Key Message Update

Flooding worsens food insecurity for persons affected by insurgency in the Far North

November 2022

November 2022 - January 2023

February - May 2023

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In the Northwest and Southwest region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely become more widespread between February to May 2023 scenario period.  Low household grain stock from consecutive seasons of low production is expected to continue driving increased reliance on market purchases and food assistance. Atypically low incomes and anticipated increases in already high staple food prices will further limit poor households’ access to food, driving their engagements in severe negative coping, including debt accrual from buying food on credit and asset sales to stretch their purchasing power for basic foods.

  • Flooding in the Far North region has displaced many and caused substantial damage to cropland, livestock, water resources, and road and sanitation infrastructure, impeding humanitarian operations in some affected areas.  As reported by WFP, the floods affected more than 250,000 persons in Logone et Chari, Mayo Danay and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions between September and October 2022 and destroyed about 27,400 hectares of cropland. Persons affected by Islamic insurgency are among the most affected, with more than 90,000 people affected in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions.

  • Food access has improved overall for many households across the Far North, with the availability of main harvests in October and November. However, many households in the Logone et Chari, Mayo Danay, and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions still face food consumption deficits due to the compounding effect of widespread insecurity, low production, flooding, and atypically high staple food prices. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes are likely to persist for Mayo-Sava, Logone-et-Chari, and Mayo- Tsanaga, with an increasing number of persons expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase3) or worst outcomes amongst displaced households and those recently affected by floods.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics