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Poor households face food consumptions deficits in parts of northern Burkina Faso

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Burkina Faso
  • April - September 2015
Poor households face food consumptions deficits in parts of northern Burkina Faso

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Areas of Concern
  • Events that Could Change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • Acute food insecurity of very poor and poor households in the far northern communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou has deteriorated from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These households, whose cereal stocks have been depleted usually early since January, are also facing below-average prices for the sale of livestock, which is their main source of income.  

    • The pastoral lean season has intensified with increasingly rare pasture and watering holes resulting in a deterioration of livestock body conditions, increasing livestock diseases, and below-average livestock prices in far northern areas of the country.

    • In the rest of the country, acute food insecurity is Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The relatively stable household demand and above-average market supplies of cereals are helping to stabilize and, in some cases, reduce retail prices in certain localized areas. The government’s resumption of its subsidized sales program for maize is helping to strengthen cereal availability and improve household food access.


    National Overview
    Current situation

    National cereal production estimates from October 2014 put overall production close to the five-year average. Very poor and poor households in the northern part of the country with small, below-average, harvests are in the middle of the lean season, which has been underway since February, a month earlier than usual. This year’s lean season is especially harsh in the communes of Nassoumbou, Koutougou, and Tin-Akoff severely affected by infestations of grain-eating birds and the earlier-than-usual end of the rains. Households in these municipalities depleted their food reserves back in January and have since been dependent on market purchase for access to staple foods.

    The far northern parts of the country are facing severe pasture deficit for the second consecutive year, triggering an acceleration in herd movements by transhumant livestock two months earlier than usual (in December instead of February). Even sedentary animals remaining with local households are facing a shortage of food with the high cost of animal feed, which is being sold at prices 20 to 30 percent above the five-year average. In addition, the shortage of surface water sources, most of which have already run dry, is forcing pastoralists to increase their reliance on wells and boreholes for the watering of their animals, which is a grueling task keeping part of the household workforce busy on a daily basis.

    There is comparatively good food availability on local markets and retail prices for cereals (millet and sorghum) are at or below the five-year average (12 percent below average in the case of maize). Most market supplies are coming from traders. However, large-scale farmers in surplus crop-producing areas in the western part of the country stockpiling crops in the face of what they deem to be undesirably low prices are another potential source of supply, particularly for maize. Sesame production has also become a desirable activity for farming households, some of which are still waiting to command better prices for these crops before proceeding to sell their cereal crops.

    The main sources of income for poor households are the sale of livestock, gold mining activities, and the sale of nonwoody forest products. To boost their income from livestock sales, households are forced to sell larger number of animals to make up for the comparatively low prices of livestock. As a result, market supplies of animals, particularly in the Sahelian region, are above the five-year average and prices are comparatively low for this time of year due to the poor physical condition of livestock. As far as income from gold-mining activities is concerned, while certain households were able to begin mining for gold earlier than usual immediately after the harvest, the current selling price of a gram of gold is 10 to 20 percent below the five-year average (at 20,000 to 22,500 CFAF compared with its average price of 25,000 CFAF between 2010 and 2014). The sale of forest products such as shea nuts, African locust beans, etc. is generating normal to above-normal levels of income, with the selling prices of these products generally running 50 to 75 percent above the five-year average.

    The country currently has a population of 32,000 Malian refugees, over 90 percent of whom have settled in the Sahelian region. This refugee population is receiving assistance from the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and its partners.

    The bird flu outbreak in the central and western part of the country is threatening poultry marketing activities. The main destination country for poultry exports, namely Côte d’Ivoire, has already taken measures to prevent any poultry imports into that country. The spread of this disease across the country could mean sizeable losses of income, particularly for poor rural households, along with losses of urban jobs and incomes.

    Assumptions     

    The most-likely food security scenario for April through September 2015 is based on the following general assumptions:

    • A normal start-of-season: The El Niño phenomenon will have little effect on the start-of-season and spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. Thus, the growing season will get off to a normal start between May and June, beginning in the south and advancing northwards. Cumulative rainfall totals and the distribution of rainfall should be near average.
    • Normal market supplies: Average levels of crop production, above-average trader inventories, and a proportionate volume of institutional procurements for stock-building purposes will ensure adequate food availability on local markets throughout the outlook period, except in areas normally cut off by floods during the rainy season.
    • Average cereal prices: The generally stable levels of prices and demand since the last round of harvests in November, large trader inventories, and the normal start of the rainy season should keep movements in prices for staple cereals in line with normal seasonal trends, with prices hovering around the five-year average.
    • Below-average prices for livestock: The combined effects of the deterioration in the physical condition of livestock, the strategic sales of animals triggered by the lean season and by household food security problems, and the reduction in foreign demand from Nigeria due to the conflict with « Boko Haram » in that country and from Ghana hard hit by the devaluation of its currency will keep livestock prices below average in spite of the expected improvement in prices with the approach of Ramadan and Tabaski.
    • Average to above-average incomes: With the normal start of the rainy season and a normal distribution of rainfall, farming activities should also proceed normally. A normal lean season will mean a stable supply and demand for farm labor. The marketing of intentionally stockpiled sesame crops and the sale of nonwoody forest products will generate average to above-average levels of household income with the favorable prices for these products.
    Most likely food security outcomes

    Most very poor and poor households will be facing a normal lean season, except in the far northern reaches of the country, with average to above-average incomes and stable prices helping to maintain their staple food access on local markets. With a normal start-of-season, there will be the usual availability of wild plant foods, milk, and green maize and peanut crops. In general, very poor and poor households should be able to maintain a normal level of food consumption without damaging their livelihoods and, thus, will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity throughout the outlook period. 


    Areas of Concern

    Livelihood zone 8 (“North Transhumant Livestock Rearing and Millet”)

    Very poor and poor households account for approximately 60 percent of the population of this livelihood zone located in the far northern reaches of the country, along the border with Mali and Niger. Local livelihoods are based mainly on millet production and transhumant livestock-raising. Even under normal circumstances, crop production barely meets household consumption needs for three to five months. The main source of household income is the sale of livestock.

    Current situation

    The earlier-than-usual lean season for pastoral populations in this livelihood zone got underway in February with the shortage of pasture and animal watering sources. Despite the earlier and greater than usual herd movements by transhumant livestock, the need to feed remaining sedentary animals is forcing households to resort to purchasing animal feed on local markets at prices 20 to 30 percent above the five-year average. With animals in below-average physical condition, prices for livestock in general and small ruminants in particular are 15 to 30 percent below the five-year average.

    Very poor and poor households have already depleted their stocks of crops and are market dependent for their food supplies. With crop losses from grain-eating birds and/or the poor distribution of rainfall, food stocks in the communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou were depleted slightly earlier, in January. As a result, households are routinely cutting the quantity and quality of their food intake. Nevertheless, millet prices on the Gorom-Gorom market, the main market in this livelihood zone, are close to the five-year average as most households are buying maize at a subsidized price of 120 CFAF/kg, though it is not their food of choice, with their limited incomes preventing them from stocking up on millet, whose price (at 237 CFAF/kg) is approximately twice that of maize. Local markets are being regularly supplied by traders from the cities of Pouytenga and Ouagadougou.

    The main source of household income is the sale of livestock, particularly small ruminants, whose prices are 10 to 30 percent below the five-year average. Supplies, on the other hand, are nearly 35 percent above the five-year average.

    The flow of short-term seasonal labor migration to urban areas and the coastal states has picked up since the end of the harvest. Migrant remittances are helping to support over 10 percent of households in this area. Gold-mining activities have also picked up, with gold prices hovering around the five-year average (at between 20,000 and 22,500 CFAF/gram). These activities are sustaining at least 20 percent of area households.

    There are more than 8,000 Malian refugees living outside camps in this area with assistance from the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and its partners.

