Resurgence of armed conflicts worsens food insecurity for poor households at the start of the lean season

• As of December 31, 2021, the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Central African Republic (CAR) was estimated at 691,791 — a 3.3 percent increase from November (Commission on Population Movement (CMP), December 2021). The presence and involvement of various armed forces continues to severely disrupt the economic activities and livelihoods of rural populations in the most affected conflict areas.

• Market supplies of staple foods are average in areas less affected by conflict, and below average in hard-to-reach areas and areas under rebel occupation. Prices of local products are slightly up compared to the same period last year, while prices of imported products remain high mainly due to high transportation costs and road obstructions along the country's supply corridor.

• In areas not affected by conflict, a large proportion of households will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until September 2022. Meanwhile, IDPs and poor host households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September 2022. These include the more vulnerable poor and very poor households in the conflict zones of the southeastern prefectures and displaced households in the northwestern, northeastern, and central prefectures facing early stock depletion and low income.

The security situation in the country remains disorganized and highly volatile. Tensions, reprisals, and/or clashes between armed groups and the Central African Armed Forces (FACA)/bilateral forces have intensified, and explosives strewn on roads and fields are causing dozens of casualties, particularly in the northwestern and south-central regions. In addition to this, over the last three months, the sub-prefectures of Bocaranga, Ndjoukou, Bouar, Ngaoundaye, Kabo, Batangafo, Bossangoa, Bambari, Kouango, Bouca, Ippy, and Paoua were hit by bushfires and fires in fields and town centers. The latest and most significant incident was the burning of the Catholic church in an IDP and refugee camp in Alindao on January 11, 2022 (Journal de Bangui, January 12, 2022). Security, food access, land for cultivation, implementation of livelihood activities, and humanitarian access are still highly limited in the conflict-affected areas.

Market supply is also disrupted in the conflict zones, most notably in the sub-prefectures of Bambari, Bocaranga, Ngaoundaye, Ouanda Djallé, Ouaka, Ouham, and Ouham-Pendé, where new displacements of people have occurred since December 2021.

Population movement: According to the CMP report of December 31, 2021, the estimated number of IDPs in CAR totaled 691,791 individuals across 172,126 sites, of which 519,665 were housed in sites and 519,665 were with host families. This is a 3.3 percent increase from November 2021, when the total number of IDPs was estimated at 669,791 (Figure 1). This increase is due to the continued rise in localized hotbeds of tension and/or clashes, and incidents and conflicts between FACA and armed groups since November 2021. As at December 2021, CMP partners reported 28,476 new IDPs. The sub-prefectures with the most significant new movements include Ngaoundaye (15,970 IDPs), Bambari (3,529 IDPs), Bocaranga (3,500 IDPs) and Ippy (2,000 IDPs). These new IDPs were displaced because of attacks on armed groups by FACA and bilateral forces in several localities, and in some cases, because of the fear of reprisal attacks or retaliation. In addition, there were relatively large-scale preventive displacements in the commune of Cochio-Toulou in the sub-prefecture of Kouango, due to previous violent clashes between FACA and armed groups. Given these various constraints, the poor and the very poor in these areas face difficulties accessing food and land for cultivation, and implementing livelihood activities.

Access and food availability: During this dry season, the first harvests of 2022 (cassava, maize, groundnuts) are under way in areas less affected by insecurity and armed conflict, in the central and western prefectures. Food availability is increasing among poor and very poor households and is further boosted by wild food products, fishing and hunting, enabling these households to earn a stable daily wage from agricultural and other labor and fulfill their own food needs.

In the northern prefectures and in some localities in the northwestern and southeastern prefectures, access to fields for crops and harvests has been limited, and the occurrence of bushfires and recurrence of fires, while sporadic, is ongoing due to the presence of armed groups. Food availability and access are greatly reduced or severely limited due to permanent insecurity. Poor and very poor households tend to resort to gathering, fishing, and hunting to meet their needs.

Markets and price trends: In most markets across the country, food and agricultural prices were higher in January 2022 than compared to the previous month and compared to the same time last year (Figure 2). The increase in the price of local products is due to reduced market supply as stocks have gradually decreased during the end of the harvest into the beginning of the dry season, when cassava harvesting is difficult and when retail and wholesale bean stocks are low.

According to field monitors and the results of the January 2022 REACH Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) survey of more than 500 traders in 13 markets, many markets are seeing an increase in the cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) (Figure 3). The median cost of the SMEB is 62,697 XAF — a 5 percent increase from December 2021. A 6 percent increase in price was reported on the staple food basket, particularly in the markets of Bocaranga, Paoua, and N’Délé. Obo City remains the most expensive market assessed since July 2021, with a SMEB amounting to 112,471 XAF in January, well above the national median.

Cameroon's decision to suspend exports of vegetable oil and cereal products in December 2021, in order to better regulate price increases in local markets, could further contribute to the rise in prices of essential items and affect market supply in CAR. Thus, the cost of food in the January SMEB will likely continue to rise in the coming months, particularly in the country's border areas with Cameroon.

The supply of food and non-food items to markets is average in areas less affected by armed conflict. However, supply is significantly lower in hard-to-reach areas under rebel occupation (due to the closure of the country's border with Chad), given the insecurity and/or fear of abuse, particularly on supply roads from Cameroon, along with high road and customs taxes.

Nutrition situation: Malnutrition remains a major concern throughout CAR. The results of the IPC acute malnutrition (IPC AMN) analysis conducted in September 2021 in 68 sub-prefectures and Bangui predict that between March and August 2022, six sub-prefectures are likely to move from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 21 sub-prefectures will move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis, while 25 sub-prefectures and Bangui will remain in Crisis. This situation indicates a deterioration in the nutritional status of more than 98,000 pregnant and lactating women and nearly 214,000 children under five who are likely to be acutely malnourished, of whom nearly 67,000 will be severely malnourished and in need of urgent care.

Current food security outcomes: Food access and availability for households in areas affected by conflict (including bushfires, fires, tensions, armed conflict, fear of abuse, and continued population displacement) remain limited, as do income-generating activities (mainly in the informal and tertiary sectors). This has led to a persistent decline in the purchasing power of the poor and a significant deterioration in their livelihoods. A large proportion of poor and very poor households rely on fishing, hunting, and gathering to meet their minimum food needs (dried caterpillars, dried mushrooms, gnetum, and wild yams). A large proportion of the population, particularly poor host households and IDPs in the northern, northwestern, and southeastern prefectures, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in 2022, primarily due to early depletion of stocks, low income levels, deteriorating security, and increased armed violence in these areas of the country.

Nationally, supply of foods products in markets and availability of agricultural laborers and laborers will be average in less conflict-affected areas and enable the majority of households to fulfill their food needs through September. Thus, central and western prefectures are expected to be see Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes.

Currently, at the start of the dry season and the lean season in the northern prefectures, below-average harvests and low incomes (given market limitations) are causing poor host and returnee households to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

In the northwestern prefectures, households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) could fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season due to early stock depletion and low income levels. This situation should end in September, with the end of the lean season and in the midst of the rainy season, when the first crops of the 2022/2023 growing season become available.

In the southeastern prefectures under occupation by armed groups, which is severely disrupting agricultural activity, IDPs and poor host households are, and will continue to be, more dependent on the market and humanitarian assistance. They will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for the lean season, through September.

The nutritional situation will deteriorate from April/May during the lean season in the areas that are most affected by insecurity. This is also the case where fulfilling food needs remains a concern for poor and very poor populations due to low market supplies, rising prices, limited movement, and the continued movement of populations. These poor households will have weak income sources and heavily depend on the market as their main food source.