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Security situation remains volatile, particularly in the center and center-north of the country

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Central African Republic
  • May 2015
Security situation remains volatile, particularly in the center and center-north of the country

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through September 2015
  • Key Messages
    • The security situation is still unstable despite the Bangui Forum for National Reconciliation held in May 2015. There are reports of continuing security problems in the central and north-central reaches of the country, where there are large concentrations of internally displaced persons.

    • The current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity affecting most internally displaced households and in certain host community areas for IDPs are expected to continue through at least the month of September. While the area as a whole is classified in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) stage of food insecurity, small numbers of especially worse-off households are more than likely facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with severe food consumption deficits.

    • The growing season is getting underway across the country. However, with the fears brought on by continuing civil security problems and the abandonment of their fields by displaced households in other parts of the country, there will more than likely be reduced area planted again this year.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

     

    National

    • Armed conflict across the country
    • Displacement of numerous populations from conflict areas under attack by armed groups
    • Growing food consumption needs with the presence of DPs in host households
    • Premature depletion of food reserves
    • Closure of the border with Chad
    • Below-average volume of cereal trade
    • Continuation of the conflict
    • Continuing population displacements
    • A growing season marred by the downsizing of cropped areas resulting in a shortfall in food production
    • A continued below-average volume of cereal trade

     

    Displaced populations and host households in Ouham, Nana Gribizi,  Ouaka, Haut-Mbomou, Mambéré, and Kadei

    • Ethnic violence
    • Presence of new DPs in host households and camp sites
    • Market disruptions
    • Sharp contraction in income-generating activities
    • Heightened dependence on humanitarian assistance programs hampered by continuing attacks
    • Continuation of current anomalies

    Projected Outlook through September 2015

    Since peaking in January 2015, tensions have reportedly quieted in certain conflict areas. However, the lull in the inter-communal conflict is most apparent in conflict areas in the southern part of the country profiting from the presence of international military peace-keeping forces. The hopes raised by the organization of the forum for national reconciliation could be responsible for this respite and the attendant return of certain displaced populations. In fact, according to the preliminary report on the multi-sectoral assessment conducted by Action Against Hunger (ACF) over the period from May 8th through May 10th of this year, an estimated 1,800 DPs or 360 households have returned to the city of Koui (in Ouham Pende prefecture) with the gradual improvement in security conditions in that area after the flight of most of its population in February 2014.

    However, in general, there are continuing security problems all across the country triggering new waves of population displacements, which are affecting household food security and livelihoods. There are reports of recent mass population movements in the country’s Central and North-Central regions. In fact, according to the status report on IDP housing sites drawn up by the Commission on Population Movements (CMP) in early April of 2015, the sites with the largest numbers of IDPs (more than 30,000 people) are in Ouaka prefecture (in the Central region) and Nana Gribizi and Ouham prefectures (in the North-Central region).

    A number of NGOs have conducted multi-sectoral assessments at selected housing sites for internally displaced persons to take stock of the humanitarian situation. The findings by the multi-sectoral assessments conducted in April and May of 2015 by the NGOs Solidarités International and Première Urgence-Aide Médicale Internationale, respectively, at IDP sites in prefectures in the North-Central region show similar food security conditions. More specifically, the food security situation of most displaced households is marked by food consumption gaps and depleted livelihoods with inadequate and steadily deteriorating sources of food and income.

    According to the FAO, as a result of the conflict, this year, there are reportedly large-scale population movements by pastoralists fleeing their homesteads under constant attack, particularly in the north-central and western reaches of the country. The Central and Southeastern regions are serving as holding areas for internally displaced pastoralists. This could undermine security conditions in these receiving areas, where there is reportedly a precarious period of calm.

    The growing season is getting underway across the country but, compared with normal conditions in April, there was slightly less and lighter than usual rainfall activity into the month of May. The hostile environment serving as the backdrop for this growing season will likely reduce the size of cropped areas, with continuing civil security problems resulting in the abandonment of croplands by farmers fleeing conflict areas.

    Looking ahead, with the ongoing conflict in the central and north-central reaches of the country, there will be continuing population movements to areas perceived to be less affected by the security crisis. This has already eroded local livelihoods in settlement areas and created food shortages for displaced populations. The worst-off households, particularly those in remote areas, will be facing food consumption and livelihood protection deficits. The result will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between May and September, with small isolated groups of households with more severe food consumption deficits facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

    Figures Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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