Food security remains dynamic due to volatile security situation

Armed groups attacked and set two IDP sites on fire in Alindao (Basse Kotto) and Batangafo (Ouham) in late October and early November, affecting an estimated 45,000 people. The security situation remains volatile. According to ACLED conflict data, total cumulative fatalities are lower in 2018 compared to 2017, but the level of violence against civilians is 12 percent higher. In addition to attacks on civilians, clashes between armed groups and roadblocks erected by armed groups to control the roads continue to cause displacement, impede humanitarian access, and restrict supplies and access to markets.

Ouham, Ouaka, and Nana Gribizi prefectures are most affected by security incidents. IDPs sheltering in settlements in these prefectures are dependent on humanitarian food assistance. In Batangafo, 27,435 IDPs (63 percent of the settlement population) received 20-day rations in early November. In October, food distributions and cash transfers benefited 53,590 IDPS in Nana-Mambéré prefecture (100 percent), 8,570 IDPs in Mambéré Kadeï (59 percent), and 1,759 Sangha-Mbaéré (61 percent). This food assistance enabled Stressed! (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In other sites where food assistance is irregular and insufficient to change the phase, the majority of IDPs and host community households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

A relative but precarious calm exists in most other prefectures despite some breakdown in peace negotiations and changes in National Assembly leadership. This is serving to promote the return of IDPs and refugees to their areas of origin. According to UNHCR and IOM, the number of Central African refugees sheltering in neighboring countries decreased by more than 12 percent from June to October to 573,264. The number of IDP returnees in 2018 (172,206) exceeds the number of those newly displaced in 2018 (115,422). In these areas where the security situation has improved, households are engaged in harvesting activities and are primarily consuming crops from own production, although total production is expected to remain below the pre-crisis average. These households are likely able to meet their minimum food needs and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).