Insecurity keeps the Tibesti, Ennedi-Est and Ennedi-Ouest provinces in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

• High transportation costs due to rising fuel prices lead to higher market prices, limiting food access for poor and very poor households in BEG, Kanem, and Wadi Fira. This is accentuated in the Lac and Sudan border provinces. Internally displaced persons and host households, Sudanese refugees, and Chadian returnees in these areas are facing consumption deficits due to the atypical depletion of host household stocks and erosion of the main sources of income. The financial insecurity caused by the impact of conflict on the livelihoods of these households exacerbates consumption deficits in these regions; these households are in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 
• Households in the agricultural zone have reduced food consumption due to stock depletion. They rely on markets to which they have limited access because of their low level of income. Despite intensive use of wild products and early harvesting of crops, they have reduced food consumption and are in Stress (IPC Phase 2). 
• The Sudanese crisis continues to increase the number of refugees and returnees in eastern Chad. These displaced populations who have lost their livelihoods face financial insecurity. In the East, the halt in cross-border food flow has resulted in dependence on humanitarian assistance for displaced and host populations. In the Lac region, persistent insecurity is impacting the livelihoods of poor and very poor households, who are faced with a reduction in planted areas and a decline in demand for agricultural labor. As a result, food consumption by displaced and host households is reduced by the limited availability of imported food products and financial insecurity due to low income from labor. In addition, insecurity on the Libyan border (Tibesti) and the ban on artisanal gold panning in Tibesti limit the flow of migrant labor to this area.
• Climate forecasts suggest growing confidence in a strong El Niño by the end of 2023. On the basis of historical trends, El Niño years are not correlated with significant anomalies in rainfall performance in Chad. However, farming activities are significantly disrupted by long dry spells, which disrupt crop development. In the agricultural zones (Salamat, Logone and Mandoul), near-average rainfall enabled the first signs of a harvest to appear, albeit in lower volumes than in a normal year. However, the resumption of rainfall at the end of July favored the development of cash crops and early sorghum varieties, which are at the tillering stage. However, in agropastoral and Sahelian zones, the uneven distribution of rainfall has delayed crop development. Because of uneven rainfall distribution in the Sahel region, many crops are experiencing water stress, causing delays in their growth and development.

Socio-political context: Following the adoption of a draft new Constitution proposed by the government on June 27, 2023, the preparatory activities for the constitutional referendum are raising concerns among some political actors and civil society due to the non-inclusive nature of its organization and oversight by the entities in charge. To calm the political climate, an appeal has been made to members of the Les Transformers party and the Wakit Tama platform, who have been in exile since the protests of October 20, 2023, to return to the country. 

Security situation: Following clashes between government forces and rebel groups in Tibesti, the security situation has deteriorated. The conflict disrupts and limits the volume of incoming flows and disrupts the livelihoods of very poor and poor households in Tibesti and the two Ennedi provinces. The widespread nature of the Sudanese crisis continues to exert pressure on Chad as it receives an influx of Sudanese refugees and returnees. In anticipation of any spillover, Chadian authorities are redoubling their vigilance in monitoring their common borders. In the Sudanian region, a fragile calm has set in following recent intercommunity clashes in Mandoul, Middle Chari, and Eastern Logone, which are latent hotbeds of tension. On the other hand, minor skirmishes are regularly reported in these areas.

Humanitarian situation: Chad hosts 403,058 Sudanese refugees and 60,830 Chadian returnees (UNHCR). However, 207,154 people are in the border town of Adré, where the food and nutrition situation remains critical despite the mobilization of partners. Humanitarian stakeholders deployed 5,361 metric tons of food aid to 319,137 people, including refugees, returnees, and vulnerable hosts. The daily food ration per individual consists of cereals (425g of sorghum), legumes (100g of cowpeas), and oil (35g). Distribution is made on this basis for a period of one month. However, this ration only covers 1750 Kcal, whereas the required energy needs are 2100 Kcal/day. Hot meals were also provided to 127,064 refugees during their relocation to various sites in the east of the country, including 79,200 in Ouaddaï, 39,464 in Sila, and 8,400 in Wadi Fira. These operations were carried out from the end of July to August 7, 2023. However, it should be noted that the number of individuals receiving aid falls short of the overall population in need of it. In the Lac region, 27,421 people will face consumption deficits due to low food access following atypical stock declines and low income levels. In addition, the small volumes of food assistance provided by humanitarian organizations could not cover the food consumption deficit of the displaced and host households.

