The impact of current political tensions on food security in Cameroon

This analysis note covers the current and anticipated impacts of ongoing political tensions on food security in Cameroon. The analysis draws from a combination of secondary data sources as well as primary information collected through FEWS NET’s routine monitoring. The analysis focuses on the post-electoral period from October through mid-November and includes a forward-looking outlook through January 2026.

Follow this link for additional information: Latest Cameroon Food Security Outlook covering the period from October 2025 to May 2026.

Localized protests erupted across Cameroon following the October 12 presidential elections, intensifying after the official results were announced on October 27. The demonstrations were marked by violent clashes between civilians and security forces, the burning and destruction of public and private infrastructure, and targeted road blockades. The unrest continued into early November, with “ghost town” days observed from November 4 to 6 in several areas, resulting in disruptions, including the complete shutdown of markets, businesses, and transportation services in some areas. Key hotspots included Garoua in the North Region, Douala in the Littoral, Banyo in Adamawa, and Bafoussam and Mbouda in the West Region.

Although recent protests have largely subsided and relative calm is gradually returning to affected areas, political tensions in Cameroon remained elevated as of mid-November, driven by deep divisions over the presidential election outcome and ongoing public uncertainty. These tensions are unfolding amid two protracted conflicts. In the Far North Region, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has escalated attacks against both the Cameroon Armed Forces (FAC) and civilian populations since early 2025, particularly in the divisions of Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari. Meanwhile, in the Northwest and Southwest regions, clashes between Anglophone separatists and FAC continue, marked by heightened violence against civilians and a surge in kidnappings. Notably, post-electoral tensions in the Northwest and Southwest regions were preceded by a six-week lockdown imposed by separatist groups during September and October.

• Post-election tensions, characterized by opposition-led protests and “ghost town” days during which markets, businesses, and transportation services were shut down or significantly disrupted, have affected supply chains, limited physical access to markets, and constrained household income sources. As a result, there have been slight-to-moderate increases in prices of food, fuel, and essential goods, particularly in urban areas. This has further strained the purchasing power for urban poor populations, including refugees and IDPs.
• The International Crisis Group projects that political tensions in Cameroon are likely to persist in the coming weeks as the government and opposition continue to assert sharply divergent claims about the election outcome. A prolonged political crisis could further escalate civil unrest and intensify the country’s protracted conflicts.
• Political tensions compound the effects of conflict on household food security in the Northwest, Southwest, and Far North regions. These areas, already vulnerable due to prolonged insecurity, are now facing additional pressures as political unrest disrupts daily life and economic activity. These disruptions have also contributed to the inflationary trend in food prices and transport costs country-wide, which already stood at 7.0 percent and 5.1 percent respectively in September 2025.
• Through January 2026, area-level outcomes are projected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Northwest and Southwest regions, and in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts Far North Region ( Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari), in line with FEWS NET’s latest Food Security Outlook (October 2025 to May 2026). Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in Yaoundé, Douala, and CAR refugee-hosting divisions through January 2026.
• Increased food prices triggered by post-electoral tensions have further weakened purchasing power among conflict-affected households, increasing reliance on unsustainable coping strategies. If political unrest escalates beyond levels considered in FEWS NET’s latest scenario, livelihoods could be further disrupted, food prices inflated, pushing more households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes.

Most rural households in Cameroon depend on agropastoral livelihoods, with pastoralism concentrated in the North, Far North, and Adamawa, and seasonal rainfall patterns shaping agricultural and livestock production. Poor households primarily rely on subsistence farming, temporary agricultural labor, and small-scale income from petty trade, and the sale of poultry, firewood, charcoal, and fish, while pastoralists depend on livestock sales and animal products. Armed conflicts in the Far North and the Northwest and Southwest regions have significantly disrupted these livelihoods, reducing cultivated land by 20-40 percent above pre-conflict levels and limiting labor opportunities and harvests. Insecurity has also constrained market access and trade flows, driving up staple food prices and weakening household purchasing power. These challenges are compounded by seasonal flooding,  elevated inflation of 7.0 percent for food and 5.1 percent for transportation services as of September 2025 (INS), and the presence of over 280,000 Central African Republic (CAR) refugees, which strain food systems in host regions. Poor urban households, heavily reliant on market purchases, face steep food and non-food costs, further limiting their ability to meet basic needs. Urban centers such as Yaoundé and Douala host over 40,000 refugees and an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 internally displaced persons.

