New outbreak of violence threatens food security

• The perceptible surge in increasingly widespread violence across the country is fueling new population displacements, further disrupting marketing systems, and threatening food security in many areas of the country.

• With the deterioration in the security situation, the number of returnees is declining and there are reports of new population displacements in Ouaka, Ouham, and Bangui in particular. These new population movements are growing the size of the internally displaced population and fueling the increasingly large projected needs for assistance since the new flare-up in violence.

• A persistent decline in food availability and incomes is preventing the growing population of IDPs from maintaining their food access and keeping them in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. This could continue to be the case for displaced populations and affect more local households facing food production deficits between now and March 2016 due to the effects of the ongoing violence.

There was a relative improvement in the security situation in the Central African Republic between May and July/August 2015 with the signature of peace accords by the government and armed rebel groups. This improvement in security conditions was accompanied by a gradually increasing flow of returning IDPs and refugees. However, the situation remained precarious and volatile and abruptly deteriorated with the attacks in Ouham, Ouaka, and Kemo prefectures in August/September 2015. Since the end of September/beginning of October 2015, the attacks in these prefectures in the Northwestern and Central regions of the country have been followed by a surge in violence in Bangui, accompanied by new population displacements. The situation of the IDPs was quickly strained by the growing size of the affected population. According to information supplied by the UNOCHA on the effects of the violence in Bangui, the number of displaced persons in the capital city of Bangui more than doubled between June/July, a period of relative calm, and September/October, with the resumption of hostilities. In fact, the DP camps in Bangui, several of which were actually shut down with the previously reported improvement in security conditions, have estimated the number of new arrivals in September-October 2015 at over 40,000, which puts the total number of IDPs in Bangui at approximately 70,000, compared with less than 30,000 in June/July 2015. The new flare-up in violence has triggered similar increases in the number of displaced persons in other areas of the country, particularly in Kemo, Basse Kotto, and Ouaka. According to the Commission on Population Movements quoted by the UNOCHA, there could be as many as 400,000 internally displaced persons as of September/October 2015, compared with approximately 370,000 in June/July 2015.

The ongoing violence in cities and along major arteries has also sharply reduced the flow of trade in general and food trade in particular between different parts of the country and between the Central African Republic and neighboring countries such as Cameroon. According to the UNOCHA Flash Bulletin released on September 30, 2015, markets in the capital supplying DP camps are open and relatively accessible. However, tightening market supplies are reportedly driving up prices. Earned income, mainly from petty trade, the craft trades, the sale of wood, and casual labor, is down sharply. Unlike the case in years prior to the security crisis, sales of crops, animal products, and fish products account for only a very small share of household income. The deterioration in the security situation is also restricting mobility with the enforcement of security measures and limiting access to displaced populations for the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

In the wake of the recent violence, the ONG ACTED conducted a multi-sector RRM (Rapid Response Mechanism) assessment of conditions in Bambari subprefecture in Ouaka prefecture on October 6 – 7, 2015. In fact, the violent events of September 28, 2015 had displaced another 664 households (or 1,939 people), adding to the 5,181 previously displaced persons. According to the assessment by ACTED, the DPs had acceptable food consumption scores owing to a distribution of food rations to displaced households. The assessment also found all households to have only one week or less worth of food reserves, which is unusual during the harvest season. These same results can be extrapolated to the Northern, Central, and Southern regions of the country with displaced populations in similar circumstances.

Food availability for the current consumption year extending through July/October 2016 (depending on the area) will, once again, be well below-average and fall well short of household consumption needs due to a combination of many factors. This year, the expected shortfall in national food production with the abandonment of farms by households fleeing conflict areas will, once again, sharply reduce food availability from household food stocks and on local markets. The conflict will disrupt trade channels, sharply reducing the volume of imports and other trade flows. For the most part, these adverse conditions will significantly affect areas and populations in the Central, Northern, Northeastern, and Southern regions of the country, where the security situation remains extremely volatile.

There will be well-below-average food availability over the coming months with the disruption of the food growing season by the conflict and associated population displacements. The persistent violence could continue to reduce domestic and foreign trade flows and keep prices up, affecting the food security situation of populations with small earned incomes. The reported Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity in October will extend through March 2016, affecting displaced populations as well as certain non-displaced populations in high-tension areas such as Ouaka, Ouham, Nana-Gribizi, Kemo, Mambéré Kadéi, Nana-Mambéré, and Loubaye in particular, where there will be poor harvests of food crops, with limited market supplies and soaring prices. Thus, there will be larger areas affected by food insecurity, with growing numbers of people in need of assistance between October 2015 and March 2016.