Persistent insecurity and conflict continue to limit food access despite ongoing harvests

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Between December and January, end-of-year harvests provide seasonal improvements in food availability in the Central African Republic (CAR). For the 2025 season, preliminary FAO estimates indicate production could reach approximately 200,000 tons, representing a partial improvement compared to last year. Maize production — the country’s main staple cereal — benefited from adequate rainfall, allowing generally satisfactory crop growth in accessible areas. However, area planted and maize yields remain weak due to insecurity and restricted access to land, tools, seeds, and other inputs. Insufficient production will sustain a strong dependence on imports and yield only limited replenishment of food stocks among farming households, which will not meet the country’s food needs.
Although harvests seasonally improve food availability, access will remain highly uneven across regions. Prefectures affected by persistent insecurity, displacement, and recent weather shocks remain the most at risk. Localized flooding has caused crop losses, damaged infrastructure, and disrupted market supplies, limiting agricultural incomes. In remote areas or those under the control of armed groups, access to markets remains restricted, leading to high prices and consumption deficits among poor households. The post-harvest period coincides with the December elections, which may heighten tensions and further disrupt trade flows. From February onward, the gradual depletion of food stocks, the seasonal increase in cassava and maize prices, and continued disruptions to trade flows are expected to further worsen food access. Between February and May 2026, during the lean season, a further deterioration in food consumption is anticipated, maintaining high humanitarian needs and strong market dependence, particularly among poor and displaced households or those living in hard-to-reach areas.
Despite average to below-average rainfall during most of the agricultural season — marked by deficits in the west and southwest — bimodal zones are expected to continue receiving average to above-average rainfall until March during the dry season. Although rainfall has been below average in some regions, rains have been sufficient to maintain generally average and broadly satisfactory soil moisture, with drier pockets in the southeast that could lead to water stress at the start of the dry season. Localized rainfall and soil moisture deficits, together with the gradual onset of the dry season, could limit off-season production opportunities in the south and increase pressure on water resources.
Population displacement continues to influence food security and the humanitarian situation in CAR despite a relative improvement in 2025. According to IOM, approximately 416,247 internally displaced persons (IDPs) were recorded at the end of November, a decrease of 2 percent since January, although localized increases persist in Vakaga, Lim-Pendé, Ouham-Pendé, and Nana-Mambéré due to community clashes, transhumance-related tensions, and flooding. The majority of IDPs in the country (87 percent) live within host communities, placing additional pressure on households already facing economic constraints and limited access to essential services. At the same time, more than 39,279 internal returns and 23,412 returns from abroad were recorded in 2025, driven by a slight security improvement in some areas of origin and deteriorating conditions in areas of displacement. However, the fragility of areas of origin and limited access to services constrain the sustainability of these returns and maintain a high risk of food insecurity.
Market conditions in CAR have improved with a seasonal increase in supply from new harvests. These harvests led to price declines for several local food items between October and November 2025, according to mVAM data, and a 26 percent decrease in the national median cost of the Minimum Survival Basket (MSB) in October compared to August, according to the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI). This trend reflects increased availability of agricultural products (maize, cassava, beans, groundnuts), although it remains fragile and highly dependent on structural constraints. Market functionality remains limited, with marked disparities between Bangui and interior markets such as Nangha-Boguila and Ouadda, where access and affordability remain low. In addition, prices remain above the five-year average — particularly for rice and widely consumed goods — amid persistently high transport costs, deteriorating road conditions, illegal taxation, and insecurity. From February-March through May, food prices are expected to rise seasonally, reducing poor households’ ability to meet their minimum food needs.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Central African Republic Key Message Update December 2025: Persistent insecurity and conflict continue to limit food access despite ongoing harvests, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.