Atypical rise in commodity prices will limit poor households' access to food during the lean season

• Over the past three months, staple food prices have continuously and significantly increased in most markets across the country, particularly compared to the same period in 2021. Prices of rice and wheat increased by 10 to 15 percent, vegetable oil by 15 percent, and locally produced palm oil by 15 percent. These recent price increases follow a year of continuous price rises. For example, in Yaoundé and Douala, imported and processed food prices in 2021 were 8.2 and 4.1 percent higher than in 2020, respectively, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS). The price increases are mainly due to high supply costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions related to domestic conflicts. These trends are also observed throughout the West African region.

• In the Northwest and Southwest (NOSO) regions, poor households cannot purchase enough food to meet their basic food needs in a context of high staple food prices and low incomes. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue until the peak of the lean season in June. Starting in July, most poor households will begin consuming and selling their own crops, and the improvement toward Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will likely continue through September. Exceptions to this outlook include the relatively more precarious and inaccessible departments of Momo, Lebialem, Meme, Menchum, and Ndian, where low agricultural production is expected, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to continue through September 2022.

• Households affected by the insurgency in the departments of Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga in Far North are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, despite the ongoing off-season harvests. Poor households in these departments rely heavily on markets to purchase food, and despite recent government restrictions on cereal exports, cereal prices are high and expected to rise. Crisis (IPC Phase 3)  outcomes are expected in March as seasonal market dependence increases further and will continue through September.

Current Situation

The current period precedes the beginning of the agricultural lean season, which extends from March to May in the bimodal and unimodal rainfall areas in the south of the country. It also marks the beginning of the off-season harvests, mainly of sorghum and maize, in the north of the country. In 2021, people living in the NOSO regions and in the Mayo Sava, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone et Chari departments faced acute food insecurity due primarily to conflict and insurgent attacks. Half of Extrême Nord was affected by flooding, while the departments of Mayo Sava and Logone et Chari experienced severe rainfall deficits during the main season. The presence of more than 340,000 refugees from the Central African Republic has led to acute food insecurity in the Est and Adamaoua regions. The impact of COVID-19, both internationally and nationally, has exacerbated pre-existing factors of acute food insecurity produced by conflict and insecurity.

Conflict and insecurity: Clashes between government forces and separatist fighters in the NOSO regions remained relatively constant during the second half of the rainy season in August and September 2021 compared to previous months. However, the number of deaths reached a record high in September 2021, most likely due in part to the militants' improved capacity to manufacture improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and also following the creation of an alliance between the Cameroonian faction of the Ambazonia Defence Forces (ADF) and the Nigerian separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in April 2021. The average number of reported IED deaths increased from 0.62 per attack in the second half of 2020 to 1.3 per attack in the same period of 2021. The end of the rainy season in October 2021 allowed Cameroonian forces to mobilize and significantly increase their military presence to secure the regions before the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, which began in January 2022. This mobilization has likely dampened what has historically been a period of heightened confrontation (i.e., November to February, the period immediately following the rainy season) compared to the same period in 2019 and 2020. Thus, the regions experienced a significant reduction in attacks in December 2021, which continued briefly into January 2022. However, the number of clashes has since begun to escalate, and will likely continue to do so, especially after the tournament ends, when the troops deployed in the cities of Limbe and Buea are redeployed to the rural areas of the regions.

In Extrême Nord, Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) attacks from October to December 2021 decreased compared to the previous year, continuing a downward trend that began in late 2020. Going into 2022, attacks against military and civilian targets are likely to remain at lower levels than those of 2020 and 2021. There was a resurgence of inter-community conflict among fishers, farmers, and herders in the Logone Birni arrondissement, in the Logone et Chari department in Extrême Nord, in early December 2021, displacing more than 15,000 people internally and 30,000 to neighboring Chad. In August 2021, a similar incident between Arab herders and Mousgoum fishers displaced over 11,000 people to Chad. This is in addition to the more than 321,886 people displaced since September 2020 by insurgent groups, including ISWAP.

