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The security crisis is the main threat to the ongoing growing season

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Central African Republic
  • June 2017
The security crisis is the main threat to the ongoing growing season

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  • Key Messages
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2016
  • Key Messages
    • The presence and activities of armed groups are feeding the new outbreak of violence in affected areas. This is creating a troubling humanitarian situation and continuing to displace local populations to DP camps, host households, or the brush. According to estimates by the UNOCHA, there are still more than 500,000 internally displaced persons in the country. Most of these households are still without access to basic social services, making it necessary to continue to provide humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

    • The growing season is going normally, with the average levels of rainfall over the period from April 1st through June 20, 2017 helping to promote the normal pursuit of seasonal activities such as farm work. This is creating opportunities for poor households to earn extra income, enabling them to maintain their food access. However, the escalation in security incidents across the country could negatively affect crop planting and crop maintenance activities, translating into below-average levels of crop production.

    • With the residual effects of the civil conflict disrupting the smooth operation of markets and major sources of food and income, certain households of DPs and returnees, poor resident households, and host households in the Northwest, Southwest, Southeast, and Central CAR (in Ouham, Ouham Pende, Nana Gribizi, Vakaga, and Ouaka) will remain in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) phase of acute food insecurity through at least January 2018. Most of these households are unable to meet their basic needs and have very limited staple food access.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Conflict areas

    ·    Sharp rise in the prices of imported foods and livestock

    ·    Limited access to fields and seeds, fewer employment opportunities, and lack of access to animal traction

    ·    Atypical decline in household food stocks 

    ·    Below-average levels of income from most sources

    ·    Continuing displacements due to the persistent fighting

    ·    Lower supplies on markets in conflict areas

    ·     Steady rise in the prices of imported foods

    ·    Smaller areas planted in crops and lower levels of crop production for 2017/2018 and income from farm labor


    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2016

    There are continuing civil security problems across the Central African Republic, with attacks by armed groups and the looting and burning of homes taking human lives and triggering large-scale population displacements to camps, host households, or the brush. The latest estimates by the UNOCHA as of May 25, 2017 put the number of displaced persons in affected areas at approximately 503,600, five percent more than in the previous month. The continued fighting in these areas is curtailing the access of local populations to basic social services and significantly heightening their vulnerability. According to the findings by the Return Intention Survey of DPs in Bambari conducted by the UNHCR in May 2017, nearly 80 percent of the households interviewed did not want to leave the camps, lamenting the lack of security in their home areas, the destruction of their homes, and their lack of sufficient physical and financial resources.

    Ten-day satellite rainfall (RFE) estimates for the period from April 1st through June 20th put rainfall levels in most prefectures at or above the seasonal average, with no signs of any water shortages. These water conditions are helping to promote crop planting activities and crop growth and development in farming areas of the country, creating income-generating opportunities for poor households. However, most households in conflict areas have limited access to farmland and, in addition, are highly dependent on farm input assistance in the form of seeds and farm implements due to the persistent civil conflict. Crop production levels are expected to be below-average.

    The armed fighting is impeding humanitarian operations and limiting the access of humanitarian workers to poor and displaced households in affected areas. According to the OCHA concept note for the CAR allocation strategy issued in April 2017, there are regular targeted attacks of humanitarian workers on certain roads or at their work sites in the prefectures of Basse Kotto, Mbomou, Ouaka, Ouham-Pendé, and Nana-Gribizi. This is disrupting the flow of assistance and creating unfavorable food security conditions. In addition, the lack of sufficient donor funding is disrupting global humanitarian assistance coordination mechanisms.

    Households in affected areas of Ouham, Ouham Pende, Nana Gribizi, Ouaka, and Vakaga are pursuing livelihood strategies such as animal production, hunting, fishing, foraging, social assistance, petty trade, temporary jobs, and farm labor. On the other hand, the majority of these households also have larger basic nonfood expenses for items such as communication, transportation, education, health, and clothing. Thus, their generally below-average incomes from normal sources are preventing them from purchasing adequate food supplies on the market and meeting their food and other vital needs.

    The upcoming harvests in September could improve food availability and make poor households less vulnerable to food insecurity. However, the food security situation will remain precarious due to the continued market disruptions, atypically low household purchasing power, and the disruptions to the livelihoods of displaced populations and poor resident households in Bangui and the country’s Northwestern, Southern, and Central-Western regions. Even with food assistance, the security situation is preventing these households from effectively using their livelihood assets and limiting their food consumption to inadequate quantities of less varied foods such as cassava leaves, tubers, and other wild yams. Thus, there will continue to be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity in these areas through at least January 2018. 

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Figure 1: RFE anomalies for the period from April 10th through June 20th compared with the 2006-2015 average

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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