Good August rainfall improves agropastoral conditions

• Good July/August rains improved the food security situation of households in southern areas of the country, including those areas of return for refugees, allowing for early harvests of short-cycle crops, such as sorghum and peanuts, in spite of the late start-of-season. The availability of milk and expanded sources of income also helped increase food consumption in these areas in August. 

• The growing season in the Sahelian zone is marked by widespread crop planting activities, which are still in progress due to the two-week delay in the start-of-season. However, rainfall conditions have considerably improved since mid-July. The physical condition of livestock is beginning to improve with the growing availability of pasture and the refilling of animal watering holes, though progress remains slow. 

• The southern BEG and Wadi Fira areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the end of September, where poor households continue to face food consumption deficits and will barely meet their basic food needs until the upcoming September harvests. Food security conditions in Kanem, northern BEG, and Batha will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.

• Farming conditions: Rainfall was unevenly distribution geographically and temporally early in the rainy season, specifically in April, May, and June. As a result, several rounds of planting were observed in all southern areas of the country. There is an approximate 10-day lag in crop growth and development, with most sorghum crops in the Sudanian zone in the advanced height growth, heading, and flowering stages of the growing cycle and most sorghum and pearl millet crops in the Sahelian zone in the sprouting-tillering stage. By mid-July, the rainy season fully began and supported widespread crop planting activities across the country. Plowing work continues and the first and second weedings of rice and sorghum fields are currently in progress. The ongoing weeding of sesame fields and ridging of cotton fields and ongoing treatments for crop pests and diseases will continue through the end of August. Thus far, crop health has been stable.
• Farm labor: There is a growing demand for labor with ongoing weeding operations and the larger than usual areas planted in crops as a result of the use of government-subsidized tractors for plowing. This has improved the wage rages for farm labor. The daily rate of pay in Mayo Kebbi, for example, is 750 CFAF, compared with 650 CFAF last year.
• Pastoral conditions: In general, pasture availability pasture in the Sahelian belt is well below-average due to the poor temporal distribution of rainfall and the dry spell in the first half of July. As a result, over 70 percent of the animal population is underweight, particularly in Ouaddaï, Wadi-Fira, BEG, and Kanem. The physical condition of animals in the Sudanian zone is gradually improving, where they are traveling shorter distances in search of pasture and water. Markets are beginning to report deliveries of milk, which is a source of both food and income for poor households. As has been the case in past years, transhumant pastoralists are gathering in the vicinity of the Ouara region and are heading farther north, towards Wadi Fira, as has occurred in previous years.
• Refugee situation: Returnees/refugees from CAR are being supported by the humanitarian community and are receiving regular food assistance from WFP and other humanitarian organizations, mostly in the form of pasta, sorghum, rice, pearl millet, macaroni, etc. In general, they are currently in a good situation and their living conditions are acceptable. With the flare-up in the fighting since August 19^th, there are reports of new waves of returnees/refugees, though they are very limited in size due to the closure of the border.
• Cereal markets and prices: August prices for millet in the Biltine area, which is currently facing a food crisis, were up by 14 percent from the same time last year and 26 percent above the five-year average. This price increase is a result of the unusually low supplies on this cereal market compared with normal seasonal trends due to last year’s 49 percent decline in cereal production and the unusually large presence of transhumant pastoralists in the vicinity of the market, as well as pastoralists fleeing the conflict in the CAR. This same price trend is being reported in refugee receiving areas in the south. Sorghum prices in Sarh are 23 percent above the five-year average, driven by demand from returnees and refugees from CAR. On the other hand, sorghum prices in Bongor (in the Sudanian zone) have dropped by 23 percent due to its long distance from the country’s border with the CAR and market supplies of early crops.
• Current food security situation: In general, food security conditions in the Sudanian zone are satisfactory due to harvests of early crops, income from farm labor, and the availability of milk. Thus, households in this part of the country are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. On the other hand, food consumption by households in the Kanem, northern BEG, and Batha regions is reduced and food security conditions are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) on account of last year’s poor crop production and pastoral conditions. Likewise, poor households in the Wadi Fira and southern BEG areas are still facing food consumption deficits, as they did in July, and are barely meeting their basic food needs, and thus are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) acute food insecurity.

The current situation has not affected the assumptions used by FEWS NET to establish the most-likely scenario for the July through December 2014 period. A full discussion of the scenario can be found in the Food Security Outlook for July through December 2014. However, the following assumption on humanitarian assistance has been updated:

• Humanitarian programs: International organizations (FAO, WFP, and other humanitarian agencies) will provide food and nonfood assistance and improved seeds to 150,000 returnees from the CAR. Such programs are planned, funded, and likely through December 2014. 

Starting in October, new harvests will be available and the food security outlook for October to December will be good, as is usual. Households across the country will be able to meet their food needs more easily and their dependence on market purchasing will be sharply reduced. There will be an improvement in milk availability and income from crop sales and market gardening activities around semi-permanent and year-round water points. There could be an improvement in food consumption during this period and most households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through December.