The main harvests should improve food security conditions although production outlooks remain unfavorable in the Northwest and Southwest

• Beginning in July, the dry harvest is likely to improve the food security conditions of poor households in the Northwest and Southwest. Despite expected below-average production, households will consume their own yields. A seasonal increase in crop sales will also improve incomes. Food insecurity is expected to lessen to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in departments most affected by conflict, where production and access to food assistance remain very limited. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will likely begin in October due to premature food stock depletion, which will in turn increase staple product prices.

• COVID-19 prevention measures will continue to restrict daily income opportunities for poor households in urban areas. Staple product prices will remain above average due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. COVID-19 vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country, but the impact of the pandemic is likely to persist in 2021 and 2022.

• In departments most affected by insurgent activities in the Far North,
  below-average livestock numbers are reducing livestock sales. In
  addition, below-average localized production in 2020/21 is keeping
  food staples at above-average prices. Households in Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari are borrowing more, limiting the size and frequency of meals, buying cheaper food replacements, and selling charcoal and firewood to meet their dietary needs. They will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity until August.

Current situation

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: Newly reported COVID-19 cases have declined by an average of 20 percent since the first week of May 2021. Vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country. As of June 2021, 97,245 vaccine doses have been administered and 18,769 people have been fully vaccinated, representing less than 0.1 percent of the total population.  Other measures to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, mask-wearing, restricted gatherings and movements, and mandatory screening at all entry points, remain in place. In urban centers, economic activities related to tourism – including hotels and restaurants and informal activities such as small-scale trading – continue to operate at below-average levels. On June 20, Cameroon reopened its border with Chad via the Ngueli bridge given the downward trend of positive COVID-19 cases in both countries.

Agricultural production: The decennial warnings provided by the National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) in March 2021 show that the start of the rains in mid-March promoted the timely launch of sowing activities during the main season in southern Cameroon. Meanwhile, seasonal rainfall accumulation allowed normal crop development. The main season’s production is expected to be average, in part because of an increase in input support from the government and partners aimed at mitigating COVID-19’s impact on production. Throughout this season, agricultural engagements were hindered partially due to reduced mobility and higher transport costs caused by COVID-19 as well as insecurity in the Northwest, the Southwest, and the Far North. The prices of agricultural inputs, such as improved seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides, remain 10 to 15 percent higher than they were before COVID-19. In most rural areas, chemical fertilizers are 10 to 12 more expensive than they were during the same period in 2019. Prices are even higher in areas affected by ongoing conflict and insecurity.

Livestock production: The ongoing rainy season is stimulating the growth of pastures and the replenishment of water sources, thus improving pastoral resources. Livestock migration from the south to the north continues. The current destinations are the Diamaré plain (Mindif, Moulvoudaye, Petté) and the Logone floodplains. COVID-19 and border closures caused by security issues are hindering transnational livestock migration from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) to Cameroon and vice versa as well as transit movements from Chad to the CAR via Cameroon.

Markets: In major markets, the supply of staple foods is low for the season. Key crops are expected to replenish them beginning in July. Increased transport costs and road blockages due to insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions continue to disrupt the internal flow of crops from production basins to urban markets. In the Far North, persistent insecurity has caused approximately 64 percent of staple food and livestock markets to see up to a 50 percent reduction in supply and in the number of traders compared to what is typical for this time of year. In the Northwest and Southwest, households’ market access to buy and sell remains below average due to frequent lockdowns and a reduced number of market days.

Throughout the country, household dependence on market purchases is high for the season. It is also increasing in the northern regions, where the lean season is underway. The price of imported rice has remained 30 percent above average after a spike in May 2020 due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. In the Northwest and Southwest, supply is below average due to last season’s below-average production, which resulted in more rapid stock depletion. As a result, most staple products continue to sell at prices above the pre-conflict period average. In the Far North, seasonal cereal prices are slightly to moderately higher than during the same period over the last three years. This is due to growing demand from northeast Nigeria and from the CAR as well as to an increase in informal flows despite border closures.

Cross-border trade: Insecurity and COVID-19 have led to official border closings. Despite this, informal cross-border trade flows continue, although at below-average levels. The smuggling of cereals and other staple foods through border towns in the Far North to Nigeria, where demand is high, is increasing. This has led to increased prices in Cameroon. Increased flows were also observed along the Doula-Bangui corridor following the reopening of the Cameroon-CAR border in early 2021. However, persistent insecurity and threats from rebel groups are keeping flows at a below-average level. Herd arrivals from Chad and Sudan have declined by 70 percent, maintaining a below-average flow of livestock to destination markets in Yaoundé, Douala, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the CAR.

Nutritional situation: Preliminary results from the latest Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART) – Standardized Expanded Nutrition Survey (SENS) nutritional survey conducted by the Cameroonian government, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and UNICEF from February 16 to March 14, 2021 showed that the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) among Central African child refugees (6 to 59 months) living both in and outside of camps in the East and Adamawa regions has been increasing since 2016. It is currently above the critical threshold of 10 percent. Meanwhile, the Far North has recorded a moderately high GAM prevalence (5.9 percent). The current nutritional situation in this region remains precarious. It is exacerbated by the ongoing lean season and a lack of hygiene/sanitation and access to drinking water during the current rainy season.  In the Northwest and Southwest, acute malnutrition among poor households continues due to the combined effects of declining production and above-average staple food prices caused by ongoing conflicts and population displacements.

