Atypical seasonal decline in cereal prices observed across the country

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Poor households in areas facing major security challenges continue to experience food consumption deficits. In localities such as Sebba and Arbinda, severe food restrictions persist due to the scarcity of staple foods on the markets and the absence or insufficiency of humanitarian assistance. In Sebba in particular, households are frequently resorting to negative coping strategies, such as begging and theft of harvests, to survive. Conversely, in localities such as Diapaga, Djibo, Titao, Markoye, and Gorom-Gorom, food consumption deficits are mitigated by the availability of food on local markets, subsidized cereal sales by the government, food assistance, and access to fresh products from own production, such as fresh maize, green vegetables, wild fonio, and fresh millet. However, access to food remains limited due to low incomes from activities like selling water, firewood, artisanal gold mining, and remittances from relatives. Households continue to reduce the quantity and number of meals per day. Between October 2025 and January 2026, an improvement in food consumption is expected countrywide, as households gain broader access to own-produced food. However, in high-insecurity municipalities, even though expected production is higher than in the past two seasons, food access will remain below normal. As a result, lack of assistance, market disruptions, and low incomes will force poor households to exhaust their harvests early and resort to negative coping strategies to access food from January 2026 onward.
Insecurity remains widespread, with more frequent incidents in Djibo and Arbinda (Soum Region), Diapaga and Kantchari (Tapoa Region), Sebba (Liptako Region), Dî, Gomboro, and Lanfiera (Sourou Region), and Sollé (Yaadga Region). This insecurity restricts population movement and limits access to typical income sources and basic social services. In these primarily pastoral areas, the inability to engage in livestock activities forces households to shift to alternative income sources, such as selling water and firewood, small-scale gold mining (within accessible sites), and remittances from migrant relatives. Small businesses that emerge with each escorted convoy also provide income. Most households in these areas depend on escorted convoys, which can take up to six months, to obtain essential goods. The high cost of these goods (due to logistical challenges) negatively impacts the limited incomes of poor households.
Cereal supply is generally satisfactory and has increased compared to last year, particularly in relatively calm production zones. Traders continue to offload stock to prepare for the next marketing campaign following the new harvests. Demand is declining, especially among poor agricultural households, who are relying more on fresh produce from the current season than on markets. Additionally, government-subsidized cereal sales — 6,000 FCFA for a 50 kilogram (kg) sack of maize (120 FCFA/kg, versus 491 FCFA/kg on Djibo’s market in August 2025) — are reducing vulnerable households’ dependence on markets for food. This lower demand, combined with moderate supply, contributed to the atypical price declines observed in August. In addition to slight monthly decreases, year-on-year declines of 7 percent for maize, 13 percent for sorghum, and 15 percent for millet were recorded compared to August 2024. However, prices remain slightly above five-year averages, with national variations between 14 and 15 percent. In insecure areas like Gayéri, Kompienga, and Sebba, price increases of over 100 percent compared to the five-year average were observed. Countrywide, prices are expected to continue falling until January 2026, supported by the ongoing harvests.
Since late July, consistent rainfall has supported good crop development, with most crops in flowering, stem elongation, or even mature stages, especially maize, fonio, early millet, and cowpeas. Crop growth is similar to normal, though slightly delayed in the central part of the country. Overall, production prospects are expected to surpass last year’s and the five-year average due to favorable rainfall, government support to farmers with agricultural inputs, improved access to fields with rising returnee populations, and a relative lull in conflict in major production zones in the west of the country.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Burkina Faso Key Message Update September 2025: Atypical seasonal decline in cereal prices observed across the country, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.