Insufficient production in conflict zones driving acute food insecurity during post-harvest period

• In December, cassava harvesting is ongoing, while millet, sorghum, coffee, and rice harvesting is nearing completion. However, the production level remains significantly below average in conflict zones, particularly in the northeast and southeast regions of the country. Poor households, whose livelihoods have been significantly impacted by multiple years of armed conflicts, with the majority being internally displaced persons (IDPs), are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes and, in some cases, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In safer regions of the country, where households can securely access their fields, agricultural production enables them to meet their food and non-food needs with own-produced crops and face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
• On the markets, the prices of essential food items remain high (Figure 1 and Figure 2), even though some prices have stabilized or declined compared to the same period last year. Shortages and disruptions in fuel supplies are likely contributing to the ongoing rise in food prices and transportation costs. Based on WFP price data, prices for staple commodities such as maize, cassava, and rice rose in October across nearly all surveyed markets, surpassing the five-year average. The most notable increases were recorded in conflict zones. However, compared to the same period last year (2022), there is a general trend of declining prices for basic agricultural products (cassava, maize, rice) in non-conflict zones. 
• According to OCHA, as of October 31, 2023, the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Central African Republic (CAR) was estimated at 504,992 people. In August 2023, this number was 488,866 people, representing a 3.2 percent increase in the number of IDPs compared to the previous month. This overall increase could be explained by the floods in September and October, which caused numerous casualties and led to additional population displacements. However, improvements in the security situation in several areas of the country, enabling some displaced individuals to return to their original communities, has mitigated the overall trend of increasing IDPs. In October 2023, the largest influx of IDP returnees was observed in Haute-Kotto. However, the security situation remains precarious there, as well as in Haut-Mboumou, Vakaga, and Ouham, where ongoing clashes between rebel groups and government forces continue to cause numerous civilian casualties. 

During the period from January to February 2024, poor households primarily dependent on their own production (cassava, rice, millet, and sorghum), and, depending on their livelihood zones, other sources of income such as foraging, hunting, fishing, and artisanal activities, will likely experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. Many households living in insecure areas with little to no agricultural production, as well as those in large cities relying on the market in a context of high living costs, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. On the other hand, populations affected by floods and armed conflicts will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In the most insecure areas, such as the sub-prefectures of Haut-Mbomou and Haute-Kotto, households can only access their fields, foraging, hunting, or fishing areas within a 10 km or smaller radius of their villages because of insecurity related to the presence of armed groups.

The period from February to May corresponds with the beginning of agricultural activities related to land preparation and planting of maize, peanuts, beans, millet, and sorghum in certain areas, and the depletion of food stocks of poor households. These households will find themselves increasingly dependent on market purchases for their food needs. Additionally, some may also have access to wild foods such as mushrooms, as well as hunting and fishing. However, the poorest, whose livelihood assets have been severely undermined by several years of conflict, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In addition, persistent insecurity linked to the presence of armed groups in certain areas will continue to limit access to typical food and income sources for the poorest households in these areas, especially IDPs. These households will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, and will be forced to sell productive assets or means of transportation, or consume their seed stocks due to a lack of money to buy food.

From March onwards, herders will begin their journeys back from the southern to the northern regions of the country. Over the past several years, transhumance in CAR has been marked by tensions between transhumant herders, armed groups, and the sedentary population (farmers). These tensions sometimes result in internal displacements, property damage, and even fatalities. A recent conflict at the end of November in the Vakaga Prefecture, in the northeast of the country, resulted in two deaths.  

From March/April, land preparation activities will begin in the southern and central regions. The upcoming rainy season there (regions with rainfall exceeding 1,300 mm) will facilitate the planting of maize, cassava, peanuts, and sweet potatoes. During this period of intensive agricultural activities, there are employment opportunities for the poorest households, allowing them to earn monetary income in return. It coincides with the lean season, marked by the seasonal migration of able workers to major cities.