Harvests estimated to be below the pre-crisis average

In the southwest, households are consuming and selling second season stocks, which began to be harvested in December. However, armed group activity continues to restrict sales of cash crops. Cereal (sorghum, corn, rice) and cotton production is estimated to be below the pre-crisis average, and an early onset of the lean season is expected in March in the north and in April in the south. Most returnees were unable to plant in time to harvest second season crops, or lacked adequate agricultural inputs to plant sufficient amounts. Most households in these relatively calm parts of the country will supplement own production with wild foods and market purchases, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to be sustained.

According to IOM (DTM Dashboard 6), the average number of new internally displaced persons (IDPs) increased to 10,559 per month from October to December 2018, compared to 6,234 per month from August to September 2018. However, this still represents an improvement compared to the first half of 2018, which averaged 14,380 new IDPs per month. At the same time, the average number of returnees within CAR and from neighboring countries has remained relatively stable since August at about 11,420 per month. Hot spots of conflict between armed groups in early January are in the localities of Bakouma (Mbomou), Bria (Haute-Kotto), and Bamabari (Ouaka), where violence continues to cause atypical population movements.

IDPs continue to depend on humanitarian food assistance and market food purchases. Prices of imported products (rice and palm oil) are volatile from month to month due to closures or temporary breaks in supply routes. In Bambari, staple food prices, except for cassava, more than doubled in December compared to December 2017. In Bangassou, price increases were also observed for cassava (+50%), rice (+25%), and palm oil (+40%), partly due to the additional demand of returnees. In December, 20-day food rations were provided to 34,850 people in Basse-Kotto (covering 41% of IPs and returnees) and to 42,500 people in Ouham (covering 75% of IDPs and returnees), enabling Stressed! (Phase 2!) outcomes in these sites. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes persist in other IDP and returnee sites.