    With the deterioration in their food consumption and livelihoods and their low incomes preventing them from meeting their food needs, very poor and poor households in the communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Most poor households in other communes in this livelihood zone are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes.

    Assumptions

    The most likely scenario for April through September 2015 is based on the following assumptions:

    • A harsher lean season for pastoral populations: There will be a harsher than usual pastoral lean season for the second consecutive year with the ongoing pasture deficits and the drying up of animal watering holes. This will heighten household reliance on market purchases of animal feed (agro-industrial byproducts). The already above-average prices for these products will stay high between now and July, contributing to the deterioration in household purchasing power.
    • A normal start-of-season: The timely start of the agropastoral season will help ensure the usual return migration by transhumant pastoralists in July and the return of migrant workers in June to engage in farming activities.
    • Adequate market supplies: Markets will continue to be well-stocked with staple foods from high-production areas in the western part of the country and major assembly market centers for cereal crops (Ouagadougou and Pouytenga).
    • Stable incomes from gold-mining activities: The ramping up of gold mining activities will help offset shortfalls in income from low livestock prices and enable households to earn near-average incomes from this source.
    • Shortfalls in income from animal sales: Prices for livestock will be 15 to 30 percent below average through August with the growing market supplies of animals in poor physical condition. The heightened demand for animals for the celebration of Tabaski and the improvement in their physical condition could put livestock prices close to average by September.
    • Stabilization of staple cereal prices: In spite of growing market demand, staple cereal prices will stay close to the five-year average with the larger market supply of cereal crops and with households turning to maize, which is being sold at subsidized prices. In fact, the government is planning to open new points of sale at sites closer to local populations.
    • Larger remittances: With more household members engaged in short-term seasonal labor migration and longer-term migration, there should be a larger-than-usual volume of migrant remittances, with new types of payment systems (i.e. cell phone payments) facilitating transfers of funds.
    • Deterioration in the nutritional situation: The reduction in household food consumption could weaken the nutritional situation of children under five years of age and further heighten acute malnutrition rates already above the warning threshold.
    Most likely food security outcomes

    Households will be forced to continue to cut the quantity and quality of their food intake. Shortfalls in income from livestock sales will deplete their assets. In particular, households in the communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou will be forced to resort to irreversible coping strategies, such as selling larger numbers of animals in order to purchase food supplies. The lean season in pastoral areas could trigger higher-than-usual animal mortality rates. The cutbacks in household food consumption will negatively affect the nutritional situation, particularly that of children under five years of age and pregnant or breast-feeding women.

    Accordingly, very poor and poor households in the municipalities of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the month of September. Households in other municipalities in this livelihood zone and in livelihood zone 7 will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity during this period.

    Barring a major shock, there should be no further escalation in food insecurity, with the normal start-of-season and new pasture growth giving households access to wild plant foods and boosting their milk consumption. In addition, the improvement in livestock prices with the approach of Ramadan and Tabaski should limit the deterioration in terms of trade for livestock/cereals. 


    Events that Could Change the Outlook

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security conditions

    National

    Spread of the bird flu outbreak

    Four of the country’s thirteen regions are already affected by the bird flu outbreak. The number of confirmed outbreak areas jumped from five in early March to 19 by the middle of April. The spread of this disease to other regions of the country could mean losses of income for very poor and poor households in particular and limit their market access.

    Livelihood

    zone 8

    Distribution of free food rations

    Targeted distributions of free food rations to very poor and poor households in the communes of Tin-Akoff, Nassoumbou, and Koutougou will help avert a food crisis in these areas.

     

    Late start-of-season

    A delay in the start of the rainy season in this livelihood zone will prolong livestock feeding and watering problems and increase the number of animal fatalities. It will also reduce the market value of livestock, further contributing to the deterioration in terms of trade for livestock/cereals already weakened by traders speculating with cereal prices.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Most likely estimated food security outcomes for April 2015

    Figure 2

    Most likely estimated food security outcomes for April 2015

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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