supplied by assembly markets and are above-normal due to the good 2012-2013 harvest. On the other hand, supplies in the Sudanian zone are below-average for this time of year due to the effects of flooding. As far as prices are concerned, June prices were, in general, stable compared to May. However in the Sarh market in the Sudanian zone, sorghum prices were up 10 percent and pearl millet prices were up eight percent compared to last month. Overall, grain prices (sorghum, pearl millet, and maize) are seven to 21 percent below the five-year average.
    • Current food security situation: Food insecurity is not currently a major source of concern due to a large market supply of crops (grains, vegetables, and tubers) at relatively affordable prices for very poor and poor households and a good availability of grains at the household-level in the Sahelian zone. In general, household grain stocks (in the Sahelian zone), market purchases (in the Sudanian zone), and/or subsidized sales by the ONASA are ensuring household grain access. Moreover, normal supply levels of market garden crops, wild plants, and dairy products are reinforcing household food security. As a result, the findings of current acute food insecurity analyses indicate Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in all regions of the country. 

    Updated Assumptions

    The current situation has not affected the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the period of April to September 2013. A full discussion of the scenario is available at the Food Security Outlook for April through September 2013

    Projected Outlook through September 2013

    Grain availability between July and September will be closely correlated with the grain inventories of traders, the ONASA, and food assistance agencies. This suggests future food insecurity problems in certain grain-deficit areas affected by last year’s floods (Mayo-Kebbi Ouest, Logone Oriental, Tandjilé, and Logone Occidental). Households in these areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security outcomes between July and September, with the depletion of grain stocks and rising prices limiting food access for very poor and poor households. Poor households in the rest of the country will have access to staple foods through their seasonally normal sources and/or through humanitarian food assistance programs. In these areas, households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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