Food Security Outlook Update

Acute food insecurity persists around Lake Chad and Tibesti due to conflict

December 2019

December 2019 - January 2020

Le Tibesti est en phase 2 et le Lac est en phase 2 grâce à l'assistance alimentaire. Le Moyen Chari est en phase 1 grâce à l'assistance alimentaire.

February - May 2020

Le Tibesti est en phase 2 et le Lac est en phase 2 grâce à l'assistance alimentaire. Le Moyen Chari est en phase 1 grâce à l'assistance alimentaire. Le Kanem et le Bahr-el-Gazal sont en phase 2.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The food situation in Tibesti remains Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to conflict and disruption to trade flows, while humanitarian assistance in the Lake Chad area keeps the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity until at least January 2020. The rest of the country remains in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. 

  • Sorghum transplanting is ongoing and market gardening is increasing. There is good availability of pasture, but it is expected to deteriorate early.

  • Markets are well supplied with traders’ stocks, with the exception of Lake Chad and Tibesti, where supply remains low on local markets (Bardai, Zouar, Zouarke) due to irregular domestic flows from neighboring regions (Ennedi, Kanem, Bahr El Ghazal). Cereal prices in December 2019 fell in most markets, except Tibesti.

CURRENT SITUATION

 

Agricultural situation: In the Sudanian zone, transplanting of flood-recession sorghum is ongoing, but not all areas have been transplanted due to the delayed recession of water from flooded areas. In the Sahelian zone, transplanting of berberé is ongoing in the departments of Fitri and Bahr Azoum. Market gardening is expanding in production areas, the sizes of which are increasing due to heavy rains in October, producers’ enthusiasm and an increase in the number of farmers, especially for onions and garlic.

Pastoral situation: There is satisfactory availability of pasture and drinking water, and livestock farmers are gradually rebuilding stocks of hay for cattle feed. Dairy products are abundant and accessible to poor and very poor households. However, pasture is seeing early quantitative and qualitative deterioration, as a result of the flooding which caused significant decay of biomass. As a result, affluent pastoral farmers are purchasing red sorghum to supplement feed for lactating females and beasts of burden.

Agricultural labor: Currently, the agricultural labor force for market gardening mainly comprises family and/or community members. In rice-growing areas, paid labor is in short supply due to the onerous tasks involved. In the Ouaddai region, there is a good supply for intensive market gardening activities in most locations, especially Abeche (Bithea), although the daily wage remains below average due to low demand in this period.

Household cereal stocks: Stocks are being replenished. Harvest stock is at a normal level in the central Sahel, but households are beginning to sell some of it to cover needs for the end-of-year celebrations. Stocks are also being built up in some rice-growing areas, but this will be limited due to excess water. In the western Sahel, stock levels are lower than in a normal year due to poor harvests. 

Markets and prices: Cereal markets are well supplied in this post-harvest period (except in western Sahel) thanks to good crop production, and cereal prices (millet, sorghum) are lower than the five-year average and the same period last year. The price of sesame is beginning to rise due to strong demand from local and foreign traders. In the western Sahel, the low quantity of cereal products on markets is resulting in an increase in prices compared to the same period in a normal year. There is a moderate increase in maize prices.

Current food situation: In this post-harvest period, most households are consuming products from their own harvests and their food consumption has significantly improved. Around Lake Chad, internally displaced persons (IDPs) are developing coping strategies (meal sharing with host households) and are having difficulties accessing basic non-food needs. Humanitarian assistance keeps them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity. In Tibesti, border closures and the state of emergency are disrupting the functioning of the markets on which households depend. Poor households are having difficulty covering basic non-food expenditure and the zone is Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY 2020

Households in the regions of Bahr El Ghazal, Kanem and Hadjer Lamis with low levels of production will experience food shortages from February 2020. This is due to declining stock levels and declining incomes for pastoral households as a result of very low market demand for livestock and deteriorating terms of trade for livestock or cereals (1 goat to 50 kg of pearl millet) following an early lean season brought on by the erratic rainfall throughout the season. Households will depend on the markets, to which they will have reduced access due to low income levels. As a result, they will experience acute Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from February to May 2020.

Households around Lake Chad will experience difficulties due to pressure on livelihoods from displaced persons and refugees. They will still be dependent on food assistance and will have difficulties acquiring non-food items. They will experience acute Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. Those in Tibesti are experiencing difficulties due to low supplies from Libya, insecurity and very limited internal flows of cereals from Ouaddai (high transportation costs, lack of access). They do not have sufficient income to gain access to markets where price increases are reported for food products. They will be in acute Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until May 2020.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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