As the lean season approaches, diminishing stocks and rising food costs widen consumption gaps

• The dry season continues in February throughout the country's agroecological zones. The poorest households have depleted food reserves and currently reliant on markets where prices remain high; they are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. In contrast, in areas where security is unstable, particularly in Haute-Kotto and Haut-Mbomou, households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes due to inadequate agricultural production and insecurity, which deprives households of their typical livelihoods. In relatively calm areas, most households still have sufficient food reserves, ensuring Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.
• Food prices remain high due to increasing demand from households nearing the lean season, as well as shortages and disruptions in fuel supply. Price increases are more pronounced in areas most affected by conflict. For instance, rice and cassava prices in Obo are 79 and 48 percent higher than last year's average and 43 and 29 percent higher than the five-year average, respectively.
• Conflicts and deaths associated with fighting have somewhat stabilized in 2023, however, the security situation remains precarious in certain areas (notably Ouham-Pendé, Haut-Mboumou, Vakaga, and Haute-Kotto), and cases of violence against civilians causing population displacement continue to be recorded. As of December 31, 2023, the IOM recorded 470,406 internally displaced persons (IDPs), among whom there are many newly displaced from flooding and activism by armed groups, as well as victims of conflicts related to transhumance. However, despite the continuous instability in certain areas, the return of IDPs to their places of origin continues, with over 237,900 returning over the course of 2023. 

In the southern, southeastern, central, and western parts of the country, agricultural households are currently engaged in agricultural work in the fields. The first significant rains, expected between March and April, will enable the planting of peanut, maize, and cassava crops. However, despite the lull observed in several areas and the return of some IDPs to their places of origin, ongoing soil preparation operations could be disrupted by the reduced movement and difficult access for populations to their fields. Similarly, limited market supplies will reduce household access to inputs. Planted areas this year are in general expected to surpass those of the last agricultural season due to the gradual restoration of peace in several areas. However, they are expected to remain below pre-crisis levels given that certain regions are still inaccessible due to insecurity, coupled with limited availability of high-quality agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers and improved seeds.

As the lean season approaches in the south, most agricultural households rely heavily on markets for their staple food supplies. However, market access is generally quite challenging due to extremely degraded roads, and markets are typically located far from villages. As the rains begin in April, the supply of cassava chips, the primary staple food, will be insufficient to meet household demand. The increased rainfall frequency reduces the drying capacity of the chips, limiting the supply. To cope with food access challenges, poor households will be compelled to adopt coping strategies such as foraging for wild foods and migrating to mining areas. On the other hand, the harvest of the first cycle of maize, expected as early as July, will help alleviate food access challenges during the lean season.

In conflict-affected areas like Haut-Mbomou and Haute-Kotto, some households can only gain access to their fields or to gathering, hunting, or fishing areas within a maximum distance of 10 kilometers from their villages, and sometimes even less, due to insecurity caused by the presence of armed groups. Poor households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity during the lean season between April and July. This lack of access to food and typical income sources forces them to sell livelihood-related assets or resort to crisis coping strategies, or worse, which could involve selling productive assets or means of transportation, or even consuming their seed reserves due to a lack of money to buy food.

Beginning in March, the return of transhumants from the south to the north will begin. The annual herd migration, typically marked by tensions between transhumant herders, armed groups, and sedentary populations (farmers), is expected to be somewhat calmer due to government measures aimed at promoting peaceful migration (awareness campaigns and organization of transhumance corridors).

In the northern regions of the country, the current dry season will continue through May, and natural resources will remain a significant income source for poor households. During this period, the production of shea butter from gathered products, the sale of wild fruits, and hunting will be the main activities. These activities will enable households to generate income to purchase food, especially as food stocks diminish with the onset of the lean season. However, insecurity linked to the presence of armed groups will continue to limit access to natural resources and markets, which will negatively affect the livelihoods of households in areas where rebel groups are prevalent.

Overall, between June and September, acute food security for most poor households in the north will be characterized by limited food consumption due to the depletion of food stocks, limited incomes that do not ensure adequate access to food, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes. Increasing numbers of populations will face large consumption deficits indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, or worse among internally displaced populations (IDPs), refugees, and flood victims.