The main threat to the current growing season is the security crisis

• The good levels of rainfall between April 1st and June 20th, 2016 are promoting the normal progress of land preparation, crop planting, and crop maintenance activities. This is creating more job opportunities for poor households. However, crop production across the country could remain below the pre-conflict average for yet another year due to residual effects of the insecurity.

• Pastoral conditions are gradually improving with the normal start of the rainy season spurring the recovery of pastures and the replenishment of watering holes. However, income levels from the sale of livestock and animal products are below-average due to the reduced size of livestock herds as a result of the conflict. This is keeping the food insecurity of poor pastoral households at troubling levels.

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  According to OCHA estimates in May 2016, there were 415,256 IDPs in Bangui and the southwestern, central, and northwestern prefectures. Poor resident households in these areas depleted their food reserves in March and, like displaced households, have very limited purchasing power. Thus, these households are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and will remain in this stage throughout the outlook period (June 2016 through January 2017).

   

The civil security situation appears to have stabilized in June compared with previous months. According to OCHA estimates in May 2016, the number of IDPs living in camps and with host households has been relatively stable since February 2016 and are down slightly, at 415,256. However, most of these households still have limited livelihoods and are largely dependent on humanitarian assistance. In addition, with the persistent attacks by armed groups, preventive population displacements, and acts of violence, the security situation is a continuing source of concern, particularly in the Bangui area and in southwestern, central, and northwestern prefectures. 

According to ten-day satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) for the period from April 1^st through June 20^th, rain coverage in practically all parts of the country is at or above the ten-year seasonal average (Figure 1). This is helping to create very favorable conditions for planting of crops and for income-earning opportunities for poor households from farm labor. However, the insecurity issues, which limit the supply of farm work, are keeping these income-earning opportunities at below-average levels. According to information relayed by the Food Security Cluster, as of May 30, 2016, only 23 percent of the 60,000 households scheduled to receive farm inputs for the current growing season have had access to this assistance. This delay in the delivery of farm inputs and the restricted access to land suggests a potential crop production shortfall for the third consecutive year.

In spite of the near-normal start of the rainy season, herd movements are still limited as a result of the continuing conflict. According to the second meeting of the FAO platform on pastoralism and transhumance in June 2016, the civil conflict since 2013 has negatively affected herd size and confined pastoralists to localized areas. Market supplies of livestock will steadily tighten, with the risk of creating a beef shortage, and meat prices on retail markets such as the Bangui market will stay above-average.

In general, the ongoing conflict is continuing to disrupt trade. There is a relatively small flow of domestic and cross-border food trade, and market supplies are still lower than in 2012/2013, prior to the crisis. In addition, with the observance of Ramadan in June-July, there is likely to be a growing household demand for staple foods, putting upward pressure on local market prices in areas with Muslim populations. These conditions, heightened by a harsher than usual lean season, are especially hard on poor households living with host families highly dependent on local markets for their food supplies and displaced households dependent on food assistance. These households have a less favorable food security outlook.

As of September, the improvement in food availability across the country with the upcoming harvests will create a more positive food security situation. However, with the smaller than average crop yields for the third consecutive year, restrictions on access to land for harvesting crops and gathering wild plant foods, and disruptions on local markets, there will continue to be below-average food and income sources. Thus, there will be limited food access and persistent food consumption gaps through at least January 2017. IDPs and poor resident households in Bangui and the northwestern, southern, and central-western regions will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity.