A new wave of Sudanese refugees worsens food insecurity in the east

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist between December and May 2026 in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est provinces, where Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees are being hosted. However, the continuous influx of refugees and their relocations to the westernmost localities Wadi Hawar, Kobé, Megri, Biltine, Ouara, Abdi, and Djourf Al Ahamar departments risk driving worsened food insecurity and increasing the already high food assistance needs. The influx of 15,912 new refugees between October 24 and December 19 is increasing the pressure on the host communities’ livelihoods.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through May 2026 in the Fouli and Kaya departments, most affected by conflict and population displacement. Lac Province remains affected by terrorist group attacks and flooding, resulting in population displacement and the destruction of livelihoods. Mamdi and Wayi departments, which are less affected, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between December 2025 and January 2026 before evolving to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and May 2026.
• In the provinces impacted by the delayed onset of the season and by the dry spells in the center of the Sahelian zone and in the Sudanian zone, particularly North Kanem, North Barh el-Gazel, Moyen Chari, Salamat, and Tandjilé, poor and very poor households will be able to maintain only adequate food consumption. Their income will be insufficient to cover non-food expenditures, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between February and May 2026.
• Millet and sorghum prices continue to decrease due to surplus supply, largely exceeding demand. Traders are taking advantage of this situation to replenish their stocks. To meet non-food expenses, poor households are selling larger quantities of cereals to obtain sufficient income. However, the price of maize remains high, and harvests have not yet started.

This report provides an update on October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 19, 2025. 

• In the eastern provinces, the cholera epidemic was officially declared over on December 15, 2025, after causing 2,979 cumulative cases and 167 deaths since its start in July 2025. However, the area is facing increased deterioration of food security conditions following a new and massive influx of Sudanese refugees, a direct consequence of the intensification of conflicts since late October 2025 between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army in Darfur and Sudanese Kordofan. Following the attack on Al-Fasher in late October,15,912 new refugees were registered as of December 15, bringing the total number of new refugees since April 2023 to 899,148 according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). This new influx of refugees has worsened the already high food insecurity and food assistance needs in the provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi-Fira, and Ennedi-Est. Refugees are placing pressure on the livelihoods of host communities by increasing the labor supply and competition for scarce agricultural and non-agricultural work opportunities.
• Despite the weak mobilization of funding (the number of beneficiaries covered decreases each year relative to needs, according to the Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs [OCHA]), humanitarian actors are striving to contain the deterioration of food insecurity in localities near the border with Sudan through the relocation of refugees (Figure 1) to more distant sites. As of December 15, out of 899,148 new Sudanese refugees registered since April 2023, nearly 597,410 have been relocated to the departments of Wadi Hawar, Kobé, Megri, Biltine, Ouara, Abdi, and Djourf Al-Ahamar. This relocation transfers the pressure exerted on border host populations in terms of markets, employment opportunities, and gathered products to the communities hosting the new camps, while increasing logistical costs.
• In the Sudanian zone, intercommunal conflicts persist with clashes between farmers and herders. These clashes caused three deaths and affected the livelihoods of 4,982 people between November 14 and December 12, according to ACLED.
• The 2025/26 agricultural season ended late in the zone, with below-average temporal and spatial rainfall totals. Short- and medium-cycle agricultural products (sorghum, maize, groundnuts, sesame, cowpeas, sweet potatoes, taro) have been harvested. Meanwhile, long-cycle crops (millet, sorghum) at the maturation stage (milky or complete) were forced into early harvest following the early arrival of transhumant herders. However, off-season crop development is typical despite below-average annual rainfall totals. Harvests (particularly of berbere, tomatoes, and vegetables, among others) are taking place on schedule with expected average to above-average yields, having benefited from cool temperatures and greater area planted than in 2024.
• The delayed and poor harvests in the Sudanian zone, combined with the high cost of fuel, have delayed interprovincial flows, which would already be underway in a typical year. Harvests and sales of agricultural and livestock products constitute the main sources of food and income for households. Although markets are sufficiently supplied during this post-harvest period for rainfed crops following producers' offerings, many small-scale producers are putting the small amount of harvested stocks on the market to cover their children's school fees. This creates a local oversupply on the market, pushing prices continually downward even in the eastern provinces.

