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Fresh outbreak of violence triggers new population displacements

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Central African Republic
  • January 2015
Fresh outbreak of violence triggers new population displacements

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook Through June 2015
  • Key Messages
    • According to OCHA, continued violence has expanded the size of the internally displaced population, which has grown from 430,000 people in early December 2014 to 440,000 people as of mid-January 2015.

    • Displaced households whose livelihoods have been seriously disrupted will face the most severe food security outcomes. Most displaced populations will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through the end of June, with a small group of households expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of emergency humanitarian assistance.

    • With the shortfall in food production, reduced household incomes, and the added needs of IDPs, poor resident households no longer have adequate available food stocks to meet their food needs. These poor households have been facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity in January 2015 with additional households declining into this phase by May/June 2015.

    ZONECURRENT ANOMALIESPROJECTED ANOMALIES
    National
    • Large shortfall in crop production compared with consumer needs and the pre-crisis period

    • New outbreak of civil insecurity
      Growing numbers of displaced persons

    • Losses of income and property

    • Poor purchasing power for resident households

    • Closure of the border with Chad

    • Below-average flow of cereal trade

    • Earlier than usual market dependence to meet food needs with the decline in national crop production of over 50 percent compared to average.

    • Continued isolation of conflict areas, impacting food trade
      Continued below-average cereal trade flows

    • Growing numbers of people dependent on humanitarian assistance

    Displaced populations in Ouham, Ouham Pendé, and Kémo
    • New outbreak of violence in receiving areas
      Mounting fears and restrictions on trade

    • Heightened dependence on humanitarian assistance

    • Poor access to humanitarian assistance

    • Continuation of current anomalies

    Poor resident/non-displaced populations across the country

    • Growing consumer demand, driven by the presence of IDPs
    • Continuation of current anomalies

     


    Projected Outlook Through June 2015

    There are renewed sociopolitical tensions with a new round of attacks reported in late 2014 and early 2015, particularly in prefectures in the western and central regions of the country. According to OCHA, this new outbreak of violence has driven the number of internally displaced persons up from 430,000 in early December 2014 to 440,000 as of mid-January 2015, adding approximately 10,000 new IDPs in the span of a month. The findings by the emergency food security assessment jointly conducted by the WFP, FAO, ACF, IEDA Relief, TRIANGLE, and ACTED in collaboration with the Central African Bureau of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Institut Centrafricain des Statistiques et des Etudes Economiques et Sociales) in September 2014 found approximately half the IDPs are housed with other families, 40 percent are living in camps, and 10 percent are living in the forests.

    The deteriorating food security situation is also aggravating the already critical humanitarian situation in the CAR. For example, according to the joint assessment report mentioned above, more than one out of every two households has been affected by the theft of crops and animals and/or have suffered losses of assets, income, and property as a result of violence. The fighting has also affected health facilities and personnel, whose numbers are proving insufficient to meet needs in the face of the current destruction and influx of IDPs fleeing conflict. This could eventually undermine health and nutritional conditions across the country.

    The humanitarian community has drawn up a strategic response plan for 2015 designed to deliver humanitarian assistance to a population of approximately two million people, requiring over US$600 million in funding. According to the information presented in the January 7, 2015 OCHA Bulletin, as of late December 2014 / early January 2015, only 68 percent of funding needs for planned deliveries of humanitarian assistance under the strategic response plan had been met. In addition to this cutback in humanitarian assistance as a result of the shortfall in funding for the strategic response plan, certain displaced populations have had very little access to assistance due to the poor security situation, which has caused them to seek shelter in wooded areas inaccessible to relief workers.

    According to the joint WFP/FAO food security assessment as of September 2014, the majority of the country’s most highly food-insecure households involve poor resident households, displaced or returnee households, and households whose main food sources are market purchase, gifts, or food assistance. Most of these households are concentrated in Mambéré-Kadéi, Ouham, Nana Gribizi, Ouham-Pendé, Bangui, and Haut-Mbomou prefectures.

    The number of food-insecure households will continue to grow with the approach of this year’s lean season, which will begin earlier than usual, in March instead of April/May. The IDP presence in host households will also increase consumption needs for affected households which, with their limited purchasing power on local markets, will face food deficits and, by extension, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between April and June 2015.

    Most displaced populations, whose livelihoods have been severely disrupted, will also experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through the end of June, with a small group of households expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) without emergency humanitarian assistance.

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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