Peak needs are likely between March and May, coinciding with the lean season in the country’s southern zone

Household food availability has improved across the Far North region following overall average production in the just-concluded 2022 main season. However, prices of major staples such as sorghum and maize began to rise gradually to above-average levels in November, significantly earlier than in previous years. Atypical price increases are associated with sustained export pressure, especially towards Nigeria, in addition to below-average local supplies in areas where flooding has resulted in a further drop in harvests and disrupted the flow of goods from farm to market.

In insurgency-affected Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions of the Far North region, where production was relatively lower than the rest of the region, and to the five-year average, area-level outcomes remain indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) although deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely from February through May 2023 as poor households’ food stocks deplete early, and market dependence increases amidst projected above-average staple prices and low income.

However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist amongst households that have been worst affected by recent flooding in the Far North region, especially households suffering from protracted displacement in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga, who have been further displaced by flooding. Recent information from partners and routine monitoring shows that most households facing multiple displacements from flooding and insecurity heavily depend on humanitarian assistance, which is insufficient to meet basic food needs fully.

Current food consumption is poor for most poor households in the Northwest and Southwest regions, as many are running out of their harvests from the last season. Increasing market dependence amid above-average staple food prices and below-average incomes further limits household food access. With persistent conflict and consecutive seasons of low production, food consumption gaps and unsustainable coping are anticipated to persist, with more poor households likely to see their outcomes deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worst during the lean season from March to May 2023.