Cereal prices atypically high in the Far North

• The premature depletion of food stocks is forcing households to turn to markets for food earlier than usual. However, the atypical price increases of staple foods (50 percent increase for sorghum compared with its average, despite the export ban on cereals) will significantly worsen their access to food.

• The prices of livestock – which is the second largest source of income for households – have continued to fall since last month. The terms of trade are now putting pastoralists at a disadvantage, with higher household sales. At the Moulvoudaye, Yagoua and Mokolo markets, individuals must now sell two small ruminants in return for 100 kilograms of sorghum.

• Ongoing food assistance remains low and planned food assistance is not fully funded. As a result, the difficulties that poor displaced and host households face in meeting their market needs will lead to a deterioration in their consumption and livelihoods. This will make them vulnerable to Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity in the lean season, which lasts from May to September.

Although there has been a decrease in incursions and suicide attacks by Boko Haram in recent months, the security situation remains precarious in the Far North region. The increased presence of the army and security forces is encouraging some displaced persons to return to their places of origin and is also helping economic activities to resume in the more secure urban centers. 

Market supplies of staple foods are satisfactory. Since last February, the opening of certain corridors has encouraged cereals from Nigeria (particularly maize from Bouhra) and Chad to enter Cameroon through the “duck beak” area (Gobo, Guere). Legumes (particularly cowpeas) are being exported to Nigeria, which has caused prices to increase by 24 percent compared with the five-year average. Moreover, local authorities have taken measures to ban cereal exports.

However, due to the depletion of stocks, there is an ever-growing household demand – especially among the poor – in the markets. In March, there was an atypical rise in cereal prices compared with the five-year average for the same period: 50 percent for rainfed sorghum, 48 percent for dry season sorghum and 21 percent for maize. Price increases above 50 percent for sorghum were observed in markets in Maroua, Yagoua and Mora. Contrastingly, in the markets in areas receiving food assistance (Koussiri in Logone-et-Chari and Mokolo in Mayo-Tsanaga), price increases are moderate, at no more than 30 percent.

In addition to agricultural production, host households and displaced persons earn an income mainly from livestock sales, agricultural labor, timber sales and small-scale trade. Despite the decline in onion production, its price is 51 percent lower than average. Livestock prices are also below average, as in the main markets (Maroua, Moulvoudaye, Yagoua and Mokolo) supply is higher than demand.

As a result, farmers must sell more than one ram or at least two goats at livestock markets in the region in order to buy one bag of cereals. The exception to this is the Maroua assembly market, where the prices of small ruminants (XAF 35,000 for a 3-year-old ram and XAF 30,000 for a 1-year-old goat) allow households to purchase at least one 100 kilogram bag of cereals. Compared with this time last year, the terms of trade for livestock and cereals have deteriorated by an average of 24 percent due to the high price of cereals.

Until the lean season ends in September, displaced and poor host households (roughly 30 percent of the population) will heavily rely on markets for their food. The projected prices for sorghum at the Maroua market could remain between 60 and 75 percent above the seasonal average from May to September. Food distributions mainly take place in the Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Sava departments, where around 67,800 displaced persons and refugees and 3,000 displaced households benefit respectively. 

Given the depletion of stocks, the high prices of staple foods, the drop in incomes and the low coverage of assistance, poor households’ food consumption (which is currently under stress) will continue to deteriorate due to the reduction in the quantity, quality and number of meals. Poor households will then be forced to increase their agricultural labor and livestock and timber sales, as well as their dependence on credit, all of which will negatively affect their livelihoods that are already under stress due to this insecurity. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level acute food insecurity could then affect poor households (displaced and host), as the planned assistance is not yet fully funded and remains insufficient.

From late September, the new crops harvested will help to improve the consumption of poor households, which are predominantly agricultural. However, livelihoods will still be strained.