Disruptions to supply chains: Supply chains for food and essential non-food commodities were disrupted during the period of unrest. Protesters erected roadblocks along key transit routes, most notably in the West Region, the country’s breadbasket, where roads remained blocked for over 10 days, severing connections to other parts of the country. In Douala, inter-urban blockages restricted access to the seaport and major source markets, impeding the nationwide flow of goods. Physical access to markets for both traders and households was also disrupted.

Disruptions to daily livelihood activities: The shutdown of markets and businesses, along with movement restrictions, cut off income sources for urban and informal workers who rely on daily trade and mobility for their livelihoods. In Douala, protests triggered a complete halt in commercial activity, including the closure of shops, markets, and transport services. Economic experts estimate daily losses of approximately 10 billion CFA francs due to these disruptions.

Staple food price increases: Localized shortages of food and essential goods were reported in some urban markets, partly due to supply disruption and compounded by artificial scarcity created by some traders. Supply disruption drove food prices slightly to moderately higher than September levels. The sharpest price hikes were recorded in Douala and Yaoundé. In the North and Far North regions, prices of sorghum, maize, and legumes remained relatively stable, with increases of less than 10 percent. This stability was primarily driven by reduced outflows to national and regional markets, which led to increased local availability and helped stabilize prices.

In conflict zones: Through January 2026, area-level outcomes are projected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Northwest and Southwest regions, and in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts Far North Region,  (Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari), as outlined inFEWS NET’s latest Food Security Outlook (October 2025 to May 2026). Households affected by conflict will continue to face significantly reduced purchasing power due to conflict-driven income declines and above-average prices. The compounding impact of post-electoral tensions has further eroded purchasing capacity among poor households, likely driving the increased use of unsustainable coping strategies such as borrowing food on credit and borrowing money to bridge income gaps. An escalation in political tensions and renewed nationwide unrest and protests beyond levels considered in FEWS NET’s most-likely scenario for the October 2025-May 2026 Food Security Outlook is likely to further jeopardize livelihoods in conflict areas, further limiting access to income-earning opportunities, and driving food prices above projected levels. This trend is likely to drive a rise in the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worst outcomes. Moreover, escalating political tensions may trigger renewed clashes between separatist and government forces in the Northwest and Southwest, while also creating strategic openings for Islamist militants to intensify assaults on military posts in the Far North. Heightened insecurity could further constrain the already limited humanitarian assistance for refugees, IDPs and other conflict-affected populations.

Urban populations: Urban centers, where households depend on market-purchased foods to meet year-round consumption needs, are typically more vulnerable to food price increases. The rise in staple food prices, driven by post-election tensions, is expected to further erode the purchasing power of urban poor populations (including refugees and IDPs), amid reduced access to daily income sources. Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the urban centers of Yaoundé and Douala through at least January 2026, in line with FEWS NET’s latest Food Security Outlook (October 2025 to May 2026). 

Other areas of the country: In the divisions of Mberé, Kadey, and Lom-et-Djerem, which host large populations of Central African Republic (CAR) refugees, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are also anticipated to continue through January 2026. During this period, elevated food prices are likely to push very poor households, particularly refugees, into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security.

Nationwide: Renewed and escalated nationwide unrest and protests beyond levels considered in FEWS NET’s most-likely scenario for the October 2025-May 2026 Food Security Outlook will likely significantly disrupt typical livelihoods in non-conflict areas as well as the country’s economic stability. Such escalation could lead to market closures, disruptions in agricultural and livestock production, and breakdowns in supply chains, diminishing access to income-earning opportunities, and driving food prices above projected levels. This trend could drive household-level acute food insecurity in non-conflict areas.

Regarding regional trade, Cameroon’s role as a regional trade hub means prolonged and significant disruptions would likely have spillover effects on neighboring countries, mainly Chad and CAR, which rely on Douala seaport for imported goods, including cereals, and manufactured products.