Progress of the agropastoral season: Contrary to the seasonal forecasts of the Regional Forum on Climate Prospects for Sudano-Sahelian Africa (PRESASS), which predicted average or above-average cumulative rainfall between August and September, the overall trends observed were close to average in certain localities in the Sudanian zone. Dry sequences coupled with uneven rainfall distribution are reported (Figure 1) in most areas of the country. This change in season had an impact on crop development. In the Sudanian zone, a resumption of rainfall at the end of July led farming activities to intensify. The phenological stage varies between growth and tillering for cereals (millet, sorghum, and rice), while peanuts are at the flowering stage. A significant cycle delay was reported in the Sudanian zone. In Mayo Kebbi, a remarkable reduction in planting was due to long seasonal dry spells. In the Lac region, the rise in fuel prices has prevented the irrigation of agricultural perimeters during sensitive crop development periods. The continuing strike by agents of the National Agency for Support to Rural Development (ANADER), which began at the end of June 2023, is depriving producers of agricultural supervision during the season. Nevertheless, the first fruits of early planting in the Sudanian zone are available in some localities. However, their volumes are lower than in a normal year due to rainfall breaks during the crop cycle.

Sources of income: There is a strong demand for labor in both Logone and Tandjilé to make up for delays caused by seasonal disturbances. On the other hand, revenues from this activity are low due to oversupply, which reduces the daily wages paid. The large influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees in the host areas (Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira Sila) in the east of the country is putting pressure on employment opportunities (agricultural and non-agricultural labor). 

Cereal markets and prices: The supply of food products on the market is low overall; this decline is due to low volumes of internal flows and the cessation of cross-border flows from Sudan following the border closures. In the Moyen Chari region in the south, stock levels are average due to the supply of dry-season sorghum from Salamat and subsidized sales in June and July. The markets at Abéché in the center-east are showing an acceptable level of stocks on the market due to the closure of the border with Sudan, which has redirected the flow of local cereals towards domestic markets. The Abéché market supplies the Ennedi East and West markets, reinforcing commercial stocks and making cereals available on the market. Disruptions to Libya's inflow volumes, following insecurity at the borders, are also having an impact on the availability of imported food products. Most food markets in Tibesti, Borkou and West Ennedi are showing atypical price rises, due to pressure on demand caused by the low volumes of imported and manufactured products available. This trend in demand is further accentuated in Eastern Ennedi by the halt of flows from Sudan. In Moundou in the south-west, sorghum prices are up 23 percent on the five-year average, while in Sarh in the south-central region, millet prices are up 28 percent. This trend is linked to dependence on depleted household cereal stocks and high transport costs. The ongoing crisis in Sudan, insecurity along the borders of Libya and Nigeria, and the persistent effects of the Ukrainian crisis are all contributing to an unusual increase in the prices of imported food items. (rice, pasta, wheat flour and cooking oil). 

Nutritional situation: In addition to challenging conditions leading to chronic malnutrition in Chad, including inadequate hygiene and sanitation practices leading to conditions like diarrhea and acute respiratory infections (ARI), the households limited access to food exacerbates malnutrition. Most Sahelian provinces recorded a high rate of new admissions for acute malnutrition during the lean season. In certain areas within the Sudanian region, the surge in admissions can be attributed to diseases like diarrhea and malaria. For instance, there was a reported five percent increase in Sarh, from 18 percent in July to 23 percent in August. 

Results of the current food situation: Atypical increases in market prices, alongside the strain on livelihoods and civil unrest stemming from attacks by armed groups in the Lac region, are limiting displaced and host households' access to food. These households, along with Sudanese refugees, returnees, and hosts in the eastern host areas, continue to face consumption deficits due to the deterioration in their livelihoods. The disruption of inflows from Libya and the halt to inflows from Sudan have led to atypical price rises for imported and manufactured food products. This limits access to very poor and poor households, refugees, and returnees in these areas. In the western Sahel (BEG and Kanem), food access for poor and very poor households is limited by low food flows (imported and domestic), exacerbating the rise in market prices. Households in these areas are facing consumption deficits and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In the central Sahel (Batha and Guera), atypical price rises on cereal markets are limiting access for households, most of whom depend on them for their consumption. In the southern region, households are adopting crisis coping strategies to meet their consumption needs, including reduced meals, consuming lower-value food more frequently, and harvesting crops before they reach full maturity. Despite this, they have reduced food consumption and are in Stress (IPC Phase 2).

