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Shifts on the grain market; risk of food insecurity in the north and far east

Shifts on the grain market; risk of food insecurity in the north and far east

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  • Key Messages
  • Updated food security outlook through September 2012
  • Key Messages
    • Very poor and poor households in potential problem areas (livelihood zones 8, 9, 7, and 5) are still in Phase 2 (stressed) of the IPC acute food insecurity phase scale. The mobilization of 50,000 metric tons of grain between April and June as part of efforts to implement the government’s operational assistance plan may not suffice to meet food needs between July and September with the rising price of grain.

    • The sudden, unexpected increases in cereal prices on most markets across the country between February and March and, again, between March and April are attributable to a combination of different factors, including the unusual hoarding of grain inventories by large farmers and certain wholesalers in anticipation of larger, more lucrative institutional procurements. Adding to the problem is the rise in domestic (in the northern part of the country) and foreign demand with the growing demand from wholesalers based in Mali.

    • A steady influx of 62,000 Malian refugees, 72 percent of whom are concentrated in livelihood zone 8 (North transhumant pastoralism and millet zone), is helping to heighten food insecurity levels in this area in spite of the assistance furnished to this refugee population. Very poor and poor households in this livelihood zone are still in IPC Phase 2 (stressed).

    • The first May rains in the Southwest, the Boucle du Mouhoun area, and the East marked the beginning of the planting period for early crops in areas reporting rainfall activity.  

    Updated food security outlook through September 2012

    The unexpected sharp rises in grain prices between April and May on most markets around the country drove prices on markets in crop-producing areas (livelihood zones 2, 3, and 4) up by between 10 and 29 percent, which is unusual, even during the lean season. A joint Government/CILSS/FAO/WFP/FEWS NET market study mission in early May made a number of key observations with respect to grain availability, unusual price patterns, trader behavior, and patterns of market flow shaping local market dynamics and price trends.

    Grain availability and trader behavior

    Grain availability in crop-producing areas (livelihood zones 1, 2, and 3) in the west and southwest was poorer than the month before and at the same time last year and below the seasonal norm for April/May. White corn and sorghum supplies on key markets (Niéneta, Ouezzinville, Diarradougou and Saint Etienne in Bobo Dioulasso, Dédougou, Djibasso, and Solenzo) were near-average, but supplies of millet were tight, except in high-production areas (Djibasso), with April prices up by 18 to 24 percent. Domestic (in the northern part of the country) and foreign (Mali) demand is on the rise with the growing demand from wholesalers based in Mali, where millet is widely consumed.  This explains the shortages of millet on most wholesale markets. The price of corn is also higher than in a so-called «normal» year (after rising by five to 17 percent in April). However, in general, there is adequate corn availability compared with the market availability of millet. Northern grain-consuming areas normally obtain their grain supplies from these high-production areas in the west. However, with the high cost of grain in traditional supply centers in the western part of the country, in a shift from past years, grain-consuming areas in the country’s northern, Sahelian, and central regions have been getting their supplies from Ouagadougou, the capital. This shift in market behavior is due to the difficulty of obtaining grain supplies in these production areas on short notice. Normally, traders buy grain to stock up and resell it on the market. This year, however, they have no stocking strategy for the interval between weekly market days due to price volatility risks. Current grain availability on western markets is such that most wholesalers would be unable to meet what could be a two-fold increase in demand, thereby weakening their response capacity. However, the response capacity of local grain traders in grain-consuming areas is still intact, who could meet an actual two-fold increase in demand.

    Unusual price trends

    April prices were up sharply from the previous month and well above normal price levels for the lean season. The Pouytenga market, which normally provisions livelihood zones 7 and 8, Niger, Ghana, Togo, and Benin but which, this year, is apparently only supplying grain to livelihood zones 7 and 8, posted the largest price increases (47 percent spikes in sorghum prices). These market trends are affecting foreign flows. The Solenzo market in livelihood zone 3 and the Sankaryare market in Ouagadougou posted the sharpest rises in grain prices (sorghum and millet), ranging from 17 to 26 percent since March. These price increases are a result of rising prices on wholesale markets and heavy local demand, and will eventually reduce the size of trader inventories and weaken household purchasing power if they continue at the same rate between now and the lean season. Prices for white corn in Solenzo, white sorghum in Bobo Dioulasso, and local millet crops in Djibasso top the five-year average by 96 percent, 66 percent, and 100 percent, respectively.  The sole exception is imported rice, whose price has been stable since January and which is reportedly being more widely consumed by all wealth groups in the western part of the country. Imported rice is used as a substitute food during the lean season as soon as its price drops below prices for local grain crops.

