Assistance has prevented food consumption deterioration in Arbinda municipality

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between December 2025 and May 2026 in parts of the Soum region due to market supply difficulties. However, in Arbinda municipality, where households have already exhausted stocks from their own production and depend on food assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between December 2025 and January 2026. The resupply of the municipality on December 17 is contributing to the strengthening of food commodity supplies on the market, as well as the food assistance necessary to reduce consumption gaps through the end of January. Nevertheless, given low incomes, households will not be able to avoid severe consumption gaps between February and May 2026 and will be exposed to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Djibo municipality through May. Low food stock levels are forcing households to reduce the number of meals per day to one. Between February and May, harvests from market garden production, as well as limited purchases of food commodities made with income from the sale of water, wood, petty trade in market garden products, and remittances from relatives outside the area, will help limit severe food consumption gaps.
• Poor households in Sebba and Sollé municipalities will be in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) between December 2025 and January 2026 due to ongoing food assistance since October, which covers at least 50 percent of needs for the majority of households. However, low stocks from their own production and their income, combined with high prices, force households to limit meal sizes to extend their food stocks.
• Consistent with the decreases of 23-26 percent recorded in November compared to last year, staple food prices are expected to maintain this trend and evolve in a similar manner or slightly above their seasonal averages through May. The increase in supply relative to demand and export restriction measures will support this decreasing trend.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 26, 2025.

Insecurity characterized by incursions, threats, looting, and abuses by armed terrorist groups (ATGs) remains the main factor limiting population movements and their access to typical sources of food and income. Since the end of the rainy season, the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) have increased offensive actions that have enabled the destruction of terrorist bases and the neutralization of certain terrorist leaders. Operations to regain territory have enabled the return of more than 1.14 million displaced persons to 846 localities as of the end of October 2025, according to the ministry in charge of humanitarian action. However, security incidents and associated deaths remain frequent and high, particularly in the Yaadga, Soum, Liptako, Tapoa, Sirba, and Sourou regions. Abuses and threats from ATGs continue to drive preventive population displacements. From January to November 2025, monitoring by the Operational Coordination Group for Rapid Response (GCORR) reported 329,718 newly displaced persons, compared to 355,114 in the same period last year.

National cereal production forecasts are estimated at more than 7.14 million tons, an increase of 17.63 and 37.19 percent  compared to the previous season and the five-year average, respectively. This performance is reflected in markets through a strengthening of cereal availability, particularly in the country's major production areas. However, 15 provinces in the country have deficit coverage rates for cereal needs. In areas with high security challenges, household stocks from own production are low and already depleted for households in Arbinda municipality, Karo-Peli Province. Shortages were also observed in Arbinda market before resupply, as well as in Djibo market in Djelgodji Province. While the number of localities requiring supply deliveries by military escort has decreased compared to the last two years, resupply delays remain long due to pressure from armed groups and their use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on road networks. The markets of Arbinda and Diapaga (Gobnangou Province) were supplied in December, after eight and five months, respectively, since the last delivery. Djibo market was resupplied six months ago.

Prices of basic food commodities remain high compared to the five-year average, particularly in areas with low production and supply difficulties. In November, price increases reaching 68 percent for sorghum in Gayéri and 30 percent for millet in Sebba were observed compared to the five-year average (Figure 1). This is due to the relatively low level of supply, despite the supply convoys organized between October and December for these localities (Sebba, Gayéri, Boungou, Kantchari, Diapaga, Sollé, and Arbinda). However, the general downward trend in prices of basic cereals observed since July continues. In November, average prices at the national level were 23-26 percent below those of the same period last year, according to data from the Market Information System (SIM/SONAGESS). Compared to the five-year average, the price of maize (a dominant commodity) recorded a decrease of 10 percent, but sorghum and millet prices were relatively stable. The importance of supply relative to demand and the export restrictions in effect justify this general decrease compared to seasonal averages.

Livestock looting by armed groups and the closure or reduced operation of livestock markets in the north and east of the country continue to disrupt household livelihoods. In operational markets, the supply of animals for sale is low due to asset erosion as well as difficulties in accessing local markets by traders. Demand remains strong, and prices in November are up 15 to 30 percent compared to their seasonal averages for all species.

Due to limited access to typical income sources, households in areas with high security challenges continue to depend primarily on money transfers from relatives living outside these areas. According to local key informants, ongoing market gardening activities involve at least half of the households at the Titao and Diapaga sites. Nevertheless, given the high costs of inputs and the absence of potential buyers, income from the sale of these products will be atypically low. Gold panning provides income-earning opportunities in Gorom-Gorom, Markoye, Arbinda, and Solhan municipalities. However, income generated from these sources is not sufficient to compensate for the shortfall compared to the typical main income from livestock and the sale of agricultural products.

