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Since the beginning of the year, more than 500 security incidents causing 1,643 deaths have been recorded in 34 of the country's 45 provinces (ACLED). The Sahel and North Central regions account for 63 percent of incidents and 72 percent of fatalities. Over the past three months, there has been an increase in attacks by non-state armed groups: 21 in August with 109 deaths; 25 in September with 106 deaths; and 29 in October with 176 deaths (WANEP). These incidents continue to increase the number of IDPs, estimated at more than 486,000 in early October.
Crops from the recent harvest are the main source of food in accessible areas. In contrast, in areas most affected by insecurity, internally displaced populations (IDPs) who have been unable to cultivate or have abandoned their fields are dependent on host communities and humanitarian assistance. This assistance, that will be available until December, remains limited to more accessible urban centers (31 percent of IDPs are still living in areas that are difficult to access). Assistance should reach 20 to 30 percent of the populations in Soum province and neighboring municipalities and meet at least 65 percent of their needs. Populations in these areas are therefore experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).
Usually during this period, sales of agricultural products and livestock are the main sources of household income. However, insecurity is leading to a decrease in livestock market attendance in the north with a 10 to 25 percent decrease in small ruminant supplies in Youba, Djibo and Gorom-Gorom markets. Nevertheless, prices are stable overall or have decreased by 5 to 10 percent compared to the average. Among agricultural producers, the price of peanuts is up 8 percent, but the price of cowpeas and corn are down 11 percent and 18 percent respectively compared to the average. Overall revenues from the sale of agricultural products and livestock are likely below average.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.