Humanitarian assistance needs remain high despite the harvest

• Although needs will slightly reduce from October to January because of the harvest, FEWS NET estimates increasing needs from April onwards with between 500,000 and 749,999 people needing humanitarian food assistance between April and May 2025. The majority of the population in need are internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees in the east and north-west of the country, in areas with significant security challenges and flooding.
• Haut-Mbomou, Haute-Kotto, Ouham-Pendé and Vakaga have high amounts of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity or higher. These prefectures, which are home to large numbers of IDPs and refugees, continue to be the target of frequent attacks that disrupt daily lives, market operations and livelihood activities. Loss of life and forced population displacements are frequently registered, with many households facing repeated displacement as a result of the conflict.
• The harvest is expected to significantly improve food availability in secure areas, particularly in the north and center. However, after several years of insecurity in conflict-affected areas, the majority of poor households, having lost their livelihoods and their ability to cope with shocks, are unable to cover their food needs without resorting to survival strategies such as selling productive assets.
• Food assistance needs will remain high through May 2025. The combined impacts of persistent conflict, insecurity, and seasonal flooding will result in high acute food insecurity in areas of greatest concern throughout the scenario period. 

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• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

In the Central African Republic, the majority of households depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. In addition to their own agricultural production, households rely heavily on temporary agricultural labor, the sale of poultry and small ruminants, fishing, and gathering for consumption and sale. Throughout the country, cassava is the staple food, harvested all year round. In the southern region, the lean season lasts from April to June, with the maize and peanut harvest starting in July. In the north, the lean season runs from July to September, followed by the millet harvest in October.

CAR has experienced conflict and persistent insecurity, marked by frequent coups d'état, military uprisings, and authoritarian rule. The situation deteriorated considerably in 2013 when a coalition of rebels overthrew the president, leading to violent sectarian clashes. The country remains plagued by instability, with armed groups controlling vast territories, particularly in the east of the country. At the same time, the Central African Republic is rich in natural resources, which has exacerbated conflicts as various groups vie for control of the mines. 

Conflict is the main cause of acute food insecurity in CAR. Despite widespread chronic poverty, amplified by structural problems such as the lack of infrastructure and basic social services, acute food insecurity is generally contained due to a favorable agroclimatic environment with regular and abundant rainfall. Most households are able to meet their basic kilocalorie needs and other non-food needs in the absence of a severe shock. However, civil insecurity, which restricts access to fields, leading to a reduction and abandonment of cultivated areas, limits the ability of households to feed themselves and carry out income-generating activities. In addition, the drop in agricultural production and the disruption to normal market functioning have led to an increase in food prices, further restricting households' access to food.

In addition to conflict, the country frequently suffers from multiple shocks, such as seasonal flooding and a highly unstable macroeconomic situation. Floods, which generally peak between mid-August and September, often cause damage to infrastructure and household property. Poor road conditions and the geographical isolation of certain populations exacerbate transportation costs and food prices throughout the country, particularly in conflict-affected areas. Economic opportunities are limited, especially in sparsely populated and remote eastern regions, making it difficult for households to recover from successive shocks. In addition, the influx of refugees from neighboring countries such as Sudan and the DRC, contributes to increasing humanitarian needs throughout the year.

National

The continued clashes between the Central African Armed Forces and armed groups, the conflicts linked to transhumance, and flooding continue to force new displacements, although a slight overall downward trend is observed in the total number of IDPs in the country. According to the IOM, at the beginning of September 2024, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in CAR was 431,966 (Figures 2 and 3), representing a two percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023 and a 25.6 percent decrease compared to peak displacement in December 2018.

Sporadic attacks prevent access to certain areas, impose heavy illegal taxes, and limit the possibilities of income-generating activities for poor households, such as hunting, fishing, gathering, and wood collection. 

Repeated fuel shortages are driving up fuel prices in the informal market, disrupting supply chains, increasing transportation costs, and exerting upward pressure on food prices. Food prices remain above average, particularly in the areas most affected by insecurity (Figure 4), and limit poor households' access to food. In addition, humanitarian organizations are also affected by the fuel shortage, forcing them to reduce their distribution operations and humanitarian assistance support.

Since May 2024, a ban on the export of charcoal and firewood has been in place. This government decision aimed to limit deforestation and its environmental impacts. However, it could have negative short-term repercussions on the incomes of households dependent on this activity. It is important to note that for poor households, the sale of charcoal and firewood represents an important source of income, enabling them to purchase essential food and non-food items.

Area of Concern: Far East of the country

• The extreme southeast of the country continues to be the location of clashes between armed groups and the government army and its allies. These attacks are causing loss of life, population displacement, and limiting access to natural resources.
• The presence of large numbers of Sudanese refugees in the Vakaga prefecture continues to exacerbate pressures on local economies, livelihoods, basic social services, and the cost of living.
• Many years of conflict, marked by numerous population displacements as well as house and brush fires, have weakened the agricultural production capacity of households.

Humanitarian food assistance

• By 2024, the Food Security Cluster plans to provide food assistance to 1.5 million acutely food-insecure people. According to OCHA (through Financial Tracking Service), as of August 1, 2024, a cumulative total of 755,000 people in CAR have received assistance, representing around 50 percent of the target population.

National assumptions 

• Agricultural harvests for the 2024-2025 season are now available throughout the country. Food crop production should be equivalent to or higher than the average for the last five years due to the increasingly prevailing lull in conflict in many parts of the country. Households should be able to increase their planted area this year, and the good levels of rainfall recorded since the start of the season should enable average to above-average production in all regions of the country.
• Pockets of insecurity are expected to persist throughout the country, which are characterized by sporadic attacks by armed groups against positions held by the government army and its allies. The eastern regions (Haut-Mbomou, Haute-Kotto and Vakaga sub-prefectures), which are the hardest hit by these attacks, are likely to continue to register human casualties and internal population displacements. However, the number of newly displaced people is expected to fall as the frequency and intensity of attacks is reduced.
• Fuel supply disruptions are, however, expected to continue throughout the scenario period. This will likely maintain pressure on transportation costs for imported goods such as rice, vegetable oil, and pasta. These difficulties are also likely to hinder urban and intercity transportation, formal and informal trade, humanitarian interventions, and even peacekeeping activities.
• Security constraints are likely to disrupt poor households' access to sources of food and income from own production, agricultural labor and production, labor at mining sites, and the sale of foraging products, game, and firewood. 

Sub-national assumptions for the Far East of the country 

• The arrivals of Sudanese refugee are likely to continue and increase as the rainy season ends in early October as road accessibility improves.
• Robberies and theft are expected to continue to disrupt supplies to Birao and Ndélé markets. Disruptions to trade flows from Sudan and Chad are expected to continue during the scenario period beginning in February, keeping food prices at very high levels, beyond the reach of poor households.

National assumption

• Scheduled humanitarian food assistance should be carried out normally. The cessation of the rains in October will be favorable to road access and improve the possibilities of intervention. However, fuel costs are likely to impede smooth program implementation.

In security-challenged areas such as the Haut-Mbomou and Haute-Kotto sub-prefectures, which are regularly the target of attacks by armed groups and host large numbers of IDPs and refugees, the majority of households can only access their fields and wild food gathering, hunting, or fishing areas within a maximum distance of 10 km from their village, sometimes even less. The cumulative effects of repeated shocks, such as seasonal flooding and civil insecurity, have a negative impact on agricultural production capacity and erode household livelihoods. Recent harvests are only expected to cover food consumption needs for 2-3 months, and their low level of purchasing power will not allow them to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to strategies such as selling productive assets or means of transportation, consuming seed stocks, or taking children out of school. Others risk not being able to meet their minimum kilocalorie requirements and will be increasingly forced to reduce their meal frequency and portion sizes. Many households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between October 2024 and May 2025, and the number of food-insecure people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher is likely to increase during the February to May lean season. A small proportion of people living in the most precarious areas, who have faced repeated forced displacement due to conflict and flooding, could face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity.

Conversely, in areas with better civil security, most poor households are able to meet their basic food and non-food needs because of good harvests. In addition, households have access to a greater number of opportunities for temporary agricultural employment, gathering, hunting, and fishing activities, as well as artisanal mineral exploitation, enabling them to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through January 2025. Between February and May, land preparation and seeding activities will begin in the southern zone. These activities will provide agricultural employment opportunities for poor households and help them cope with rising food and oil prices. However, as the poorest households deplete their food reserves, many may find it difficult to meet their minimum food requirements, either because market prices are well above average, or because of the ongoing recovery from the impact of seasonal flooding during the rainy season. These households are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean season from March to May 2025.