Conflict, high food prices, and flooding will limit food access despite harvests

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In late 2024, FEWS NET projected widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2025 in the Northwest and Southwest regions and parts of the Far North region (Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari) due to conflict-related reductions in area planted and above-average food prices constraining household purchasing power. FEWS NET also projected pockets of households in the Southwest, Northwest, and Far North in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to repeated displacements and severely eroded coping capacities. Nine years of conflict between separatist and government forces in the Northwest and Southwest and over 10 years of Islamist militant violence in the Far North have displaced over 1 million people, disrupting food and income access. Seasonal floods in the north further undermine household food access. FEWS NET estimated 1.50-1.99 million people – mainly refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and returnees – would require food assistance between October 2024 and May 2025 amid significant humanitarian funding shortfalls.
Improvements in food availability, affordability, and access to incomes from agricultural labor opportunities and crop sales are expected to partially mitigate acute food insecurity in the Northwest and Southwest during the harvest period (July-September 2025). However, households are unlikely to meet their non-food needs due to reduced income from previous below-average harvests that were impacted by conflict. Limited household stocks are expected to run out by November (four to five months earlier than a typical pre-conflict year). Households will likely be market dependent for food by December, but high prices will constrain food access, resulting in rising assistance needs. In very insecure and remote areas of Donga-Mantung, Momo, Bui, Lebialem, and Menchum divisions, where conflict significantly limits farmland access, households with low or no harvests will likely face widening food consumption gaps through December and resort to coping strategies such as debt accumulation or begging to access food.
In the Far North, the peak of the lean season is ongoing, and households affected by conflict, particularly in Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava divisions, have exhausted their limited food stocks. Many households are heavily relying on markets for food purchases, while facing significantly constrained purchasing power. Households are expected to face widening food consumption gaps and rising malnutrition levels until green harvesting begins in August. Limited stocks from the September-November main season harvest will support marginal improvements in household food consumption.
Seasonally heavy rainfall and flooding are expected between July and November in the northern zone, and typically drive household displacements, crop and livestock damage, and humanitarian access challenges. When floodwaters recede (typically around November/December), most households can return home and begin to resume livelihood activities. However, households that are severely affected and/or unable to return are expected to face constrained access to food and income, compounding existing conflict impacts, and will need urgent humanitarian assistance. Households in areas that are more flood prone, notably Mayo-Danay and Diamaré divisions, are expected to face a higher risk of seasonal flooding.
In the Kadey and Lom-et-Djerem divisions of the East region and the Mbéré division of the Adamawa region (where most refugees from the Central African Republic are settled), poor refugee and host community households continue to face high food prices (driven by increased demand) amid reduced incomes (linked to the increase in labor supply and competition over limited jobs and natural resources). While improved food supplies and agricultural incomes from the ongoing main harvest are expected to somewhat improve household food access, assistance needs will likely remain high among refugee households through December due to agricultural and pastoral land access challenges. However, according to WFP, funding shortfalls have resulted in 50 percent cuts in refugee rations and the distribution of incomplete food baskets since the end of 2023.
In the Northwest and Southwest, conflict volatility and high levels of targeted killings and kidnappings for ransom continue to limit livelihood activities. In June, an uptick in fighting occurred in parts of the Northwest after separatists ambushed and killed military forces, leading to the closure of critical trade routes in Donga-Mantung, Ngoketunjia, and Bui divisions. In the Far North, attacks by suspected Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) militants in May and June resulted in 130 security incidents and several deaths and abductions. About 1,800 people were reportedly internally displaced by June attacks in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions. Across the country, expectations of a short-term escalation in political tensions during and after the October 2025 presidential election persist. An increase in tension could drive a short-term intensification of the conflicts in the Northwest, Southwest, and Far North.
Cultivation for the 2025 main season is underway in the unimodal northern rainfall area. According to CHIRPS data, the onset was delayed, resulting in moderate to severe deficits that delayed planting by up to four weeks. Some areas received moderate rainfall during the first half of July, which partially mitigated the effects of earlier rainfall deficits on crop and pasture conditions. However, erratic rainfall and precipitation deficits have persisted in localized areas of the Far North, raising concerns for reduced crop yield. NMME rainfall forecasts suggest below-average rainfall during the August-October second rainy season in the Central, South, and East bimodal rainfall areas, though rainfall is expected to be sufficient for cultivation.
While food inflation eased from 10.4 percent in January 2024 to 5.9 percent in January 2025, prices remain elevated and continue to further undermining households’ food access (especially for conflict-affected households). The high prices are attributable to several factors, including increased transportation costs due to rising fuel prices and reduced food supply from conflict-affected areas. In the southern unimodal and bimodal rainfall areas where the main harvest is underway, seasonal price stabilization or decreases are expected through December as increased food supplies ease market pressures, although prices will likely remain above average. Seasonal declines in prices are considered unlikely in conflict-affected areas where supplies remain severely restricted by below-average production and road blockades. In unimodal rainfall areas of northern Cameroon, food supplies are declining seasonally, and price increases are expected through the onset of the 2025 main harvests in September.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Cameroon Key Message Update July 2025: Conflict, high food prices, and flooding will limit food access despite harvests, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.