Planting has begun across most of the country with the establishment of rains in November

In typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and far north, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the lean season into early 2023 due to depleted own-produced foods and limited access to markets. However, surplus-producing areas, which produced relatively better 2022 harvests, are expected to see the communal areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while the resettlement areas, which also had significant 2021 carryover stocks, experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the lean season. Across all parts of the country, improved outcomes are expected with the start of harvests in April/May 2023. Urban areas are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poorer households only afford minimal basic food but not other food and non-food needs.

Most of the country – except for the far north – started receiving significant rainfall in early November. Land preparation intensified, and some farmers started planting slightly earlier than normal. However, other farmers had yet to access agricultural inputs for the season or preferred to hold off on planting until the rains fully established. By the end of November, over half of the planned crop inputs to be provided by the government had reportedly been distributed. With rainfall resuming at the end of the month following some mid-month dryness, planting increased across much of the country.

In November, prices of most basic food and other non-food items remained stable, in line with the trend in the last few months. However, the government did not extend the 6-month duty-free policy for imports of prioritized basic food and other commodities. This policy expired in mid-November, and its expiration may lead to increased prices of some basic commodities. In addition, maize meal imports were suspended at the end of the month as the government seeks to protect local millers against cheap imports, which may negatively impact some poorer households reliant on cheaper imported maize meal, especially in southern areas. However, maize grain imports by the private sector remain permissible, and national-level impacts to maize meal prices are unlikely.

As the rainfall season sets in, on-farm-based casual labor opportunities are gradually improving. However, water and pasture conditions will take time to see improvements, resulting in livestock (mainly cattle) conditions remaining mainly fair to poor, especially in typical arid areas. Cash and in-kind remittance flows are expected to increase during the holiday season through the end of the year, though they will likely remain below normal. The sale of seasonal domestic and wild fruits and other produce is expected at near-normal levels, providing another source of income for households engaged in this activity.