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Stressed food insecurity will continue for the north of the country

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Burkina Faso
  • April - September 2014
Stressed food insecurity will continue for the north of the country

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Areas of Concern
  • Events that Might Change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • Poor households in northern areas of the country will face Stressed levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) between April and September due to their weakened purchasing power in the face of staple food prices above the five-year average. Though able to meet their basic food needs, they are required to reduce their expenditures for basic livelihood protection needs.
    • Most very poor and poor households in other parts of the country will face a normal lean season marked by stable cereal prices and incomes. Thus, barring any negative shocks to their livelihoods, they will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).
    • According to seasonal forecasts, the rainy season will begin normallly, allowing for the start-up of farming activities between June and July, the development of new pasture growth, and a normal pattern of return for migrant herders. This will help generate normal levels of seasonal income from on-farm wage labor and improved pastoral conditions in all parts of the country.

    National Overview
    Current Situation

    Based on the final data for the 2013-2014 growing season released by the government in March, overal, national cereal production is similar to last year and 15 percent above the five-year average. This is due mainly to the record level of maize production, which is close to 40 percent above the five-year average. Output from major cash crops is also above the five-year average (by 38 percent for cotton, 13 percent for cowpeas, and 10 percent for peanuts).

    There are resultingly good market supplies of crops, mainly from trader inventories. Burkina Faso’s Central Cereal Committee estimates the cereal inventories of traders and farmer organizations at 45,500 metric tons, which is 20 percent above-normal, with maize crops accounting for 63 percent of this figure. These cereal supplies are bolstered by maize imports from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which amounted to approximately 1,155 and 1,285 metric tons, respectively, for the month of March. In addition, the government has opened 180 shops selling cereals (mainly maize and rice) at subsidized prices in an attempt to regulate market prices.

    There is an increasingly urgent demand for cereal supplies on local markets from poor households, particularly in areas in and around the Sahel Region, whose own crops were depleted earlier than usual. Their first recourse is government-subsidized shops, even if staples sold at certain locations do not necessary match the food preferences of local households, which still tend to favor millet and sorghum. Institutional demand from the government for social safety net programs (6,000 MT) is below the five-year average.

    In general, cereal prices across the country are unchanged from last month and are actually down from last year by approximately 10 percent for maize and millet and five percent for sorghum. Sorghum prices are relatively close to the five-year average and maize prices are under the five-year average by approximately 10 percent, while millet prices are slightly above-average by approximately five percent.

    The main sources of current household income are sales of livestock, market garden crops, and bush products, gold panning, and migrant remittances. As usual, reserves of cash crops (cowpeas and peanuts) are low and prices are generally close to the five-year average due to decreasing foreign demand. On the whole, poor households have normal to below-normal levels of income.

    Off-season farming activities are on track and mainly involve the growing of onion and tomato crops. A sack of onions is selling for an average of 20,000 CFAF and a case of tomatoes for an average of 50,000 CFAF in major crop-producing areas (in the northern and north-central reaches of the country), which is close to normal in both cases.

    Women and youth practive gold panning, though gold prices are down across the board, in line with the international market price of a gram of gold. On-site selling prices for a gram of gold have fallen below the five-year average by 20 to 30 percent, which means less income for these households.

    In general, market supplies of small animals in livestock-raising areas of the country (Dori, Djibo, and Gorom-Gorom) are four percent larger than last year and eight percent above the five-year average. Households with low or no food stocks from their harvests are resorting to selling livestock to gain access to cereals. Average prices for male sheep are down slightly from last year and prices for male goats are down by approximately five percent but, in both cases, are above the five-year average by about ten percent. There is a fairly good demand for exports (mainly to Ghana and Nigeria), but livestock body conditions are poorer than usual due to shortages of pasture and water. Pastoral households are coping by purchasing more animal feed on local markets. Despite subsidized sales of animal feed by government livestock agencies, prices still range from 6,500 to 8,500 CFAF, or from about-average to 30 percent above-average.

