Key Message Update

Green harvests expected to start across most of the country in June

May 2021

May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Households in the Northwest and Southwest regions will start consuming green harvests of staple foods like beans, potatoes and corn in June. However, they will remain primarily market dependent and face some food consumption gaps. They will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the harvests in July. Despite anticipated below average production, households will consume their own production and a seasonal drop in prices will improve purchasing power. Food insecurity will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for most of the North West and South West regions until September, with the exception of the departments worst affected by insecurity such as Menchum, Momo and Lebialem where production and humanitarian access remain very low.

  • Current trends in COVID-19 cases averaging 2,600 new cases per day, and the possibility of new variants, are leading the government to maintain preventive measures such as social distancing and restriction to gatherings and movements. Economic activities continue to operate at below average levels, which has a negative impact on daily incomes and employment opportunities for poor urban households. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign is progressing across the country but does not appear to have a substantial impact on mitigating the COVID-19 epidemic in the short to medium term.

  • In the Far North, household food reserves are depleting according to typical seasonal trends. The seasonal rise in grain prices is near average levels, although increasing demand from Nigeria is increasing the prices of some staple foods above typical levels. The price of newly harvested dry season sorghum is between 30 and 40 percent above last year and 10 to 12 percent more than the five-year average, with atypical increases linked to increased smuggling into northeast Nigeria.

  • Poor households in the departments worst affected by insurgent activity including Logone and Chari, Mayo Tsanaga and Mayo Sava, are expected to continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the lean season from June to August, due to below average main and off-season production. In addition, the persistence of attacks, kidnappings and looting are expected to disrupt agricultural activities for the upcoming season in most of the affected villages.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics