Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Current Situation

After near-average crop production (Figure 1), the ongoing post-harvest period is devoted mainly to the marketing of cash crops such as sesame, shea nuts, peanuts, and cowpeas, as well as market garden crops, for which market supply is high at this time. There is currently atypically low household demand on markets for cereals, and large-scale producers have not yet started selling cereals on markets.

There are initial signs of increase of cross-border trade in crops, which had slowed over the last six months, particularly for imports of wheat and rice and exports of oilseeds to ports in the coastal states. However, the depreciation in the exchange rates for the Ghanaian (Cedi) and Nigerian (Naira) currencies against the CFA Franc, has sharply reduced the volume of commercial exports of livestock and certain crops (tomatoes and onions) to these countries. This has driven livestock prices, particularly prices for cattle, and for market garden produce below the seasonal average by approximately 15 to 20 percent and 30 to 50 percent, respectively. Prices for small ruminants (male sheep and male goats) are still at or above the five-year average, allowing pastoralists to profit from good terms of trade for livestock/cereals.

In general, staple cereal prices are near the five-year average. However, prices on the Solenzo market (in a crop-producing area) are 13 to 18 percent below-average due to unusually high market supply and low demand for this time of year. On the other hand, maize prices on the Léo market are 20 percent above the five-year average, fueled by the strong demand from Ghana this year. Millet prices are below the five-year average by 13 percent in Sankaryaré (the capital), eight percent in Pouytenga, and seven percent in Gorom-Gorom, but are nine percent above average in Dori.

On the whole, grazing and watering conditions for livestock are satisfactory, with an average availability of pasture and animal watering holes. However, there have been reports of transhumant herd movements towards the Malian border in the far northern areas of the country, particularly in Oudalan, Séno, and Soum provinces, driven by the premature drying up of certain water sources and the limited availability of natural pasture in range areas.

Food consumption by rural households is at normal levels for this time of year, with households eating at least two meals a day. At present, own-produced foods account for most household food consumption and households resorting to very few food purchases on local markets. Moreover, the abundance and variety of market garden crops are improving their diets. However, most poor households in the communes of Déou, Oursi, and Tin-Akoff in the Sahelian region, or approximately 25,600 people, are highly dependent on market purchases for their food supplies, where household cereal production has been severely affected by crop pests (locusts and birds). This region has a population of close to 32,000 refugees, who are receiving food assistance from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the UNHCR) and its partners.

The government-subsidized sales program for cereals mounted in 2015 to help households cope with the erosion in their purchasing power and the rising price of cereals has been suspended since December 2015. So far, no new social programs have started up, with any ongoing operations limited to traditional assistance programs conducted by the country’s partners.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for February through September 2016 is based on the following general assumptions:

• A near-average rainy season: The rainy season start as normal at the end of May in the south and by the middle of July in the north, and is expected to produce near to above-average levels of rainfall (Figure 2). Accordingly, agricultural activities across the country will proceed normally.
• Average staple cereal prices: The normal progress of the rainy season will spur the marketing of staple food stocks in crop-producing areas, helping to ensure normal market supply. There will be a normal demand for food crops, movements in staple cereal prices will follow normal seasonal trends, and price levels will stay close to the five-year average.
• Average incomes: The main sources of income for poor households during the outlook period will be gold mining and market gardening activities, sales of livestock, and wage labor. The price of a gram of gold (between 22,000 and 25,000 CFAF) and wage rates for farm labor will stay close to the three-year average. However, with the slowing of foreign demand, prices for market garden crops and livestock could stay below the five-year average through the end of the growing season for these crops in April-May. Prices for livestock, which are closely correlated with demand from Ghana and Nigeria, will stay at or below the five-year average, before starting to improve, driven by demand at the end of Ramadan (in June) and during Tabaski (in September).
• Normal grazing and watering conditions for livestock: In general, with the availability of pasture and water, there should be a normal lean season for livestock between April and June. The normal start of the rainy season will help spur the usual new pasture growth as of July. However, there will be a harsh lean season in pastoral areas in the far northern areas of the country with the premature drying up of watering holes and limited supply of natural pasture in these areas. This could result in excess mortality of cattle and sheep in the Sahelian region in general and in the communes of Déou, Oursi, and Tin-Akoff in particular, as was the case in 2015.

Most likely food security outcomes

Except in the far northern areas of the country, the lean season will be normal this year for most poor households, with favorable conditions for the generation of normal (average to slightly above-average) levels of income and stable prices facilitating their staple food access. In addition, food supplies will be bolstered by dry season crops through the month of April. Moreover, a normal start-of-season will help ensure the availability of wild plant foods, milk, and harvests of green maize crops as of September. Thus, there will be normal household food access for that time of year. In the absence of any shock, poor households will be able to meet their normal consumption needs without jeopardizing their livelihoods and, thus, will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity for the entire outlook period. In the far nochemonirthern areas of the country, after two years with harsher than usual lean seasons, the outlook for this year’s lean season for pastoral populations suggests it will be slightly harsher than usual between June and September, when certain very poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. However, their numbers will not exceed the 20 percent threshold required to classify an entire area in this phase.