Lean season begins as more households face food consumption gaps

Download Report

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are emerging in some typical deficit-producing areas, as the lean season begins, albeit one to two months later than is typical. An increasing number of households have depleted their 2025 own-produced food stocks and are market reliant amid below-average income and poor purchasing power, resulting in moderate food deficits. These areas include parts of Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands, and Manicaland provinces, and the far northern parts of the Mashonaland Provinces. In surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland Provinces, where the lean season starts later, 2025 own-produced food stocks for poor households are already below average. Even so, poor households are still able to meet their minimum food needs from own-produced stocks. Some households are also engaging in limited casual labor (for both in-kind and cash payments), though purchasing power remains constrained. These surplus producing areas have transitioned from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
In early 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated to expand in typical deficit-producing areas as more households deplete own-produced food stocks and face challenges accessing staple foods on the markets amid increasing prices. However, above-average 2026 crop harvests are expected in April/May, benefiting from forecasted favorable 2025/26 rainfall and anticipated above-average cropped areas. The likely favorable harvest is expected to improve food consumption across the country, with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes anticipated to emerge.
Maize grain market supplies continue to be constrained due to atypically low grain flows from surplus to deficit areas. As market demand increases with the beginning of the lean season, the low market supply is expected to drive price increases above the seasonal averages. The South African Grain Information Service has indicated an increase in maize exports to Zimbabwe, with nearly 82,200 metric tons (MT) of white maize imported in October following the easing of maize import restrictions in Zimbabwe. This is a near 640 percent increase compared to the approximately 11,100 MT of maize imported in September. Yellow maize imports to Zimbabwe increased by 230 percent from about 15,100 MT in September to around 49,700 MT in October. Maize grain imports are projected to continue above October levels through the 2025/26 lean season. This is expected to ensure the availability of maize meal on the market and support stable prices.
Despite reductions in annual inflation (USD, ZWG, and blended), inflationary pressures persist, eroding the purchasing power of poor households. Although month-on-month inflation remained stable in November, relatively high prices continue to limit poor households’ access to markets.
Rainfall in November was favorable across the country, enabling farmers to start planting or intensify land preparation. According to the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe and the FEWS NET Agroclimatology Team, the rains have been significant and above average, mainly in Matabeleland North and South, Mashonaland West, northern Midlands, southern Manicaland, and Masvingo provinces, improving water availability and access for livestock and other uses. Drier conditions and below-average rains were recorded in parts of Mashonaland East and Mashonaland Central provinces. Pastures are slowly regenerating across the country and are expected to improve livestock body conditions in the coming months, especially in typical low-rainfall areas where pasture conditions were poor before the rains.
The purchase of crop inputs on the market has increased marginally after the start of the rains compared to before the rainy season, but remains constrained by poor purchasing power among most low-income households. The government’s crop input distributions have started in some communities and are expected to increase through the November-December planting season, increasing area planted and harvest prospects.
The government reported a fourth consecutive record 2025 winter wheat harvest in September/October. About 640,000 MT of wheat has been harvested, almost 7 percent higher than the annual target of 600,000 MT, and 14 percent higher than last year (562,000 MT). The national annual requirement is reportedly around 360,000 MT, and includes an import component of high-gluten wheat that is required to blend with the locally produced wheat. Local wheat supplies will stabilize availability and the prices of bread and other flour-based products, enhancing household access to these products, especially in urban areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update November 2025: Lean season begins as more households face food consumption gaps, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.