The assumptions in the June 2023 to January 2024 Food Security Outlook report remain unchanged, with the exception of the updated assumptions below:

• Border security context: Protests by opposition and civil society players could occur during the constitutional referendum process in the country's capital cities (Moundou, Sarh, and Doba). The security situation in Tibesti is said to be relatively calm, despite possible localized incursions that may be reported.

• Insecurity in Lac: Incursions by non-state armed groups are expected to persist over the analysis period but remain at levels below those observed in 2022 and well below the trends observed over the previous five years (2017-2021). The effects of the crisis in Niger are likely to have a significant impact on the livelihoods of local communities in the Lac region, which are already plunged into insecurity due to the possible intensification of incursions by non-state armed groups. 

• Security situation in the Sudanian zone: Relative security calm would be conducive to the cropping season in the zone, particularly in Nya Pende, the focus of last spring's conflicts (April to June 2023). However, the departure of more than 16,000 people to the CAR and Cameroon as a result of these conflicts would lead to higher labor costs, which would have an impact on the price of agricultural production. 

• Humanitarian assistance: the successive influx of refugees and returnees from Sudan would put additional pressure on livelihoods. In addition, the lack of food aid due to delays in funding from humanitarian organizations means that the food consumption deficits of refugees, displaced populations, and returnee households in the eastern provinces of the country and in the Lac region cannot be limited. In addition to this factor, the resurgence of persistent insecurity would reinforce the consumption deficits of displaced and host households in the East. 

Between August and September 2023: High food prices and depleted stocks limit food access for very poor and poor households in the Western Sahel (BEG and Kanem) and for displaced households and hosts in the Lac region during the period from August to the end of September. They will remain in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The resurgence of insecurity following clashes between government forces and rebel groups in mid-August 2023 is reducing the volume of imported and manufactured food imports from Libya to Tibesti and Ennedi. In addition to the decline in economic activities, the prohibition of artisanal gold mining, a significant income source, is causing financial instability among poor and very poor households in the Ennedi and Tibesti regions. These households already face restricted access to markets. They are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The influx of refugees and returnees to the three eastern provinces of Ouaddai, Sila and Wadi Fira continues to impact the livelihoods of host households. They compete with host households for available resources, resulting in lower incomes in the context of high staple food prices, thus limiting their access to food. These three provinces are in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

From October 2023 to January 2024: Prices will begin a seasonal decline that will continue until the end of December. They could rise earlier, in late January. However, prices will remain above average throughout the period between October 2023 and January 2024 and could also exceed last year's levels. Increased demand to replenish traders' stocks, particularly in the east and north along the Libyan border, is also expected from October onwards and could continue until January 2024. 

The army's increased deployment and fortified positions, along with the efforts of local authorities to secure southern Libya, are two contributing factors causing disruptions in the cross-border flows from Libya. There will be a decline in the availability of imported food products, leading to higher prices. In addition, the ban on artisanal gold panning would reduce the purchasing power of the very poor and poor households in Tibesti, who are unable to access markets. This limited access would result in food consumption deficits, and they would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In Ennedi Est, the limited flow of food products from other areas will improve seasonally with harvests from October to December. However, it will be below average due to forecasts of lower harvests and the persistence of the Sudan crisis, thereby limiting the availability of food products and affecting food consumption by households in Ennedi East, which will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Ouaddaï and Wadi Fira, despite the harvests and coping strategies used by host households, the additional effect of refugees and returnees’ pressure on host household livelihoods would exacerbate the deterioration in household food consumption from October 2023 to January 2024. Poor and very poor households, as well as refugees and returnees in Wadi Fira and Assongha, will continue to face consumption shortfalls. They would remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

In agricultural areas, the availability of harvests would increase household food access. However, stocks could run out early, creating household dependence on markets earlier in January and keeping demand at above-average levels. Due to their financial precariousness and the low volume of first fruits, poor and very poor households would continue to have reduced minimum food consumption adequacy; they would remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) until the end of January 2024. In the southern zone, the supply of food products will show a seasonal increase, with harvests from September to December. However, it would be below average due to campaign forecasts. Households would be in acute food insecurity Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October onwards.