    Nutritional data from the latest SMART survey conducted in August-September of last year by the government nutrition service puts the national global acute malnutrition rate at 8.2 percent (95% CI 7.6-8.9). Though it is two to three percentage below average GAM rates since 2009, it still requires the treatment of at least 430,000 children suffering from acute malnutrition, including 115,000 with severe malnutrition.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for the period from April through September 2014 is based on the following general assumptions:

    • Growing season: Seasonal forecasts are predicting that the rainy season will get off to a normal start as of May. Likewise, cumulative rainfall and rainfall distribution are expected to be in line with the norm, keeping farming activities in-line with the norm.
    • Food demand: With cereal production at levels above the five-year average, the food stocks of poor households from their harvests (excluding those of households in and around the Sahelian Region) will be depleted sometime in June, which is normal, leading to average demand for market purchase.
    • Market cereal supplies: Current larger than usual trader inventories will meet all institutional demand (6,000 MT) and part of the current demand in neighboring countries (Mali and Niger) and help maintain adequate market supplies between now and September. Market inventories will be bolstered by a steady flow of maize imports from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
    • Cereal prices: In general, movements in prices will follow normal seasonal trends. Maize and sorghum prices will hover around the five-year average and millet prices will be approximately 15 percent above-average due to the relatively smaller supply of these crops compared with other cereal crops and the higher demand for millet, particularly between June and July during the observance of Ramadan. However, staple cereal prices in areas with crop production shortfalls (in and around the Sahelian Region) could surpass the five-year average by more than 15 percent, driven by the growing household demand on markets in these areas.
    • Livestock grazing and watering conditions: The lean season in pastoral areas, which generally runs from April to June, will be especially long this year after getting underway a full month earlier than usual due to reported pasture deficits, particularly in northern livestock-raising areas (in the Sahel, Centre-Nord and Nord Regions). As a result, there could be an unusually sharp deterioration in the physical condition of livestock in general and of sheep and cattle in particular between now and July, pending the regrowth of pasture.
    • Livestock prices and terms of trade: The deterioration in livestock body conditions could keep livestock prices near or below the five-year average until July, before rebounding in August with the improvement in grazing and watering conditions and growing market demand for livestock for the Muslim holidays (Ramadan and Tabaski). Thus, terms of trade in livestock-raising areas will be poorer than usual throughout the outlook period due, on one hand, to the falling prices of livestock between April and July and, on the other hand, to the high prices of staple cereal crops (millet and sorghum) between August and September.
    • Farm income: Poor households (with the exception of households in and around the Sahelian Region) will continue to generate average levels of income from sales of market garden crops through the end of May. Likewise, with the 30 to 50 percent hike in wage rates to meet competition from more attractive gold panning activities, there will be normal to above-normal levels of wage income from farm labor (land preparation between April and May and plowing and weeding between June and September).
    • Remittance income: There will be a near-average stream of seasonal and longer-term migration income throughout the outlook period. The good sociopolitical situation in Côte d’Ivoire, the main destination for migrants from Burkina Faso, is helping them integrage into the local economy.
    • Health and nutrition: Global acute malnutrition rates should be in line with the norm, except in areas in and around the Sahelian Region, where household food insecurity problems could drive up these rates.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    In general, the good level of current food availability is allowing for typical household food consumption, except in areas in and around the Sahelian Region. With average food stocks and expected normal seasonal fluctuations in cereal prices, the generation of normal levels of income should give households normal market access and expose them to Minimal acute food insecurity (Phase 1, IPC 2.0). However, the depletion of food stocks from household harvests, staple cereal prices above the five-year average, and the deterioration in terms of trade for livestock/cereals will expose households in areas in and around the Sahelian Region to Stressed levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 2, IPC 2.0) by April. The normal start of the growing season, restoring good animal grazing and watering conditions as of July and improving livestock body conditions and milk availability, should prevent a further escalation in food insecurity beyond Stressed through the end of  September. This will enable households to generate income from sales of milk and animals as livestock prices begin to increase with the approaching Muslim holidays. As of July, supplies of wild plant foods will also help ease household food insecurity. However, staple food prices will peak between July and September, limiting household food access.