Conflict and insecurity: The ongoing conflict in the Northwest and Southwest (NWSW) remains the main driver behind acute food insecurity in these regions. The COVID-19 pandemic is further exacerbating its impact on poor households. Compared to the same period in 2020, the conflict has seen a decline in the number of associated deaths during the first four months of 2021, despite a rise in the number of attacks against civilians. Anglophone militant separatists have increased their use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in recent years, mainly targeting government security forces, perceived national political opponents, and those disobeying lockdowns. Moreover, in the Far North, Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (Boko Haram) and the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) continue to frequently attack, kill, loot from, kidnap, and displace civilians. This is especially prevalent in the border towns of Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari. Since March 2021, the security situation in the CAR has remained relatively unchanged. An additional 156 Central African refugees were voluntarily repatriated from Cameroon to the CAR villages of Baoro and Berbérati.

Humanitarian assistance:  More than 25 organizations (international, local, and United Nations agencies) actively supply food assistance to host communities, refugees, and displaced persons in the Far North and the NWSW. The assistance comes in the form of in-kind food distribution, livelihood assistance (gardening, small-scale trade, egg production), and cash transfers. The available information suggests that in the East and Adamawa regions, humanitarian assistance targets the most vulnerable CAR refugees, covers 50 percent of food rations, and reaches 39 percent of the refugee population. According to the UNHCR, humanitarian assistance for Nigerian refugees in the Minawao refugee camp continues. The available information suggests that current food rations, representing 70 percent of their dietary needs, are likely contributing to the relatively more positive outcomes for those receiving this assistance. However, access and financing obstacles occasionally disrupt the impact of this assistance. Moreover, refugee repatriation is underway. Since March 2021, approximately 2,800 people have been repatriated from the Minawao refugee camp to Borno State in Nigeria. More repatriations are expected in the days to come.

Assumptions:

The most likely scenario for food security from June 2021 to January 2022 is based on fundamental assumptions, in relation to the changing national context, which are:

• The number of new COVID-19 cases is expected to remain high throughout the year, given the current trends and the possible emergence of new variants. National vaccination efforts are only likely to have a significant impact on mitigating the COVID-19 epidemic in the long term. 
• The government will maintain restrictions such as social distancing, mask-wearing, and restricted gatherings and movements to reduce the spread of the virus. Seasonal rainfall forecasts (2021 Seasonal Forecasts for Sudano-Sahelian Africa [PRESASS], National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) published in April indicate that, between March and June, accumulated rainfall will be below average to average in the south. In the Far North, above-average rainfall is expected during the main rainy season from June to September. Overall, climatic conditions are expected to promote harvesting and post-harvesting activities in the south. At the same time, they will stimulate crop growth and development during the main growing season in the north.
• However, current river flows and above-average rainfall forecasts, combined with trends observed over the last three years, suggest that floods at levels similar to those seen during the same period in 2020 are more likely in Mayo-Danay and Logone-et-Chari.
• Overall, main harvests in June are likely to be average and similar to the previous year, in part because of increased input support from the government and partners aimed at mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on production. In anglophone regions, production is expected to remain well below average, similar to the last three years. Reduced access to fields and inputs due to continued conflict and COVID-19 restrictions hindered the main season’s production activities. Main season sowing activities will likely be delayed until July in the north, where a dry period of around five to 10 consecutive days is expected between June and July. This projection is based on trends from the last three seasons. If droughts are prolonged, there is likely to be an armyworm infestation in sorghum, maize, cowpeas, and millet. In the North and Far North regions, average harvests are expected starting in October. Localized production deficits are likely in the departments most affected by insecurity.
• The ongoing rainy season is likely to promote pasture renewal and replenishment of water sources in the south. However, COVID-19- and security issue-related border closures and restricted inland movement will continue to limit seasonal livestock migration from the north to the south and in the Lake Chad basin between November and January. Restricted livestock migration could lead to a high concentration of herds along borders and to atypical placement. This, in turn, will accelerate pasture and water source deterioration as well as increase the risk of community conflict.
• New harvests and seasonal increases in market supplies should either stabilize or decrease staple food prices nationally starting in July. However, market supplies will likely either be below average because of harvest disruption in areas affected by conflict or delayed due to flooding in the Far North, along with the disruption of trade flows. In NWSW towns bordering Nigeria, an increase in informal cross-border flows of newly-harvested products is expected after July, although at a below-average level because of official border closings. Prices should typically begin to increase around December due to end-of-year festivities. However, in the NWSW, below-average harvests and reduced field-to-market flows will keep most staple food prices above average at urban markets. Prices are likely to increase sooner in this area than in the rest of the country. The impact of COVID-19 on local supply chains is expected to continue, limiting commercial flows between urban and rural markets and keeping the seasonal prices of imported staple products higher than average.
• Labor demand will likely reach its peak between August and September in the south due to food and cash crop harvesting activities. In the north, main season harvesting and off-season activities should promote labor demand between October 2021 and February 2022, respectively. Movement restrictions caused by COVID-19 and insecurity are expected to maintain below-average seasonal labor flows in Cameroon and from neighboring countries. However, the reopening of the border with Chad could generate seasonal labor migration and increase the supply of labor compared to last year. The typical influx of workers to cacao and coffee plantations in coastal and forested areas starting in November will remain below average due to ongoing conflict in the NWSW.
• Beginning in July, the sale of new harvests is expected to produce an increase in rural household incomes nationally. However, frequent road blockages in conflict regions as well as increased transport costs due to COVID-19 restrictions will likely hinder field-to-market transactions, particularly between distant production basins and urban markets. This will maintain below-average incomes for poor households in these regions. Additionally, the COVID-19 restrictions in place will continue to disrupt commercial activities and employment for poor urban households. Daily wages are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few months, although casual labor rates in major towns are lower than compared to the same period before COVID-19. In the north, the seasonal decline and depletion of crop reserves during the ongoing lean season will cause poor households to increase the sale of livestock, particularly small ruminants, to mitigate income shortages until new harvests begin in September. Typically starting in October, small-scale fishing around the Lake Chad basin and in the Douala and Bakassi estuaries will increase poor households’ incomes.
• Preliminary results of the 2021 SMART – SENS nutritional survey conducted from February 16 to March 14, 2021 show a high GAM prevalence of 12.5 and 12.4 percent on and off site, respectively, among Central African child refugees aged 6 to 59 months. Even after the harvest, GAM prevalence may remain high as the large refugee presence is maintaining above-average prices for staple foods and increasing stress on natural resources and employment opportunities. Furthermore, while the current GAM prevalence is acceptable for the North region (4.8 percent) and in the Minawao camp (3.9 percent) and moderate for the Far North (5.9 percent), poor households’ nutritional status is expected to worsen with the ongoing lean season. This is particularly true among populations most affected by insurgent activities, especially since humanitarian assistance coverage is insufficient.
• It is likely the conflict will continue unchanged as a prolonged insurrection. Separatist groups are expected to clash with security forces at a rate similar to that observed between 2020 and 2021. The conflict should follow the seasonal pattern of increased intensity in early January 2022, staying within recorded averages.
• During the outlook period, insurgent attacks in the Far North are expected to increase during the dry months starting in December 2021 at a level similar to the number of attacks during the same period between 2019 and 2020.

