The security situation remains a concern in northern border areas

Although security incidents have declined overall since October compared to the previous months of the year, border communities in the north continue to suffer from incursions by armed groups. Since December, the abuses of these groups have led to new displacements of populations to nearby urban centers. The RRMs of humanitarian NGOs reported about 1281 displaced people in Yatenga province, 816 in Yagha, 1263 in Gourma, and 2002 in Oudalan. Armed groups also loot food and livestock reserves, prompting herders to destock their animals and to migrate to safer areas. The deterioration of livelihoods and food consumption gaps expose households in provinces with a high presence of IDPs (Soum, Séno and Oudalan) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity, with the exception of Sanmatenga where ongoing humanitarian assistance in maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.

The relative lull in security incidents since October has helped maintain major markets well-supplied with staple grains and prices are stable compared to the five-year average except for the slight to moderate increases observed in Arbinda market (16 percent for sorghum and 28 percent for millet), and in Markoye market (21 percent for sorghum and 18 percent for millet) in the Sahel region due to below-average supplies and increased demand linked to presence of IDPs. Also, despite the price controls carried out by the government, the speculative behavior of traders attributed to COVID-19 is leading to increases of 12 to 16 percent for cereals, particularly in the capital market.

The increase in demand of livestock for the end-of-year celebrations has led to an increase in prices compared to the five-year average in the markets of Dori and Djibo: respectively 6 and 10 percent for cattle, 16 and 19 percent for sheep and 7 and 23 percent for goats. The terms of trade remain favorable to pastoralists. However, due to previous destocking and access difficulties due to insecurity, offers are down in the Djibo market by 35 percent for cattle and 12 percent for small ruminants. On the other hand, in Dori market, the offers are up slightly due to the greater presence of cattle from Niger.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across the country with an increase in community transmissions since August. The cumulative number of confirmed cases and 9,857 as of January 21, including 1,867 active cases and 107 deaths. Despite this worrying situation, the preventive measures in force are limited to compliance with barrier measures, but are not well respected by the population. This persistence of the pandemic remains unfavorable to the national economic situation. Already at the end of the third quarter in 2020, economic operators were facing cash flow pressures and estimated a drop in production, revenue and staff employed compared to the previous quarter and also compared to the same period last year due to the increase in the cost of local and imported supplies (INSD, opinions of business leaders on the economic situation).