    Areas of Concern

    North Transhumant Pastoralism and Millet Livelihood Zone (Zone 8)

    Livelihoods in this area, in which poor households normally account for 60 percent of the local population, are based mainly on millet production, which generally meets household food needs for six to eight months, and transhumant livestock-raising as a source of income.

    Current Situation

    The food stocks of very poor and poor households from their harvests were depleted two to three months earlier than usual due to below-average harvests. Thus, these households are dependent on local markets for their food supplies, which is reducing the quantity and quality of their daily food consumption. According to Household Economy Approach (HEA) analysis conducted in March, household food consumption has deteriorated compared with 2011 (the reference year), but without reaching a livelihood protection deficit.

    Livestock-raising activities, the main source of household income, are hampered by pasture deficits, which caused transhumant herds to leave the area one to two months earlier than usual, mostly for pastoral areas of Mali. Remaining livestock herds are concentrated around the few existing watering holes, namely seasonal Oursi Lake, the Christine borehole, and the Beli River. Most animals are in poorer than usual physical condition, with their owners resorting to buying manufactured animal feed sold on local markets. Supply for sale is low compared to demand and prices are 20 to 30 percent higher than usual.

    The poor grazing and watering conditions for livestock are responsible for the lower than usual supply of milk for household consumption and sale. The only current alternative sources of income are ramped-up sales of small animals and poultry, sales of gold from gold panning activities at prices 20 to 25 percent below the five-year average, and larger than usual migrant remittances.

    Local markets are still well-stocked by traders from the Ouagadougou and Pouytenga assembly markets and crop-producing areas in the western part of the country. Despite the government-subsidized sales of maize and rice in this area, the high household demand for staple cereals (millet and sorghum) is keeping prices above the five-year average (by 19 percent for millet and 22 percent for sorghum).

    March prices for male sheep on the area’s largest livestock market (Gorom-Gorom) were down by 21 percent from last year and six percent below the five-year average. Prices for male goats were also down from last year by 12 percent, but on par with the five-year average. Terms of trade are 20 percent under the five-year average, with a male goat trading for only 113 kg of millet, compared with an average of 141 kg for the last five years.

    The SMART survey conducted by the government nutrition service in August and September of last year put the global acute malnutrition rate in Oudalan province (which covers most of this livelihood zone) at 11.4 percent (95% CI 9.0-14.3 percent). Though troubling, it is well within the range of rates for the last three years (10.7 to 14.7 percent).

    The area’s 8,138 Malian refugees are being supported by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and its partners. Their presence is not negatively disrupting local markets.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for the period from April through September 2014 in this area is based on the following assumptions:

    • Agropastoral season: The agropastoral season should begin normally in July, with a well-balanced distribution of rainfall through the end of September. With the regeneration of pasture, transhumant herds will be able to start returning to the area by July.
    • Market supplies: Good supplies in crop-producing areas of the country will keep local markets well-stocked with cereals and there will be no restrictions on the flow of cereal trade during the outlook period.
    • Cereal prices: With households completely dependent on local markets, staple cereal prices could surpass the five-year average by as much as 30 percent in the case of millet and 20 percent in the case of sorghum. There will be an especially high demand for millet in July during the observance of Ramadan.
    • Livestock prices: Larger market supplies and poor body conditions will keep livestock prices in general and prices for small animals in particular at least 10 percent below the five-year average between April and June. As a result, there will be a steady deterioration in terms of trade through the month of June. The improvement in food security conditions as of July and growing demand for livestock for the observance of Ramadan and the Feast of Tabaski will put prices back on par with the average. However, there will be persistently poor terms of trade even after the end of June as cereal prices continue to climb between July and September.
    • Milk consumption and sales: Poorer than usual milk availability will reduce milk consumption and income from the sale of milk and dairy products, particularly between April and June with the poor grazing and watering conditions for livestock at that time. Milk supplies will rebound with the improvement in livestock body conditions as of July.
    • Agricultural income: There will be normal levels of income from farm labor and livestock-raising activities through the month of September.
    • Gold panning: Income levels from gold panning activities will be at least 20 percent below the average for the last four years.
    • Remittances:  The improvement in income-earning opportunities for migrant workers with the economic recovery in host countries (mainly Côte d’Ivoire) will boost migrant remittances, making them more inclined to send money back home to their families to supplement their low incomes.
    • Food assistance: Program funding gaps will drive the volume of food assistance from the government and its partners below the five-year average.
    • Health and nutrition: Gaps in household food consumption could adversely affect the nutritional status of household members, particularly children under the age of five and pregnant or breast-feeding women. In addition to the repercussions of their reduced food consumption, as usual, households will be vulnerable to the water-borne diseases and malaria rampant in this area during the rainy season.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Even with expected assistance, most poor households will have limited food access on account of their low incomes and the high prices of staple foodstuffs. The falling prices of livestock between April and June will weaken the purchasing power of poor households in this area highly dependent on market purchases. In spite of the improvement in income-generation from farm labor and pastoral activities between July and September, high cereal prices will continue to limit household purchasing power. HEA analyses confirm expectations for a livelihood protection deficit for poor households in this livelihood zone between May and November with a decline in food consumption compared to normal. Thus, very poor and poor households will experience Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period.