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian assistance distributions continue in several municipalities in December. Assistance is typically low during this period due to the end of year programs and also the availability of new harvests, which constitute the main source of food for poor households. Security constraints require the delivery of in-kind assistance by air or by land convoy under military escort. Food assistance began in October and continues in the Sebba municipality in Yagha where the distributed rations allow coverage of at least 75 percent of needs for more than half of the population. Loroum and Oudalan provinces also benefited from assistance in November, but this assistance is concentrated in  Gorom-Gorom, Titao, and Sollé municipalities. In early December, smaller quantities were distributed in the Arbinda. However, at least 75 percent of needs are met with the food distribution convoys that are ongoing and cover a large part of the population. In Djibo (Djelgodji Province) and Diapaga (Gobnangou Province), assistance coverage remains low. Given the high level of ongoing needs in these municipalities, beneficiaries are sometimes forced to voluntarily share their rations with non-beneficiaries, which contributes to reduced coverage.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Burkina Faso October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Cereal demand from markets will generally be decreasing this year compared to last year. Household demand will remain typical, particularly in relatively calm production areas where production is increasing compared to the average. Institutional demand, particularly the government's ongoing demand, although at a record level (530,000 tons), will not be sufficient to offset the decrease in commercial demand due to restrictive measures on exports. Despite the high cereal needs of populations in areas with significant security challenges, transfers by military-escorted convoys of cereals to markets in these localities are low. Cereal prices are expected to begin their seasonal increase starting in February 2026, but at levels lower than those of the previous year.

Poor households in the Soum region will generally be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from December 2025 to May 2026. In Arbinda in particular, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected through the end of January 2026. Poor households faced severe consumption deficits due to the depletion of marginal stocks from their own production and food shortages in the market between October and December 17, the date of the last escorted resupply after eight months. The resupply includes commodities for market supply and food intended for free distribution. Distributions have begun and reached a large portion of the population, meeting at least 75 percent of their needs. The assistance will contribute to reducing significant consumption gaps through the end of January. In the absence of assistance, low income from gold panning activities and remittances from relatives outside the area will not allow households to build sufficient stocks from the market to avoid significant consumption deficits, exposing households to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between February and May.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Djibo through May. The continuation of food assistance helps to reduce increased market dependence and also preserve the limited stocks from households' own production. However, the quantities distributed are insufficient and force the majority of households to reduce the number of meals per day to one. Between February and May, rainy season production stocks will be depleted, but harvests from market garden production (vegetables, sweet potatoes, and fresh corn) and limited purchases of food commodities from income derived from the sale of water, wood, small-scale trade in market garden products, and remittances from relatives outside the area, will contribute to preventing the deterioration of food consumption, maintaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

In Sollé and Sebba municipalities, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected between December 2025 and January 2026. In these municipalities, food distributions carried out in November and December reached more than half of the population, and covered at least 75 percent of needs. Between February and May 2026, households throughout these municipalities will be dependent on the market for food due to the depletion of stocks from their own rainfed production. Although food prices are lower than last year, income from the sale of market garden products, fodder, water, wood, and remittances from relatives will not be sufficient to build up stocks, and households will likely limit both meal size and quantity. Poor households will be exposed to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

In Markoye, Gorom-Gorom, Titao, Barsalogho, Gayéri, Diapaga, Kantchari, and Kompienga municipalities, poor households will continue to benefit from own-produced food stocks between December 2025 and January 2026, but will reduce meal size and quantity with the aim of extending food stocks. They will be exposed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Between February and May 2026, food access for poor households will deteriorate due to the depletion of rainfed production stocks. The availability of market garden production (particularly in Titao, Diapaga, and Kompienga) will not be sufficient to compensate for the absence of staple cereals. The low income from gold panning, the sale of water and fodder, and remittances from relatives outside the area will not be enough to acquire sufficient food on the market. Thus, poor households will further reduce meal size and quantity and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Although elevated, admissions of children under five years of age suffering from moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) or severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and associated deaths recorded between January and November show an overall decrease, including in regions most affected by insecurity, compared to the same period last year. The decreases are on the order of 19 percent for MAM cases, 28 percent for SAM cases, and 31 percent for deaths (based on data compiled from weekly bulletins of the Nutrition Directorate). These downward variations are linked, among other factors, to the relative improvement in household food access and improvement in health center function and supply in the prevention and treatment of malnutrition cases.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.