Impact of COVID-19: Supply chain disruptions in producing countries and increased import costs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic continue to limit the domestic supply of imported staple food products (fish, wheat flour, vegetable oils, and rice), keeping prices above average nationwide. At the start of the pandemic in March 2020, prices of imported rice in most markets in the country rose 20 to 30 percent above pre-pandemic averages, before stabilizing. However, over the past three months, these rice prices and those of wheat have risen by another 10 to 15 percent. Moreover, although no recent assessments are available, key informants confirm that in addition to the ongoing COVID-19 social distancing measures and restrictions on gatherings, fear of infection with the new variant is limiting peddling, thus reducing daily income opportunities for poor households, particularly in urban areas. Data collected by FEWS NET show a 10 to 13 percent increase in daily casual labor rates (for material handlers and construction laborers) in Yaoundé and Douala compared to the same period prior to the pandemic. This is due to a slight decrease in labor supply caused by workers returning to their rural homes at the start of the pandemic. However, casual employment earnings overall remain below pre-pandemic levels, as most construction and non-agricultural businesses have yet to resume normal operations due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Rainfall: The current period corresponds to the last month of the dry season in areas with unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns in the south of the country. In the bimodal rainfall areas (Est, Centre, and Sud regions), the first rainy season is from March to July and the second from mid-September to November. In unimodal areas (the coast, the western highlands, Adamaoua Plateau), the rainy season is from March to October. In the north of the country, meanwhile, the rainfall pattern is mostly unimodal, with the rainy season occurring from June to September. In 2021, the first and second rainy seasons arrived on time across most of the south of the country, with average cumulative rainfall. In Extrême Nord, where rainfall is unimodal, the rains arrived late and cumulative rainfall was below average.

Agricultural production: The 2021 cereal harvest was estimated to be average and similar to the 2020 harvest in the southern regions of the country, which enjoyed average seasonal rainfall and average access to agricultural inputs and extension services. However, below-average cumulative rainfall in the northern areas, specifically in the Logone et Chari and Mayo Sava departments of the Extrême Nord region, resulted in poor planting of cereal crops and low yields. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, last season's droughts caused an additional 10 percent decline in sorghum and maize production in affected areas compared to the 2020 season. In the conflict-affected Northwest region, the maize harvest was close to the 2020 level but remained 15 to 20 percent below pre-conflict averages. Land preparation activities for the 2022 main season are being completed in the south of the country, with planting due to begin in March when the first rains arrive. In the northern regions, off-season sorghum harvests have begun and are expected to be below average in departments where insurgent activity is high, due to low acreage and reduced access to inputs.

Animal production: Overall, vegetation conditions are poor due to the ongoing dry season. There is insufficient pasture and fodder for livestock, which is reducing livestock productivity. However, prices for large ruminants remain close to average seasonal levels, except in crisis areas, where slight to moderate price declines are being recorded. Cattle rustling continues in the NOSO regions and in the areas of the Extrême Nord region that are experiencing insurgent activity, limiting the number and movement of livestock as armed groups target pastoral households. Seasonal transhumance of livestock from Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon to the main floodplains is also constrained by insecurity, conflict, and related border restrictions, resulting in higher than usual concentrations of herds along borders and movement to atypical locations. This leads to the rapid deterioration of pasture and water sources and increases the risk of community conflict. Data collected by the International Organization for Migration (November 2021) reveal that 57 percent more conflict risk alerts were recorded in the northern part of the country between August and September 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. More than 50 percent of the livestock markets in the Northwest region and across the Extrême Nord areas of the Lake Chad basin are closed, and access is significantly disrupted in some areas. Overall, the limited livestock trade is keeping pastoral incomes below average in the country's main livestock basins.

Staple food prices: Staple food prices have risen above average seasonal levels in most markets across the country since December 2021. The prices of imported and processed staple foods have risen because COVID-19-related supply disruptions and high transportation costs in international producing countries have reduced market supply. Having already risen 15 to 25 percent above average since the start of the pandemic, prices of imported rice and wheat in the Yaoundé and Douala reference markets increased by another 5 to 10 percent between December 2021 and February 2022. The price of imported rice is 21 and 37 percent higher than the five-year average in the markets monitored in Douala and Yaoundé, respectively. The price of wheat flour is 38 and 25 percent higher than the average in Douala and Yaoundé. In addition, according to the INS, the national inflation rate increased from 2.29 percent in August 2021 to 2.37 percent in September. Inflationary pressure is expected to be higher still in 2022 due to higher shipping costs caused by the pandemic, as producers levy additional charges on the cost of food products supplied to households. Similar trends are observed for locally produced staple foods, particularly in areas affected by conflict and insurgency, as demand increases with the lean season approaching in a context of below-average supply. Prices for locally produced palm oil increased by an average of 15 percent over the same period due to the closure of the main palm oil agro-industries located in conflict-affected areas. In addition to pandemic-related supply disruptions, above-average seasonal price trends in Extrême Nord are also being driven by increased demand pressure from Nigeria, where production has been consistently below average. In the NOSO regions, prices have risen further in recent months as last season's stocks were depleted early. Moreover, the additional demand for hotel, restaurant, and entertainment services during the Africa Cup of Nations tournament from January to February drove up food prices in urban areas.

