Increased market dependence likely in deficit areas as stocks start to deplete

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Households across most of the country continue to consume food from own production following the favorable 2025 harvest. However, own-produced food stocks among poor households in some deficit-producing areas of the south, east, west, and far north are now beginning to deplete, resulting in a gradual increase in market dependence. By the end of 2025, an increasing number of households in deficit-producing areas are expected to face challenges in meeting their food needs. Food assistance needs are expected to moderately increase through at least February 2026, as more households deplete their food stocks and become increasingly market dependent amid constrained purchasing power.
Following an above-average 2024/25 rainy season, water availability and access in many areas are significantly improved compared to the same time last year. The improvements are supporting enhanced seasonal livelihood activities (such as vegetable production and sales, brick making and construction, and livestock watering), increasing income and purchasing power for households engaged in these activities. The Zimbabwe National Water Authority also reports that, as of late September, the average national dam level was around 80 percent, significantly above the average level recorded at the same time last year. The Zambezi River Authority reported that in late September, Lake Kariba held about 16 percent of its usable live storage for hydropower generation, compared to just 7 percent at the same time last year.
Pasture and water availability are sufficient to support favorable livestock body conditions in typical high rainfall areas. Meanwhile, livestock conditions are generally fair in most typical low rainfall areas. There are relatively few reports of cattle being moved to better grazing areas, as is typical at this time of the year. In some areas, households are using own-produced or sourced supplementary livestock feed (e.g., crop stover or hay), as is typical for this time of year; however, stocks are generally depleting, and poor households are unable to afford purchased livestock feed. Increased incidents of veld fires (wild fires) are threatening pasture availability in some areas, negatively impacting livestock conditions. The Environmental Management Agency assessed that during the 2025 fire season (July-October), 43 percent of the country would be at high risk of veld fires, with 18 percent at extreme risk, due to above-normal biomass following a good rainfall season.
In recent months, relative stability in both formal and informal exchange rates and prices of basic goods and services has been observed. However, prevailing prices remain relatively high and above what most poor households can afford. The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency reports ZWG, USD, and blended (ZWG and USD) monthly inflation rates for September are stable compared to August. Staple grain prices are significantly lower compared to the same time last year and near average, while maize meal prices are near typical levels, improving poor households’ access to staple cereals compared to the same time last year. Grain flows from typical surplus- to deficit-producing areas remain low due to the availability of local supplies, including farmer-to-farmer sales, but are likely to increase as market demand strengthens and local supplies deplete in deficit-producing areas.
Most typical seasonal income activities, such as vegetable production and sales, brick molding and construction, and the sale of thatch grass, are broadly available at typical levels. Informal artisanal mining activities are ongoing and continue to be an important income source, notably in gold-producing areas across the country. Petty trade is common in rural and urban areas and is supporting an increasing number of households; however, the high number of households engaging in petty trade is driving increased competition and resulting in overall constrained household income from this source. Remittances in southern areas have declined over the past months. Key informants indicate an atypically low number of informal cross-border transporters (omalayitsha) from South Africa and Botswana. While a shift from informal in-kind remittances to more formal and informal money transfers has reportedly occurred in these areas, key informants indicate that the frequency and values of all forms of transfers are atypically low, impacting food access for households that rely on remittances as a key source of food and income.
Cattle market supply, especially across Matabeleland South Province, is reportedly lower compared to last year and average. The decreased supply is due to below-average herd sizes and slow recovery following consecutive years of cattle losses due to past poor rainfall; also, there are very few to no distress or forced sales, as was the case previously. Livestock markets are dominated by goats and chickens as is typical, though potential income for poor households is reportedly constrained due to low disposable income in some communities. Key informants report that some households are considering shifting to only small livestock production due to the high vulnerability of cattle to drought.
Land preparation for the October 2025-April 2026 agricultural season is slowly starting countrywide. The main preparatory activities reported are land clearing, digging of conservation farming planting basins, and ensuring agricultural inputs are available to start the season; however, income-earning opportunities related to these are low, as is typical ahead of the start of the rainy season, before increasing in November when the rains typically start in earnest in most areas. Agricultural inputs like seed and fertilizer are readily available on the market, but prices remain beyond the reach of most low-income households. Poor households typically rely on government distributions for agricultural inputs, while others use retained seeds from the prior harvest. An overall favorable 2025/26 rainy season is expected, and will most likely drive high areas planted for crops, support potentially favorable crop conditions and yields, replenish surface and underground water resources. and enhance pasture and livestock conditions.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update September 2025: Increased market dependence likely in deficit areas as stocks start to deplete, 2025.

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