    North and East Livestock and Cereals Livelihood Zone (Zone 7)

    Poor households account for 60 percent of the population of this high-potential area for livestock-raising and millet and cowpea production. Crops from October harvests by local households normally last six to seven months, running out sometime between April and May. The main sources of household income are sales of livestock (small animals and poultry) and milk and gold panning activities. Seasonal migration by transhumant herds to the eastern part of the country or the coastal states normally begins in February.

    Current Situation

    According to thhe last joint food security assessment in this area in February harvest stocks for poor households would not longer than the end of March, two months earlier than usual. Production from cowpea crops, the main cash crop grown in this area, is nearly 40 percent below the five-year average, which means lower sales revenues for households accustomed to relying on this source of income through March.

    Local livelihoods are based mainly on livestock-raising (cattle, sheep, goats, and camels). However, this year’s pasture production deficit in this livelihood zone caused transhumant herds to leave the area earlier than usual, beginning in January instead of February-March, as is normally the case. Animal feed (agro-industrial byproducts) is available on local markets, but prices are 10 to 25 percent higher than usual.

    The main cereal and livestock markets in this livelihood zone are the Djibo market (in Soum province) and the Dori market (in Séno province), where March prices for staple cereals were generally above the five-year average by nine percent for millet and five percent for sorghum. The average price of cowpeas (374 CFAF/kg) was also slightly above the five-year average (by six percent).

    March prices for small animals (male sheep and goats) were down from last year by five to 15 percent due to the poor body conditions and larger market supplies of livestock. However, they were still generally seven percent above the five-year average, sustained by foreign demand, particularly from the coastal states (Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and Nigeria. Terms of trade are still in favor of pastoralists, but are nine percent below the five-year average. Livestock grazing and watering problems are also responsible for the poorer than usual availability of milk for sale and household consumption and are forcing agropastoralists to buy larger quantities of expensive animal feed.

    Gold panning is another source of household income, but the price of gold is 20 to 30 percent below the five-year average. Sales of gold from these activities furnish households with an average daily income of 1,000 to 2,000 CFAF. Migrant remittances are also important in this area, with households flocking to cash transfer services on market days.

    The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and its partners are providing full support for the area’s 22,273 Malian refugees. There is a steady stream of voluntary returns to Mali, driven by the gradual restoration of order in that country.

    The SMART survey conducted by the government nutrition service in August-September of last year put global acute malnutrition rates in this livelihood zone at 5.7 percent (95% CI 4.1-7.9) in Soum province and 10.1 percent (95% CI 7.5-13.5) in Komandjari province. These rates are on par with or below figures for the last three years (generally exceeding 10 percent).

