Famine Early Warning Systems Network

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), security incidents and related deaths increased between December and January, with a monthly average of 49 incidents and 110 deaths, compared to 17 incidents and 27 deaths reported from January to November 2020.  Since December, defense and security forces have been leading attacks against rebel groups blocking the capital's key supply routes in Bangui-Douala for imports from Cameroon; Bangui-Bambari-Bangassou; Bambari-Ngakobo, where a sugar production plant is located; and Berberati-Kenzo, the main supply route for the southwestern regions, from Cameroon. The conflict has increased the number of IDPs by nine percent in December, compared to October, and the continued insecurity has resulted in more significant increases in IDPs in the Mbomou, Nana-Mamberé, and Bamingui-Bangoran prefectures.

In addition to displacement, the conflict is characterized by the looting of property (livestock and agricultural products) and trade. Rebel groups have also imposed illegal taxes on traders and producers who attend local markets. This has reduced market access and limited supply and demand. 

Before this new crisis, flooding in the north (Bamingui-Bangoran) and attacks by armed groups in the west (Ouham-Pendé, Nana-Mambéré) and southeast (Mbomou, Haut-Mbomou, Basse-Kotto) were negatively affecting the livelihoods. This crisis occurred at a time when the flow of imported goods was resuming to normal levels after a few months of disruption due to restrictive COVID-19 measures and health controls at the borders. Particularly, in urban centers, increased prices of imported products decreased household purchasing power.

The blockage of key trade routes, persisting nationwide curfew, poor road conditions, and volatile food prices in most markets limit the market supply of both local and imported products. In February, imported rice prices increased by 34 percent compared to the previous month. Given, rice prices were already high due to COVID-19 restrictions; rice remains 63 percent above last year’s levels. In certain urban markets such as Bangui, Berberati, and Kaga-Bandoro, rice prices doubled. The shortage of imported food products has increased the demand for local products. However, limited inter-urban transport also affects trade between production areas and urban areas resulting in volatile price increases for these products, particularly in urban centers.

Conversely, in production areas, which are inaccessible to buyers, prices have overall decreased by 11 percent for cassava and maize, while sorghum prices remained stable compared to last year. However, compared to last month, maize and cassava prices are rising globally 54 and 30 percent respectively, but have fallen by 13 percent for sorghum. Due to a resurgence in incidents and the illegal tolls imposed by rebel groups on roads, producers are participating less in the market, which has limited supply.

The nationwide curfew has also restricted population movements and reduced market access resulting in decreased income primarily from the sale of agricultural goods, hunting and gathering, agricultural labor, and daily labor. In the capital, the suspension of motorcycle taxi activities has reduced daily earnings and is amplifying acts of banditry and theft. Continued conflict will hamper agricultural activities, including soil preparation, which typically occurs between February and June. This is also likely to limit the demand for labor during this period. Furthermore, the producers' limited access to their fields could exacerbate crop damage by migratory livestock coming from Chad and Sudan. The areas located along the corridor passages are of most concern, particularly prefectures in the north, northeast, west, and southwest.

According to OCHA, in December, the total number of IDPs was estimated at 682,000. Presently, the strong presence of IDPs, low market supply levels, the rise in food prices, and declining income are decreasing household food access. These factors are aggravating existing challenges seen prior to the recent uptick in conflict, particularly the destruction of flooding (Bamingui-Bangoran, Ouaka, Ombella M’Poko, and Bangui prefectures), inter-communal conflict (Vakaga), and limited access to humanitarian assistance (east and southeast prefectures). Particularly, households impacted by flooding, IDPs, and poor host populations in these areas have also reduced the quantity and quality of their meals or reduced the number of meals consumed.

Continued supply to markets in the capital has been possible due to the movement of produce in escorted convoys for carriers along the Bangui-Douala route. However, it is possible that isolated blockades of other supply routes may be lifted as rebel groups disperse in several prefectures. Additionally, between June and September, structural disruptions in supply linked to the deterioration of the road network during the rainy season will keep supply on markets low and prices high due to increased household demand for market supplies with the depletion of their stocks. This will increase the number of populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse during this period. Flood victims, IDPs, and poor host populations will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and September.