Humanitarian assistance: In the NOSO regions, monthly humanitarian food assistance (in-kind assistance, cash/vouchers, and livelihood support) reaches about 22 percent of those in need, with food rations covering about 50 percent of caloric requirements. Cash distributions of 5,000 to 9,300 Central African CFA francs (XAF) per person per month cover 31 to 55 percent of the 2,100 kcal daily caloric requirement (Minimum Expenditure Basket = 15,899 XAF per person per month). In the Minawao camp in Extrême Nord, which hosts 50 percent of the Nigerian refugees in Cameroon, food distributions cover nearly 100 percent of households, meeting about 70 percent of the recommended daily caloric requirement. The monthly food basket consists of cereals, pulses, maize, corn-soy blend, vegetable oil, and salt. About 4 percent of the 23,085 people aged 18–59 in the camp are self-employed or own their own business. For about 12 percent of Central African refugees living in the camps (Gado, Ngam, and Timangolo), cash distributions of 6,160 to 7,040 XAF per person per month cover about 70 percent of daily caloric requirements. In November 2021, the World Food Programme through its implementing partners provided supercereal (corn-soy blend plus) to 14,880 people, catch-up immunization, vitamin A supplementation, and deworming of 5,657 children in the Extrême Nord region. In the NOSO regions, 11,759 people received general supplementary food, including 7,605 infants (aged 6 to 23 months) and 4,154 pregnant and lactating women from vulnerable households. In addition, 1,139 pregnant women received iron folate supplements to address micronutrient deficiencies. However, humanitarian food assistance in the NOSO regions is currently concentrated in the more accessible areas. The abduction of humanitarian assistance workers, the seizure of food, and impassable rural roads are major constraints to reaching many people in need in the most precarious and inaccessible areas. Despite ongoing food assistance, an estimated 20 percent of the NOSO population remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Moreover, food security needs remain high for the 88 percent of Central African refugees and 50 percent of Nigerian refugees living in host communities; for the 32,000 people internally displaced by the inter-communal conflict in December 2021; and for 80 percent of the 300,000 people internally displaced by the insurgency since September 2020. Between December 2021 and May 2022, the World Food Programme is seeking an additional 47 million USD to assist approximately 1 million beneficiaries nationwide.

Current food security outcomes: The outcomes are currently Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for most poor households in areas of the country not affected by conflict or insecurity. Households in these areas, most of which had average production during the past season, still have sufficient cereal stocks to meet average food consumption needs until the green harvest in June. Despite the general increase in commodity prices, average incomes from agricultural sales and from casual labor and employment support purchases of other food and non-food items and compensate for food shortages. However, outcomes are deteriorating for the generally market-dependent urban poor households who, despite having gradually recovered from the impact of COVID-19, are affected by persistent high commodity prices that further reduce their purchasing power, limiting their access to food and non-food purchases. In the conflict-affected NOSO regions, most poor households have already exhausted their own stocks. Due to above-average commodity prices and below-average agricultural and pastoral incomes, food consumption gaps are widening and the use of unsustainable coping mechanisms (borrowing, sending children away to be fed outside the home, buying on credit) is increasing, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for these households. In Extrême Nord, high cereal prices are making it difficult for poor households to access food. The insurgency-affected populations of Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Despite the ongoing off-season harvests, these households are still purchasing certain food items due to poor harvests, and prioritizing the purchase of staple grains such as maize and rice over meeting non-food needs due to their low income. Outcomes are indicative of Stress! (IPC Phase 2!) for most Nigerian and Central African refugees living in camps, while more than half of refugees living in host communities and internally displaced persons face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to insufficient humanitarian food assistance. However, the consequences are more serious for refugees and displaced households in inaccessible and more precarious areas that do not receive any humanitarian assistance.

Global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence remains below the World Health Organization (WHO) classification "High" threshold of 10 percent, although it reached 12.4 percent among Central African refugees in February 2021. The prevalence of GAM among residents of the Extrême Nord, Nord, Est, and Adamaoua regions ranged from 3.8 to 5.9 percent in February 2021 (SMART Standardised Expanded Nutrition Survey For Refugee Populations). As at November 2021, of 22,173 children (under 5 years of age) screened in the NOSO regions, 0.6 percent were identified with severe acute malnutrition and referred for treatment and 12 percent with moderate acute malnutrition. The ongoing emergency nutrition intervention program targets over 120,000 beneficiaries in the NOSO regions.

