El Niño expected to impact the upcoming 2023/24 agricultural season negatively

• Most households in the northern productive resettlement areas are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes through the January 2024 projection period as they continue to access food from their 2023 harvested stocks and income from crop sales and other typical sources. However, in most communal parts of these areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be present as declining own-produced food stocks allow households to meet their food needs, but limited access to income and high non-food prices limit household purchasing power. In most deficit-producing areas in the south and other areas, household stocks from the 2023 harvest are seasonally declining or have been exhausted, and households mainly depend on market purchases for food. However, high food and non-food prices and limited opportunities to expand income-earning opportunities are keeping household purchasing power lower than normal, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the emergence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as the 2023/24 lean season begins. 
• The government has announced crop and livestock mitigatory measures in preparation for the expected cumulatively below-average 2023/24 rainy season and likely below-average 2024 harvest. In September, the government authorized a duty-free maize import policy for private companies to boost national stocks for the current and upcoming marketing seasons. Some farmers in parts of the country are also beginning to prepare their land for the upcoming agricultural season, with irrigated tobacco planting having started in early September. As the 2023/24 agricultural season begins in October, poor households will likely have limited access to crop inputs sold on the market due to high prices. However, the government has reported input assistance targeting plans and modalities for the 2023/24 season tailored to the different agroclimatic zones across Zimbabwe. 
• Some basic food commodity ZWL prices increased around 20 percent by the end of September compared to August, following about 15 and 18 percent increases in the parallel and official market exchange rates, respectively. The official and parallel market exchange rate increases follow nearly two months of decline and relative stability. At the end of September, the ZWL traded at 5,383 ZWL at the interbank rate and nearly 7,000 ZWL per USD on the parallel market. However, USD and ZAR prices in the informal markets remain stable, and these markets are the main source of goods for most households. However, staple grain prices are expected to increase seasonally as demand increases through the lean season, especially in deficit-producing areas. The lack of grain in some of these areas and the increase in cereal grain prices are expected to increase poor households' reliance on maize meal. Maize meal prices are generally stable and retail for around 0.45 to 0.60 USD per kilogram, comparable to last year's prices. 
• From October 2023 to January 2024, poor households will likely begin earning income from agricultural labor opportunities such as land preparation and planting as the 2023/24 rainy season begins. However, the likely erratic and below-average rainfall due to El Niño is expected to limit income-earning opportunities as better-off households likely reduce the area planted to limit anticipated losses. Poor households are likely to continue trying to expand other available sources of income through non-agricultural labor opportunities, petty trade, the production and sale of vegetables, and the sale of goats and chickens to earn income for market purchases. Additionally, poor households with access to labor opportunities in informal artisanal mining will likely increase their engagement to earn income, while households with family members abroad or in urban areas will likely increase their reliance on remittances. The anticipated erratic and below-normal rainy season will likely limit the availability, harvesting, consumption, and sale of wild products such as fruits, wild vegetables, Mopane worms, fish, and grass.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update September 2023: El Niño expected to impact the upcoming 2023/24 agricultural season negatively, 2023.