Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• As a result of armed groups attacking regular army positions in the north-central, northwestern, and northern prefectures, the security situation remained precarious. In November, the incidents rose by 44 percent over the previous three months, reaching a similar level as at the beginning of the year (ACLED). In addition to looting and levying road taxes, armed groups have set fire to trucks carrying goods and property and attacked civilians. As a result of the security incidents, local markets experience a decrease in supply and utilization, creating new displacements of populations. 

• Factors contributing to higher food prices for consumers, urban households, IDPs, and poor households that rely on markets for food due to limited access to fields include disruptions in the market supply chain, illegal taxes levied by armed groups, and high transportation costs associated with fuel price increases of approximately 50 percent compared to normal. In Bangui, cassava, oil, and sugar prices are 20, 40, and 13 percent above the five-year average, respectively. According to key informants, these increases are likely to be passed on to the eastern and northern prefectures, which are difficult to access due to insecurity, poor roads, and long distances from supply centers.

• With limited access to usual sources of food and income (agricultural production, fishing, hunting and gathering, and day labor), the number and quantity of meals per day are reduced for groups, including IDPs, households affected by flooding between July and September (in the Vakaga and Bamingui-Bangoran prefectures), and poor host households in areas under the control of armed groups (Haut-Mbomou, Ouaka, Ouham, Vakaga, and Haut-Kotto). According to Food Security Cluster data, in the Haut-Mbomou and Nana-Gribizi prefectures, food assistance reached approximately 22 and 29 percent of the population, respectively. This assistance aims to meet 75 percent of caloric needs, helping to reduce the adoption of crisis strategies for food consumption in these prefectures. In other prefectures affected by flooding, or where household access to food or income sources is limited, to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, the distribution of food assistance will need to be increased. 

• Households in the relatively calm central, central-western, and northwestern prefectures of the country depend primarily on agriculture for food. Poor households also have greater access to fishing, hunting, and gathering. However, the income generated from these sources still needs to be increased to rebuild livelihoods. Production is still below the pre-conflict average due to producers' limited access to agricultural inputs. In addition, producer prices are low because buyers have to bear high transportation costs and are no longer willing to offer better prices. As a result, livelihoods remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in these areas.