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The first dekad of July was marked by irregular rains, especially in the central, south-central and north-western parts of the country, which either slowed down or allowed the resumption of planting operations. During the second dekad, the intensification of regular rainfall was favorable to normal agricultural activities, notwithstanding localized floods. Cumulative rainfall totals since April 1 are generally above average to very above average compared to the 2009-2018 average.
The good cumulative rainfall also favors pasture regeneration. However, in the north-west, livestock farmers remain dependent on feed purchased on the market at prices 20 to 30 percent higher than average. Moreover, despite the ongoing regeneration in the north of the country, accessible pasture remains insufficient due to insecurity, leading to overgrazing in these areas. Livestock body conditions are expected to remain below normal this season.
In the northern and eastern half of the country, the exactions and threats of terrorist groups continue to lead to population displacements, the number of which (978,744) increased by 6.2 per cent in July compared to June (CONASUR, July 2020). As a result of the deteriorating security situation, large-scale herders have left the area. As a result, collectors have difficulty accessing local markets for livestock collection. This has led to the supply of animals decreasing in main markets. In Dori and Djibo, for example, the decline is 14 and 23 percent respectively for small ruminants and 20 and 30 percent respectively for large ruminants. The ongoing improvement in external demand for the upcoming Tabaski festival is encouraging a slight increase in ram prices (20 percent in Dori and 13 percent in Djibo) compared to the average. On the other hand, the price of goats is down slightly in Dori but stable in Djibo. The terms of trade for a male goat/kg millet remain generally stable compared to normal.
In provinces in Crisis (IPC Phase 3): Oudalan, Séno, Yagha (in the Sahel region), Gnagna and Komandjoari (in the Eastern region) or in Stress (IPC Phase 2!): Soum (in the Sahel Region), Loroum (in the Northern Region), and Bam, Sanmatenga and Namentenga (in the Central-Northern Region), at least 85 percent of households have access to two meals per day. This is due to food assistance in Stress (IPC Phase 2!) and the adoption of negative livelihoods coping strategies in areas experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) which, for example, affects between 32 percent of households in Komandjoari province and 59 percent in Yagha province according to the EWS national food security survey conducted in June 2020.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.