Continuing security tensions accelerate displacements and heighten food insecurity

• According to the Food Security Cluster’s November 2015 Early Warning Bulletin, in spite of favorable rainfall conditions for crop production, production shortfalls are expected due to reduced farming activities following security issues in crop-producing areas. These shortfalls, in turn, are expected to prematurely deplete household food stocks, heighten market dependence, and restrict food access. The worst affected groups will be IDPs and households who had to abandon their fields.

• The ongoing security tensions are reflected in attacks targeting civilians and continuing displacements reported in northwestern, southwestern, and central prefectures in the country. The general elections scheduled for the end of December 2015 could trigger new security tensions and population displacements. The ongoing conflict is weakening food access, particularly for IDPs, returnees, poor resident households, and host families in northwestern, southwestern, and central areas of the country, who will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through at least March 2016.

• According to recent rapid (RRM) assessment findings, prices in December in the areas surveyed of the Sangha Mbaéré prefecture more than doubled following sharp contractions in supplies as a result of insecurity and the flooding in November 2015, which destroyed crops and disrupted trade. Prices in these areas could skyrocket with escalating tensions in the wake of elections scheduled for the end of this year, making it difficult for vulnerable households to maintain their food access.

IDP numbers are steadily increasing as the security situation continues to deteriorate with the approaching general elections. The referendum at the beginning of December 2015 initiated attacks and internal displacements. The size of the displaced population has grown from approximately 350,000 IDPs before the recent security flare-up to roughly 450,000 IDPs currently.

According to various household food security assessments, the insecurity problems are affecting the main income sources for poor households including crop sales, petty trade, hunting and fishing, casual labor, artisanal activities, and salaried employment. In fact, the crop production shortfalls as a result of the conflict has negatively affected crop sales, trade, and commerce, sharply reducing household income and purchasing power of food.

The security crisis’ impact on domestic markets is reflected in the limited availability of food crops and their higher prices. According to market data collected as a part of rapid assessments like PU-AMI’s November 2015 RRM in the village of Nola (in Sangha Mbaéré), supplies shortages from security issues and severe flooding in Sangha Mbaéré have driven up prices. Thus, a bowl of cassava, a dietary staple, which was selling for 1000 CFAF in November 2015 in Nola jumped to 2000 CFAF by December. Cassava prices on other markets in that area rose from 1500 CFAF to 2000 CFAF in Bayanga and from 1500 CFAF to 4000 CFAF in Bomandjoko between November and December.

In general, the rapid (RRM) assessments of resident households and those in IDP camps in Sangha Mbaéré, Bamingui-Bangoran, Nana-Gribizi, and Ouaka prefectures conducted throughout November and December 2015 reveal particularly troubling livelihood conditions for displaced populations in terms of food access and livelihoods. In fact, a large majority of households surveyed in the assessment areas had poor food consumption scores, with most adults and children lacking diversified diets and reducing their food intake to a single daily meal, while their food reserves covered less than a week’s worth of consumption. 

None of the displaced households surveyed had access to cropland. Thus, they depend mainly on wage income from day labor to buy food supplies on the market, but the large labor supply is lowering wage rates compared to normal price levels and to current food prices. Under such circumstances, the vast majority of IDPs are in an alarmingly precarious situation without a guaranteed income for the medium-term future and dependent on market prices for their main source of food.

Consequently, IDPs, returnees, and poor resident households dependent on crop production and agricultural day as their main source of income will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through March 2016 as a result of the ongoing conflict, which will only deteriorate with the potential new security tensions from the general elections.