Assumptions 

The most likely food security scenario for the period from February to September 2022 is based on the following key assumptions about how the national context will develop:

• Conflict in the NOSO regions is expected to persist, and clashes between government forces and separatist fighters will escalate, especially after the Africa Cup of Nations tournament ends, when troops deployed in the cities of Limbe and Buea are redeployed to the rural areas of the regions. Fighting is expected to subside with the onset of the rainy season, lasting from May to June 2022, as military operations are increasingly hampered by impassable roads; however, fighting will quickly begin to reach 2021 levels again from July to September 2022. World Bank experts predict that the national gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by 9 percent if the conflict lasts until 2025, with the GDP of the NOSO regions expected to fall by 60 percent by 2030.
• ISWAP attacks are expected to increase from February to May 2022 in the Extrême Nord region, coinciding with the dry season, when improved road access facilitates military operations. Changes in ISWAP leadership in 2021 will likely continue to cause the group to carry out fewer mass attacks on civilians and focus instead on assaulting military posts and ambushing military convoys, particularly in Mayo Sava, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone et Chari. The group's tactic of levying taxes on ISWAP-controlled territory will likely result in recurring but small-scale incidents of violence against civilians to force villagers to pay these taxes when they refuse to do so. However, there are likely to be fewer of these incidents in 2022 than in 2021.
• The overall conflict situation in the Central African Republic is likely to remain at its current high level, with as many violent incidents likely to be reported in 2022 as in 2021. Despite the renewal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) by the UN Security Council in November 2021, clashes between government forces, international allies, and rebel groups have remained constant and are unlikely to abate, negatively affecting cross-border trade and transhumance into 2022.
• Following the macroeconomic slowdown in 2020 due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related restrictions, Cameroon's economy has recovered, achieving real GDP growth of 3.6 percent in 2021. This trend is expected to continue with growth above 4.0 percent in 2022 and 2023 (International Monetary Fund). This outlook is supported by the rebound in private and public consumption and the increase in agricultural and forestry exports. Nevertheless, FEWS NET notes constraints that could limit these projections, including vulnerability to global macroeconomic shocks and the onset of another wave of COVID-19, especially given the very low immunization rates, financial deficits, insecurity, and the conflict in the northern and Anglophone areas.
• Forecasts provided by FEWS NET's scientific partners (the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara) suggest that the 2022 rainy season will start on time in March 2022 across the country, beginning in the unimodal and bimodal rainfall areas of southern Cameroon and arriving progressively later in the northern areas with the seasonal ascent to the north of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Total rainfall from March to July is most likely to be near average across the country. In southern Cameroon, rainfall is expected to be below average during the main rainy season from March to May and June to August 2022. Above-average rainfall is expected in the Extrême Nord region between June and August 2022.
• Average production is expected for food crops (maize, beans, cowpeas, groundnuts, taro, bananas) and cash crops (cocoa, coffee) from March to July in the south of the country as agricultural areas benefit from close to average cumulative rainfall from March to July and increased agricultural support (inputs, equipment) from the government and international partners as part of the measures implemented to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19. In NOSO regions, where farming populations remain displaced and access to farms and inputs is impeded, overall production and crop yields are expected to be at least 20 percent lower than in a non-conflict-affected year. In the Extrême Nord region, disruptions to agricultural activities due to insecurity are expected to result in lower production in Mayo Sava, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone et Chari.
• The projected average production is expected to keep farm labor opportunities for planting, weeding, and harvesting at average levels throughout the scenario period, except in areas facing conflict and insecurity, where the projected decline in production will keep incomes below the pre-conflict average but similar to the average of recent conflict-affected years. The more than 25,000 plantation workers previously employed by now closed agro-industries (tea, palm oil, bananas, and rubber) located in the NOSO regions will continue to be unemployed.
• Humanitarian cash/voucher assistance is ongoing in the conflict-affected areas and will continue throughout the scenario period. Planned monthly cash transfers of 25,000 XAF (5,000 XAF per person for a maximum of five members per household) will target about 5 percent of the estimated population in Crisis or higher (IPC Phase 3+). The cash amounts will cover about 31 percent of their caloric needs of 2,100 kcal a day (Minimum Expenditure Basket of 15,899 XAF/person/month). The Cameroonian government's new law introducing an additional 0.2 percent tax on electronic money transactions, which will soon enter into force, is likely to have a negative impact on cash-based food assistance, with an expected negative impact on poor households.
• The supply of locally produced cereals to urban and rural markets will decline in line with the seasonal calendar in the coming months as stocks from the previous harvest are depleted. Due to the average production of the past season, overall household demand for staple foods is expected to remain at normal seasonal levels, as existing stocks are likely to adequately meet household demand until at least May. Prior to the July harvest, the number of conflict-affected households, most of which are currently market-dependent, will continue to be above average, while premature depletion of stocks due to below-average production will result in below-average market supplies of local maize, sorghum, and parboiled rice.
• In the Extrême Nord region, commodity prices are expected to be above average throughout the scenario period, impacted by increasing demand from neighboring Nigeria, Chad, and the Central African Republic. FEWS NET projects that wholesale sorghum prices in the Mora market will likely hover around 18 to 32 percent above the five-year average from March through May, but will then fall to closer to the average after the harvest in September (Figure 1).
• Cross-border trade flows with Gabon, Nigeria, and Equatorial Guinea will continue to be disrupted by official border closures and high transportation costs. Livestock flows from the Lake Chad basins to destination markets in Yaoundé, Douala, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea will remain below average due to increasing insecurity along the corridors and rising transportation costs and customs controls. Overall, limited livestock trade will keep pastoral incomes below average in the country's main livestock basins.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Most poor households in areas not experiencing conflict or insecurity are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from March through September. Households in these areas, most of which had average production during the past season, will still have sufficient cereal stocks to support adequate food consumption until at least the green harvests in June. Despite the general increase in commodity prices, near-average incomes from agricultural sales and casual labor and employment will help them purchase other food and non-food items in the market and bridge food gaps until at least May. However, outcomes are likely to deteriorate for the generally market-dependent urban poor households who, while gradually recovering from the impact of COVID-19, will be affected by persistently high commodity prices that will further reduce their purchasing power, limiting access to food and non-food purchases during the lean season.