    The government has been selling cereals (rice and maize) at subsidized prices at special shops in provincial capitals since October. It has also furnished livestock agencies with a stock of animal feed (2,680 MT) for sale at subsidized prices. Ongoing cash for work programs serving more than 4,000 beneficiaries (by the World Food Program and Catholic Relief Services) are concentrated in high-risk areas for food insecurity identified by the National Early Warning System in December.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for the period from April through September 2014 in this area is based on the following assumptions:

    • Agropastoral season: The cultivation season should get off to a normal start as of June, with a well-balanced distribution of rainfall between July and September. This will help ensure normal levels of pasture growth and normal cropping rates. As usual, transhumant herds will begin returning to the area in July with the regrowth of pasture.
    • Market supplies: There will be adequate cereal supplies on local markets throughout the outlook period through normal trade flows from assembly markets (Ouagadougou and Pouytenga) and crop-producing areas in the western part of the country. The growing household demand will be met by trader inventories.
    • Cereal prices: Staple cereal prices will be above the five-year average by at least 10 percent in the case of sorghum and 20 to 30 percent in the case of millet throughout the outlook period, fueled by a generally growing household demand on local markets and, in particular, by the added demand for millet in July during the observance of Ramadan.
    • Livestock grazing and watering conditions: Grazing and watering conditions for livestock will be poorer than usual between April and June on account of the pasture deficit and the scarcity of animal watering holes. This will steadily weaken the physical condition of livestock, until pasture supplies begin to recover in July. As a result, there will be poorer than usual milk availability between April and June, before rebounding in July.
    • Livestock prices: Poor body conditions could keep livestock prices approximately 10 percent below the five-year average between April and June. The improvement in the physical condition of animals as of July and a growing demand for livestock for the observance of Ramadan and the Feast of Tabaski will help bring prices back in line with the five-year average. The high prices of staple foodstuffs could steadily erode terms of trade throughout the outlook period.
    • Agricultural income: There will be normal levels of income from farm labor (land preparation, crop planting, and weeding beginning in June) and the tending of livestock throughout the outlook period.
    • Small-scale gold panning activities: The lower purchase price of gold will drive income from gold panning activities below the four-year average.
    • Remittances: There will be more frequent than usual migrant remittances to offset reductions in income from sales of livestock and gold panning activities.
    • Global acute malnutrition rates: The limited food access of area households as of April could weaken the nutritional status of local populations, particularly children under the age of five. The usual repercussions of water-borne diseases and malaria outbreaks during the rainy season will only compound the problem. Acute malnutrition rates for the outlook period should be close to the 2009-2012 average (between 10.1 and 12.6 percent).
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    The complete dependence of poor households on local markets for their food supplies in face of rising staple prices and their weakened purchasing power will bring households to minimize their livelihood protection expences. The deterioration in terms of trade will bring them to sell more animals than usual in order to buy cereals, particularly as government-subsidized sales of maize and rice do not take into account local food preferences, bringing households to buy millet or sorghum on local markets at retail prices. Thus, very poor and poor households will experience Stressed acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) through June and on into September since, even with the improvement in grazing and watering conditions for livestock, their low incomes and the high price of staple foodstuffs will continue to limit their food access.


    Events that Might Change the Outlook

    Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario

    AreaEventsImpact on Food Security Conditions

    Nationwide

    Late start of the rainy season

    The late start of the growing season or a poor distribution of rainfall would aggravate livestock feeding and watering problems, delay the return of transhumant herds, reduce milk availability, and encourage traders to speculate and keep cereal prices high, curtailing household food access.

    Livelihood Zone 7

    Flooding

    Flooding problems in this area would heighten food insecurity and malnutrition risks and destroy household assets.

    Livelihood Zone 7 & 8

    Distributions of free food rations and/or subsidized cereal sales

    Distributions of free food rations and/or subsidized cereal sales as envisioned in the government’s response plan for 2014 would help bring down market prices and improve terms of trade for local households, thereby helping to improve their food access.

     

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Burkina Faso - Livelihood Zones

    Figure 2

    Burkina Faso - Livelihood Zones

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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