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Despite national cereal production that is forecast to be 16 percent above average, deficits between 19 and 38 percent are recorded in some northern and eastern provinces where household access to fields has been reduced due to insecurity and displacement of populations. In the provinces with a high presence of displaced people, notably Loroum, Soum, Oudalan, Séno, Sanmatenga, at least 20 percent of the population continue to have limited food consumption and resort to crisis coping stratefies (DGSS / MAAH, food safety survey, October 2020). Except for Sanmatenga, where assistance reaches 20 percent of the population, poor host households and IDPs continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
As of November 21, the country registered 134 active cases of COVID-19. However, since October, the security situation has been marked by an upsurge in security incidents, particularly in the Sahel, Centre-Nord and Est and Boucle du Mouhoun regions. Incidents are almost daily and more than 50 civilians and soldiers have been killed since that time (WANEP, weekly reports). In addition to the limited mobility and displacements of populations, the increase in the looting of livestock and shops and the restrictions on access to markets reduce access to typical sources of income for poor households, especially in the border towns in the north.
With the harvest underway, staple grain prices have started to decline seasonally except for increases between 12 and 26 percent seen in Arbinda, Djibo, Sebba, Fada and Gayéri markets compared to average. Likewise, the average to above average availability of pastoral resources is leading to favorable livestock body conditions. However, the increase in offers in the markets of areas with a high presence of IDPs and the decrease in the number of visitors to these markets by foreign buyers, leads to decreases (10 to 18 percent) in the prices of small ruminants compared to the average, in particular in the markets of Kaya, Youba, and Bogandé. On the other hand, for the Sahelian breed most in demand, prices are stable or increasing between 12 and 27 percent in the markets of Djibo, Dori and Gorom-Gorom, favoring food access for pastoral households. The seasonal decline in the prices of basic grains favors stable or increasing terms of trade compared to their normal reference values.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.