Food security conditions for poor households in the conflict-affected NOSO regions will be marked by below-average market supplies and above-average commodity prices, as well as the depletion of household stocks. Despite ongoing humanitarian food assistance in a context of low purchasing power, food consumption deficits, and unsustainable coping strategies (borrowing, abnormally high livestock sales, and credit purchases), more than 20 percent of the population will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and June. During this period, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely for about 22 percent of people estimated to be in need of average monthly humanitarian food assistance. However, this assistance remains primarily concentrated in accessible and more secure areas.

From July to September, the food consumption of poor households in the NOSO regions will be covered by their own crops, sales, and by food assistance. However, the anticipated persistence of the conflict is expected to keep farm sales and labor income below average in an environment of above-average commodity prices. As a result, despite the new harvests, household incomes are likely to be insufficient to settle outstanding debts or to recover assets sold atypically for income, limiting their ability to purchase preferred staple food items such as imported rice, cooking oil, and wheat flour, and to pay for medical care, school fees, and other non-food needs. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected between July and September. However, the relatively more precarious and inaccessible departments of Momo, Lebialem, Meme, Menchum, and Ndian, where production is expected to be relatively lower than in the other departments, and where food assistance is limited by inaccessibility, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September 2022.

Households in Logone et Chari, Mayo Sava, and Mayo Tsanaga are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Despite the current off-season harvests, they are still purchasing some food items due to poor harvests, prioritizing their purchases of staple cereals such as maize and rice over meeting non-food needs due to their low income. Given the expected high levels of generalized insecurity in these departments, production, access to pasture, market functioning and access, and overall trade, are all expected to remain below average. Thus, agricultural and pastoral incomes will remain below average throughout the scenario period. In Mayo Sava and Logone et Chari, a larger decrease in last season's production compared to Mayo Tsanaga has caused heavy reliance on the market. As a result, from March, most poor households in these two departments will not be able to purchase enough food to meet their basic needs. In a context of low purchasing power and rising commodity prices, food consumption deficits and/or unsustainable coping strategies are likely to appear earlier, from March to September, for poor households, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Mayo Tsanaga, where the decline in production has been relatively smaller due to the absence of prolonged dry spells, the presence of large production basins, and relatively fewer insurgent attacks, income from crop sales will likely support food purchases, keeping the department in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to appear at the beginning of the lean season and will continue through September.

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.