Further increase in the price of staple foods

The security situation continues to deteriorate and has been particularly marked over the past three months by attempts to isolate several municipalities by militant groups in the regions of Boucle du Mouhoun, Nord, Sahel, Centre-Nord and the East, preventing the supply of local markets and leading to an increase in internal displacement of populations (IDPs) to the main cities, in particular Ouahigouya (Northern region), Kongoussi and Kaya (Centre-North region). At the end of December 2021, the number of IDPs reached 1.58 million (SP/CONASUR), representing more than 7% of the total population.

Given this deteriorating context, protests against government authorities have multiplied in recent months and culminated on January 24, 2022 in the overthrowing of the government by the military junta. Typical socio-economic activities resumed quickly. However, the land borders remain closed, except for the transport of basic necessities, pharmaceutical products and military equipment. In addition, a curfew has been established throughout the territory from 24h to 4h in the morning. Pending the possible imposition of sanctions by ECOWAS, it is likely that the measures mentioned above will be temporary and may not have a significant negative impact on the food situation of households.

Although the authorities have not imposed movement restrictions in the face of the upsurge in COVID-19 cases since November, the country continues to suffer the consequences of international restrictions which negatively affect transaction costs of goods and the prices of imported products, with induced effects on the price of domestic products. Already in November 2021, the harmonized consumer price index was at 112 (out of a reference of 100), up 6 percent compared to the previous year. The prices of consumer products (oil, rice, wheat flour, meat, fish), building materials and fertilizers are experiencing increases of between 15 and 35 percent compared to the average before the pandemic. This negatively affects the purchasing power of households, especially the poor in urban areas.

Due to the below average 2021 production and the reduced inflows from coastal countries, the supply of cereals remains below average in this post-harvest period. Demand remains stronger than usual due to pressure on the markets to replenish merchant and institutional stocks and also purchases made by households, in particular IDPs. As a result, price levels remain high overall compared to last year and also compared to the five-year average with five-year variations of more than 75 percent in several markets, particularly in areas most affected by insecurity: Titao, Yalgo, Sebba, Ouahigouya, Seytenga, Kongoussi and Gayéri.

In inaccessible areas, in particular the communes to the north of Oudalan, the communes of Mansila in Yagha, Gorgadji in Séno, Kelbo, Arbinda and Tongomayel in Soum, Titao in Loroum, the loss of assets and the deterioration of food access following high price levels, push households, IDPs in particular, to practice extreme food restrictions, thus exposing them to Emergency (IPC Phase 4 ) outcomes.

In typical market gardening areas (North and Centre-North regions), in addition to insecurity which limits access to certain sites, the low level of filling of water reservoirs and the increase in other uses of water due to the high presence of IDPs, force producers to limit the areas sown. The early drying up of these water points will also not allow the realization of two production cycles as usual. This activity will mobilize fewer people and the income generated will remain below average. Consequently, the contributory share in household food access will decrease compared to normal.