Food assistance needs expected to peak during ongoing lean season

• The impacts of conflict and insecurity, exacerbated by elevated food prices and localized seasonal flooding, on household food availability and access are expected to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the Far North, Northwest and Southwest, Adamawa, and East regions through September. Staple food prices plateaued between April and May but remain historically high, limiting household purchasing power and access to food at a time of year when household reliance on the market peaks. According to FEWS NET price data for May, staple grain and bean prices are trending 8-21 percent higher than this time last year and 25-100 percent higher than the five-year average. Notably, staple food prices in Yaoundé and Douala, particularly for imported rice, are likely to remain higher than in peri-urban and rural reference markets due to urban households’ reliance on and demand for purchased food.

• The population experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in parts of the Far North region – specifically in Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga divisions – is expected to peak during the lean season between June and August. Sporadic clashes between the military and Islamic groups, violence against civilians, looting, and abductions continue to disrupt livelihood activities, trade flows, and market functioning. Nearly 3,000 households were displaced following clashes in Mayo Moskota and Mayo Tsanaga in April 2023, according to the latest data from IOM. Many households in these divisions have already been subjected to multiple displacements from insecurity and seasonal flooding, largely eroding their coping capacities. These households are expected to face moderate to severe food consumption gaps until the dry harvesting of sorghum, maize, and pulses begins in September.

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread in the Northwest and Southwest regions until at least July, with food assistance needs likely to be highest at the peak of the lean season in May/June. Consecutive years of below-average production, driven by conflict and insecurity, have contributed to atypically high staple food prices. Maize prices are 23 percent higher than last year and have almost doubled over the last three years in Ndop, Bamenda, Nkambe, Wum, and Buea. Intensifying separatist attacks in May compounded existing market supply challenges and caused additional civilian displacements, casualties, and abductions. However, the dry harvesting of maize, beans, and pulses in July is anticipated to support a transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in some areas where levels of conflict have been less severe, allowing for more crop cultivation.

• In the Mbere division of the Adamawa region and Kadey and Lom et Djerem divisions of the bimodal East regions where most refugees from the Central African Republic are concentrated, poor refugee and host community households continue to earn low incomes relative to high staple food prices, linked to the increase in labor supply and competition over jobs and natural resources. Given increased market reliance at the peak of the lean season (May/June) and suppressed purchasing power,  Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist at the area-level and some very poor households are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Household food supplies are expected to generally improve as dry harvesting of maize, roots, and tubers begins in July, reducing the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, given anticipated below-average production and incomes for refugees and poor host community households, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely persist.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Cameroon Key Message Update, May 2023. Food assistance needs expected to peak during ongoing lean season, 2023.