Crisis (IPC Phase 3) results expected in a context of persistent insecurity

• FEWS NET estimates that 500,000 to 749,999 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance from from June to August (the peak of the lean season). The population in need is concentrated in the east and northwest of the country, mainly in areas with high concentrations of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), refugees, and flood victims. 
• Populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are reported in the prefectures most affected by the conflict, notably Haut-Mbomou, Haute-Kotto, Ouham-Pendé, and Vakaga. These areas of concern are home to many IDPs and refugees, and frequent attacks continue to disrupt the normal functioning of markets, population movements, agricultural activities, and other income-generating activities such as gathering and fishing.
• The September harvests will likely improve the food situation of poor households in the center and north, who are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse outcomes. However, high price levels combined with poor coping capacity due to several years of conflict have eroded their livelihoods, and will likely maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes despite increased crop availability.
• Food assistance needs will remain high until January 2025. The combined effects of conflict and prolonged insecurity, as well as seasonal flooding, will result in high levels of acute food insecurity in areas of greatest concern throughout the scenario period.

Read more

The following links provide further information: 

• Last remote monitoring report
• Latest Key messages 
• FEWS NET scenario development methodology at a glance 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analyses
• FEWS NET's approach to analyzing humanitarian food assistance

In the Central African Republic (CAR), the majority of households depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. In addition to own-agricultural production, households rely heavily on temporary agricultural labor, the sale of poultry and small ruminants, and fishing and gathering for consumption and sale. Throughout the country, cassava is the staple food, harvested year round (Figure 1). In the southern region, the lean season lasts from April to June, with the maize and peanut harvests starting in July. In the north, the lean season runs from July to September, followed by the millet harvest in October.

CAR has experienced conflict and persistent insecurity, marked by frequent coups d'état, military uprisings, and authoritarian rule. The situation deteriorated considerably in 2013 when a coalition of rebels overthrew the president, leading to violent sectarian clashes. The country remains plagued by instability, with armed groups controlling vast territories, particularly in the east of the country. At the same time, CAR is rich in natural resources, which has exacerbated conflicts as various groups vie for control of the mines.

Conflict is the main cause of acute food insecurity in CAR. Despite widespread chronic poverty, amplified by structural problems such as the lack of infrastructure and basic social services, much of the population does not face acute food insecurity due to a favorable agroclimatic environment marked by regular and abundant rainfall. Most households are able to meet their basic food and non-food needs in the absence of a severe shock. However, insecurity, which restricts access to fields and leads to a reduction and abandonment of cultivated areas, limits the ability of households to feed themselves and carry out income-generating activities. In addition, the drop in agricultural production and the disruption to the normal functioning of markets have led to an increase in food prices, further restricting households' access to food.

In addition to conflict, the country frequently suffers from multiple shocks, such as seasonal flooding and a highly unstable macroeconomic situation. Floods, which generally peak between mid-August and September, often cause damage to infrastructure and household property. Poor road conditions and the geographical isolation of certain populations exacerbate transport costs and food prices throughout the country, particularly in conflict-affected areas. Economic opportunities are limited, especially in sparsely populated and remote eastern regions, making it difficult for households to recover from successive shocks. In addition, the influx of refugees from neighboring countries such as Sudan and the DRC contributes to increasing humanitarian needs throughout the year.

 National

• Clashes between the national army and rebel groups are causing population displacements and deaths. The conflict continues to disrupt households' access to fields and other income-generating activities, notably gathering wild foods, fishing, and petty trade.
• The number of IDPs remains high despite some voluntary returns in several localities. As of March 31, 2024, the total number of IDPs in CAR stood at 521,857. Most are concentrated in the prefectures of Ouham (Kabo and Markounda), Nana-Gribizi (Mbrès), and Mbomou (Bakouma).
• The border between Chad and CAR, which had been closed for 10 years, was finally reopened in May 2024, . The movement of people and goods has now been re-established at the border town of Sido.
• For several weeks petroleum products have been in short supply at service stations, causing difficulties in transport and in the daily lives of Central African households. Humanitarian organizations have also been affected by the fuel shortage, and have been forced to scale back their supply operations.
• A ban on the export of charcoal and firewood has been in effect since May 2024. This government measure aims to combat deforestation and its environmental consequences, but is likely to have a negative impact on the incomes of some households living from this activity, at least in the short term; the sale of charcoal and firewood is a very important source of income for poor households, making a significant contribution to the purchase of food and non-food goods.

Area of Concern: Far East of the country

• Due to frequent attacks by rebel groups against Central African Armed Forces (FACA) national army positions, local people find it difficult to venture within a radius of more than 10 kilometers from their homes to access their plots of land and carry out their traditional activities.
• Due to insecurity along the border, traffic between Sudan and CAR has been severely disrupted. Sudan supplies food products to several CAR towns, including Ndélé in the Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture and Birao in the Vakaga prefecture. However, prices of staple foods have not risen, according to WFP price data (Figure 2), reflecting the availability of supplies from Cameroon and the DRC. 
• Ongoing clashes in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to lead to large refugee influx in the northeast of the Central African Republic. Since April 2023, some 30,806 forcibly displaced people from Sudan have arrived in CAR.

Humanitarian food assistance

• In 2024, the Food Security Cluster (FSC) plans to provide food assistance to 1.5 million people suffering from acute food insecurity. According to OCHA (through Financial Tracking Service), as of May 10, 2024, assistance has been provided to 376,000 people in CAR.

National assumptions 

• Crop production for the 2024 season in areas not affected by conflict is expected to be average and in line with seasonal forecasts which predict a normal rainy season from June to September with average to above-average rainfall. 
• Rain and river flooding remain a risk in many parts of the country. Localized flooding is expected between June and August, particularly along rivers and in major cities. These floods could result in the loss of crops, harvests, production goods, and equipment, infrastructure, and even human lives in some localities.
• Civil insecurity is likely to persist in some areas, continuing to disrupt the accessibility and functioning of markets and basic social services. However, the frequency and scale of attacks should continue their slightly downward trend over the coming months, encouraging voluntary IDP returns.
• The disruption to the country's fuel supply is set to continue in the short and medium term, notwithstanding the measures taken by the government. This would lead to higher prices for petroleum products and a shortage of hydrocarbons at service stations, with consequent increases in the cost of transporting goods, foodstuffs, and humanitarian operations.
• The reopening of the border between CAR and Chad should enable a more regular supply of products imported from Chad to the northwestern areas of the country.

Sub-national assumptions for the Far East of the country

• The crisis in Sudan is expected to continue to drive an influx of thousands of refugees to the far northeast. 
• Incidents such as robberies and hold-ups on certain road axes (Birao-Am Dafock, Boromata-Tchad, and Boromata-Sikikédévont) are expected to disrupt supplies to the Birao and Ndélé markets in particular.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Humanitarian food aid is scheduled to be delivered as normal. However, during the first half of the projection period (June-September), it could be delayed due to the state of the roads which make access to certain areas difficult.

In areas of high insecurity linked to the presence of armed groups or large numbers of displaced people, which weigh heavily on the local economy, such as the Haut Mbomou and Haute Kotto sub-prefectures, many households are likely to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until January 2025. In these areas, households can only access their fields, gather, hunt, or fish within a radius of 10 kilometers (or less) of their villages, which considerably reduces their ability to satisfy their consumption needs. Other households are unable to access their fields at all. Poor households and IDPs in these areas will likely resort to coping strategies such as depleting their seed stocks or selling their remaining productive assets to obtain money to purchase food. Some of the households worst affected by conflict will be facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. 

In the southern areas unaffected by conflict, the arrival of the maize and peanut harvests in July should facilitate seasonal improvements in household access to food and income between June and September. In the north, the millet, sorghum, rice, and cassava harvests will improve household access to food and income from October onwards. In both zones, in addition to own-production, households will have access to a greater number of temporary agricultural work opportunities during the harvest period to earn extra income to meet their essential non-food needs. In addition, gathering, hunting, and fishing activities, as well as artisanal diamond and gold mining, will provide a source of income and food for some poor households, enabling Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025. The poorest households, whose livelihoods have been eroded by years of conflict, face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes and will struggle to meet their essential non-food needs until January 2025.