Most likely food security outcomes

On a national scale, most poor households currently consume green staple food crops such as beans, potatoes, and maize. In July, most households will increase consumption of preferred staple foods, such as maize, beans, potatoes, yams, and cassava, from their own yields. Many poor households will also earn increased income from harvest and post-harvest agricultural work. Market food dependence will undergo a seasonal decrease as households replenish their reserves with their own new harvests. Staple food prices will likely begin to stabilize then decrease at average seasonal levels as new harvests supply the market. In November, rice harvests will contribute to food availability in the country.

Most poor households in the country are expected to continue consuming their own yields until January 2022. As a result, they will likely continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until January 2022.

New harvest sales are also expected to be a source of additional income among poor urban households, who comprise less than 20 percent of the urban population. This population’s subsistence methods were disrupted by COVID-19 restrictions. Improved access to food and essential non-food needs will improve their situation to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. This does not include refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) who are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to livelihood loss and low humanitarian assistance.

Beginning in July, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in the NWSW will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until September due to access to new harvests, though they will be below average.  Poor households will consume their own yields starting in July with a seasonal decline in prices and an increase in income from new harvest sales.  Most departments will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity starting in October since households will atypically and prematurely deplete their food reserves. They will depend on the market when prices are above average.

In departments most affected by conflict, such as Menchum, Momo, and Lebialem, production and access to food assistance remain insufficient, preventing poor households from meeting their dietary needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. These include reducing the number of daily meals for adults to prioritize children and consuming less favorable and cheaper food. Poor households will thus continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity throughout the entire projection period.

In the Far North, departments most affected by insurgent activities will atypically and prematurely deplete their reserves and face below-average purchasing power due to below-average herd sizes. In Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is anticipated among poor households during the lean season from June to August before falling to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with new harvests in October. In the Minawao refugee camp, Nigerian refugees regularly receive humanitarian assistance that meets approximately 70 percent of their dietary needs. They are expected to remain in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity throughout the entire projection period. Floods expected in Mayo-Danay are likely to produce localized crop and worker losses and disrupt livelihood activities, similar to what was seen in 2020. This will result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity beginning in August, when floods are most likely.

Despite new harvests, the presence of more than 323,000 Central African refugees in the Mbéré, Kadey, and Lom-et-Djerem departments will continue to cause Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until January 2022. This is because staple food prices are expected to remain above average and income opportunities will be lower than normal. The ongoing lean season in the CAR, which will end in August, will likely continue to raise current staple food prices in border towns in the East and Adamawa regions.

Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most likely scenario.

For more information on the outlook for areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.