Conflict and rising prices sustain acute food insecurity in the Central African Republic

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Insecurity remains the primary driver of food insecurity in 2025 in the Central African Republic (CAR). In October 2024, FEWS NET estimated that between 500,000 and 749,999 people would be in need of humanitarian food assistance between April and May 2025. These needs were expected to decline slightly between October 2024 and January 2025 due to the harvests, before rising again starting in April 2025 as stocks were depleted and the security situation continued to disrupt livelihoods. Most of the people in need were expected to be internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees located in areas facing severe security challenges and exposed to flooding, notably in the prefectures of Haut-Mbomou, Haute-Kotto, Ouham-Pendé, and Vakaga. FEWS NET estimated that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes would be observed due to persistent violence, recurrent attacks disrupting markets, and repeated population displacement. These shocks would likely lead to loss of life, destruction of livelihoods, and heavy reliance on humanitarian assistance.
The security situation in CAR remains deeply fragile, despite some progress in the stabilization process. The persistent presence of multiple armed groups and cross-border incursions continues to fuel widespread insecurity. Analysis of ACLED data over the past five years reveals high conflict volatility: after a peak in 2021 followed by a relative lull in 2022, violence gradually resumed, reaching a 43 percent increase in incidents between January and October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, particularly in Haut-Mbomou, Ouham-Pendé, and Vakaga. This trend reflects the mobility of armed groups, their capacity to adapt, and the absence of sustained control over conflict-affected areas. Although a ceasefire was signed in April 2025 between the government, the Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC), and Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation (3R), fighting continued. Clashes between the Central African Armed Forces (FACA), supported by Rwandan partner forces and Russian private military companies, and non-state armed groups illustrate the limits of de-escalation efforts.
The persistence of insecurity and conflict continues to drive large-scale population displacement, with IDPs concentrated in the prefectures of Vakaga, Haute-Kotto, Mbomou/Haut-Mbomou, and Ouham. As of September 30, 2025, UNHCR reported 445,536 IDPs in CAR, including 67,664 (15 percent) living in 78 sites and 374,656 (85 percent) hosted by families. This concentration of IDPs in already fragile areas, combined with insecurity and seasonal flooding, increases pressure on host communities. At the same time, needs remain substantial and a major funding shortfall has constrained humanitarian operations, with only 19 percent of the food security response funded as of November. This situation exacerbates household difficulties in accessing food, particularly for those dependent on markets or with reduced productive capacity. The affected prefectures face persistent acute food insecurity and heavy dependence on humanitarian assistance.
The 2025 agricultural season was marked by localized rainfall deficits, particularly in the north and southeast of the country, while other areas — especially the northwest — recorded heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Below-average rainfall across the country, with moderate to severe seasonal deficits, likely delayed planting and limited the development of staple crops. Average to above-average rainfall is expected to continue in the bimodal southern regions into early 2026. Poor rainfall distribution, combined with security constraints and low availability of inputs, is limiting households’ ability to rebuild stocks, reducing yields, and increasing food security risks, especially among poor households dependent on rainfed agriculture.
In November 2025, cassava, sweet potato, millet, and rice harvests are seasonally improving food availability and agricultural households’ seasonal incomes in several parts of the country. However, in conflict- and insecurity-affected areas, particularly in the southeast and northeast, production remains below average due to limited access to fields, repeated displacement, and labor shortages. Despite a slight seasonal improvement in food availability during the harvest period, a significant share of households — especially in hard-to-reach southern areas (Ouango, Kembé, Zémio, Obo) — continue to have inadequate food consumption. According to the Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) data collected in September, one-third of surveyed households resort to negative coping strategies such as reducing meals or consuming less preferred foods, driven by poor harvests and high food prices. Prices are partly explained by fuel shortages and low market connectivity.
Market supply in CAR is improving seasonally due to ongoing harvests, stock drawdowns, and a slight increase in river imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo. However, internal and external food flows remain heavily disrupted by insecurity, deteriorated roads, illegal checkpoints, fuel shortages, and insufficient transport capacity. Persistent constraints along the Douala corridor — worsened by Cameroon’s post-election crisis and “ghost town” days — combined with the near-total cessation of flows from Sudan and continued limited flows from Chad, are reducing food supply, particularly in hard-to-reach and high-risk areas such as Bayanga, Boda, Kembé, Ouango, Birao, Ndélé, Ouadda, Zémio, and Obo.
Prices for cassava (a key staple) and maize (a staple crop with commercial potential) are experiencing atypical increases during the harvest period, with strong local variation linked to the continuation of the rainy season, delayed market supply, and high transport costs to hard-to-reach areas (Birao, Ndélé, Ouadda, Zémio, Obo). According to WFP data, in September cassava and maize prices rose by 58 percent and by 50-67 percent, respectively, within one month in several localities in the center-west and northwest. The increase was driven by rains delaying market supply, institutional demand, and higher transport costs. Despite these atypical increases, prices remain below those of September 2024 — down 28 percent for cassava and 13 percent for maize — and below the five-year average. Nevertheless, rising prices reduce food access and push poor market-dependent households toward negative coping strategies such as reducing meal size and quantity, increasing the risk of deterioration in food consumption and nutritional status.
Between November and January, end-of-year harvests will improve food availability and consumption, but improvements will remain limited in areas affected by insecurity, displacement, and irregular rainfall, where production remains below average. In hard-to-reach prefectures or areas under the control of armed groups, food consumption deficits will be observed among poor households due to insufficient food supply, high prices, and limited market access. From February onward, the gradual depletion of stocks, the seasonal rise in cassava and maize prices, disruptions to trade flows, and increased pressure on host communities are expected to worsen food access, especially for poor households. The recent EFSA findings, showing that one-third of households are already adopting negative coping strategies despite the harvest, highlight a very limited capacity to cope with future shocks. A deterioration in food consumption is expected between February and May 2026 with the start of the lean season.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Central African Republic Key Message Update November 2025: Conflict and rising prices sustain acute food insecurity in the Central African Republic, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.