    Patterns of market flow

    Domestic flows have shifted, with traders in grain-consuming areas (Djibo and Ouahigouya) getting their supplies from the capital instead of from grain-producing areas, where prices are abnormally high. There is also a slight shifting in both domestic and foreign trade flows, with traders in certain crop collection centers (Solenzo) buying supplies of white corn in Bobo Dioulasso in April due to the lower cost of grain in Bobo than in Solenzo. Available supplies of imported rice in Burkina Faso are being shipped across the border into Mali, along with millet and corn crops, in spite of strict controls on grain exports from Burkina. Traders have been looking to buy millet from reserves in northern Togo and Ghana due to the longer wait times (approximately three weeks) and high prices in Djibasso, most likely, for shipment to destinations in Mali and the northern part of the country. This year, there have been no reports of large outflows from this area to Niger. 

    Situation in potential problem areas

    Efforts to implement the government’s operational assistance plan continue in targeted municipalities at risk for food insecurity with the establishment of charter shops selling coarse grains at subsidized prices. Ongoing mobilization efforts and the effective marshalling of 50,000 metric tons of grain between April and June for sale in the 205 charter shops opened and stocked with 10,400 MT of grain as of May 21st could help ease food security conditions for very poor and poor households.

    Livelihood zone 8 (Northern transhumant pastoralism and millet)

    This area is still seeing a steady influx of Malian refugees (the count was 45,000 individuals and 7,000 households as of May 18th of this year), which is creating hardships for livestock in the midst of the pastoral lean season. Very poor and poor households are cutting back on the number and size of their daily meals, putting their caloric intake below the national threshold for daily energy requirements. The main sources of household income for the purchasing of small quantities of grain on weekly market days are still basically labor migration, gold washing activities, sales of firewood, and remittances. There is reportedly no real competition from the refugees for local seasonal jobs. There was no major deterioration or change in the relative share of the different sources of income for very poor and poor households between April and May of this year. In general, grain prices in this area are still stable. In spite of government subsidies, prices for agro-industrial byproducts (cotton cakes) used as feed supplements for livestock during the lean season in pastoral areas are high and, in some cases, twice as high as usual. Terms of trade for livestock/grain are in balance, but there are signs of eroding price ratios for Sahelian male goats versus millet. Subsidized marketing programs, targeted distributions of food aid (the volume of which is considered inadequate by target populations), and food assistance programs by humanitarian agencies are all helping to provide households with grain and control market prices in the interim. Thus, all very poor and poor households are in Phase 2 (stressed) of the IPC acute food insecurity phase scale.  The situation of the refugee population of this livelihood zone is being shored up by assistance programs conducted by humanitarian agencies in refugee receiving areas. WFP has taken over the task of feeding refugees and dealing with child nutrition issues, while FAO is assisting pastoralist households and host community households. In spite of problems with water supplies and shelters, refugee households are not currently showing signs of acute food insecurity, but this could change as the onset of the rainy season cuts roads to refugee camps and creates cereal shortages on local markets in this livelihood zone.

    Eastern reaches of livelihood zone 9 (East and Southeast cereals, livestock, forestry, and fauna)

    The food security situation has not changed much from last month. The diets of very poor and poor households in the central reaches of this area barely meet the threshold for daily energy requirements. The unprecedented spikes in April prices in this area are making very poor and poor households dependent on market-buying to round out their diet extremely vulnerable until the first harvests of short-cycle millet crops in August. This group of very poor and poor households is no making enough income to buy grain with household members working as migrant laborers or in gold washing operations returning home to work their land. Brick-making, sales of nonwoody forest products, and sales of firewood and charcoal are helping to generate small amounts of income for purchasing grain. Government-subsidized grain sales programs in which participants can share the cost and content of a 50 kg sack of grain are helping very poor and poor households meet part of their basic food needs. Even with the establishment of charter shops selling grain at government-subsidized prices and the assistance provided by Action Against Hunger (AAH), most very poor and poor households in this area are still in Phase 2 (stressed) of the IPC acute food insecurity phase scale. Conditions will deteriorate into a food crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the peak period for grain prices in July/August and grain demand for household consumption by very poor and poor households.     

    Figures Seasonal Calendar and Timeline of Critical Events Seasonal Calendar and Timeline of Critical Events

    Source : FEWS NET

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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