Humanitarian food assistance

The various programs of humanitarian partners indicate that food assistance is provided notably for newly arrived and relocated refugees. OCHA's humanitarian response report for January to September 2025 indicates that 307,004 children (78 percent of people in need) suffering from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were treated. The WFP report on Chad from October 2025 also mentions that 946,156 people were assisted in 2025 with 6,349 tons of food assistance distributed and 8.9 million USD distributed in cash transfers. Furthermore, in Lac Province, humanitarian assistance represents only 5 percent of food supplies for the majority of internally displaced persons. This information confirms that food assistance continues primarily for refugees.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Chad October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• The security situation remains unstable and unpredictable in Darfur and Kordofan of Sudan, generating a continued influx of new refugees into the Eastern provinces.
• The decongestion of reception sites along the border through the relocation of refugees to sites further west will shift the pressure on the resources of host populations in the departments of Wadi Hawar, Kobé, Megri, Biltine, Ouara, Abdi, and Djourf Al-Ahamar, which have been less impacted until now.
• The atypical decrease in cereal prices to below-average levels observed in markets in the Eastern provinces could continue until February 2026, due to supply that will remain above demand. Food commodity prices (or basic food products) would likely increase seasonally starting in March 2026 due to rising demand following the depletion of host population stocks and the high presence of refugees and returnees in these host provinces.
• Due to contributions from off-season crops, household stocks in other provinces will last until January 2026, as this is the post-harvest period, then in reduced quantities between February and May 2026, due to below-average harvests in 2025. Food prices will continue to decrease and generally remain below average until April 2026. They will increase again in May 2026, as household stocks are depleted and off-season harvests come to an end. Prices will also tend to increase if transportation costs rise and if the government does not renew its decision to exempt imported food products from taxes, which expires on December 31, 2025.
• Despite favorable seasonal prospects, harvests and off-season production in the Sudanian zone are being disrupted by the early arrival of transhumant herders. This arrival is causing clashes between farmers and herders, deaths, destruction of livelihoods, and market disruptions. Community conflicts are expected to increase further in the coming months, but will remain at typical levels until May 2026.

Humanitarian food assistance

Food assistance in the form of in-kind food and cash transfers will continue for Sudanese refugees, Chadian returnees, and host households, given the end of the cholera epidemic and WFP's option to gradually modify its assistance based on available funding. These conditions may not immediately affect the distribution of food assistance until May 2026. According to WFP, it plans to transition to vulnerability-based assistance during the first quarter of 2026, replacing status-based assistance (e.g., for refugees and returnees). The most vulnerable will receive monthly assistance, while the less vulnerable will receive assistance every three months.

Current food security conditions and their evolution through May 2026 will not significantly change food security outcomes in the eastern provinces, which are experiencing a new wave of refugees and returnees from Sudan. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist between December and May 2026 in the provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est, where Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees are being hosted. The latter, arriving completely destitute, face significant food consumption gaps and are highly dependent on food assistance.

In Lac, conditions have not fundamentally changed and remain marked by a persistent deterioration of the livelihoods of internally displaced persons and host households. According to the International Organization for Migration's December 2025 multisectoral location assessment, the majority of displaced persons do not have sufficient food and are reducing the number of meals per day or selling their assets to cope. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist until May 2026 in Fouli and Kaya departments, which are more affected by displaced populations due to the continued destruction of agricultural production, fishing, and petty trade livelihoods. In Mamdi and Wayi departments that are less affected by armed group attacks, poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between December 2025 and January 2026. They will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2026 due to difficulties accessing off-season production, fishing, and grazing areas. Poor households affected by flooding and lack of access to fields will deplete their food stocks early. They will progressively experience food consumption gaps while depending on markets with above-average prices and below-average incomes.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist in the northern provinces of Borkou, Ennedi-Ouest, and Tibesti, bordering Libya, until May 2026. Incoming flows of imported food products from Libya destined for Ennedi-Est, Ennedi-Ouest, and Tibesti would maintain downward trends in the markets. Very poor household incomes will be improved through the sale of dates, gold panning, and cross-border petty trade, thus facilitating their access to markets. Households will be able to cover their essential food needs, but not their other non-food needs.

In the Sudanian zone, despite the early arrival of transhumants and the atypical extension of the harvest period, poor and very poor households in most departments will be able to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through May 2026 due to the availability of food stocks. However, between February and May 2026, households in localities severely affected by the late onset of the season and by droughts, particularly in Moyen Chari, Salamat (Barh Azoum, Haraze-Manguegné), and Tandjilé, will have sufficient stocks to cover their food, but not non-food, needs due to the continued decrease in prices of agricultural products which serve as the main source of income. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist in these areas.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

The eastern provinces, bordering Sudan

An atypical influx of refugees following an intensification of fighting between the RSF and the Sudanese army in Darfur and Kordofan

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Assistance needs far exceed the capacities of humanitarian actors. There will be a significant deterioration of food insecurity extending across all departments of Est and Ennedi-Est provinces, which will all be in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!), assuming food assistance covers at least 20 percent of the population.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s Chad October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.