Civil Insecurity will reduce household food access in livelihood zones 7 and 8

• The deterioration in livestock and cereal trade due to ongoing insecurity will reduce poor households’ access to food in livelihood zones 7 and 8, which are already facing acute global malnutrition rates above the alert threshold, putting these zones at risk of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between April and May 2019.

• In the rest of the country, despite a precarious security situation, above-average agricultural production will provide poor households with normal access to food until the usual lean season in June.

• Staple food prices will follow the normal seasonal trend, with levels around the five-year average, except in livelihood zones 7 and 8 where there will be moderate increases.

With above-average agricultural production, poor households will be able to live off their harvests until the usual lean season. They will also be able to generate average to above-average income from the sale of cash crops (groundnut, cowpea, sesame). During this marketing period, the prices of these products will be stable or slightly above the five-year average, with normal levels of demand within the country and in coastal countries.

Since November, households have been engaged in market gardening and gold panning activities as usual and satisfactory water availability has allowed for one to two production cycles. The price per gram of gold has remained stable at sites since the beginning of the year and similar to the average purchase price over the last five years (XOF 22,000 to 25,000).

Overall, markets will be well supplied with staple food, with external flows remaining normal owing to above-average output in neighboring countries.  Cereal purchases intended to replenish the national food security stock are estimated at roughly 38,800 tons (SONAGESS/CT-CNSA, July 2018), which is not significant enough to disrupt the functioning of the market. As a result, cereal prices will follow the seasonal average and remain around the five-year average.

The deteriorating security situation in livelihood zones 7, 8 and 9 may result in an increased number of internally displaced persons in the coming months. Agricultural and forage production is average in these zones, which will allow for a normal pastoral season between March and June. Poor households will therefore be able to live off their own output until March, as usual. However, increased security incidents and ongoing terrorist threats will limit access to grazing areas in the Far North. Similarly, the occupation by terrorist groups of territory to the east of the usual transhumance corridor may force livestock farmers to explore other routes in order to reach receiving areas in coastal countries.

The main livestock markets are located in these areas, which supply the rest of the country and supply outgoing flows to neighboring countries. The main buyers (Ghanaians) no longer regularly visit the Djibo and Gorom-Gorom markets, which is reducing demand in these markets. In the Dori market, there is an atypical presence of livestock from Niger, which is helping to increase supply. Since the decline in the naira/CFA franc exchange rate, livestock exports have decreased, particularly cattle exports from the Fada N’gourma market to Nigeria. Thus, during October, goat prices remained stable, but sheep and cattle prices fell by 14 and 10 percent, respectively, compared with the five-year average.

The deteriorating security situation may reduce food flows to this part of the country, particularly to border communities in livelihood zones 7 and 8, where poor households will be dependent on markets from April onward. Food prices will therefore remain moderately above the five-year average. In addition, the decline in livestock prices will lead to a deterioration of terms of trade for livestock and cereals and will reduce poor households’ access to food.

The nutritional situation is also worrying in livelihood zones 7 and 8, with an average acute global malnutrition rate of 12.6 percent in the Sahel region, which ranges from 10.1 percent in Soum province to 13.4 percent in Séno province (Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART), October 2018). With the closure or slow operation of health centers in these areas, the management of malnutrition, as well as screening and awareness-raising activities, will be limited and will thus not help in reducing the rates currently observed.

In summary, between December and March, poor households, with the exception of internally displaced persons and refugees, will have normal access to food from their own production and income from the sale of cash crops, and will therefore have Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). From April onward, the depletion of stocks will make households more dependent on markets, as usual. However, in livelihood zones 7 and 8, reduced access to food and high global acute malnutrition rates will put these areas at risk of Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) from April.