Key Message Update

Planting has begun across most of the country with the establishment of rains in November

November 2022

November 2022 - January 2023

February - May 2023

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and far north, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the lean season into early 2023 due to depleted own-produced foods and limited access to markets. However, surplus-producing areas, which produced relatively better 2022 harvests, are expected to see the communal areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while the resettlement areas, which also had significant 2021 carryover stocks, experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the lean season. Across all parts of the country, improved outcomes are expected with the start of harvests in April/May 2023. Urban areas are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poorer households only afford minimal basic food but not other food and non-food needs.

  • Most of the country – except for the far north – started receiving significant rainfall in early November. Land preparation intensified, and some farmers started planting slightly earlier than normal. However, other farmers had yet to access agricultural inputs for the season or preferred to hold off on planting until the rains fully established. By the end of November, over half of the planned crop inputs to be provided by the government had reportedly been distributed. With rainfall resuming at the end of the month following some mid-month dryness, planting increased across much of the country.

  • In November, prices of most basic food and other non-food items remained stable, in line with the trend in the last few months. However, the government did not extend the 6-month duty-free policy for imports of prioritized basic food and other commodities. This policy expired in mid-November, and its expiration may lead to increased prices of some basic commodities. In addition, maize meal imports were suspended at the end of the month as the government seeks to protect local millers against cheap imports, which may negatively impact some poorer households reliant on cheaper imported maize meal, especially in southern areas. However, maize grain imports by the private sector remain permissible, and national-level impacts to maize meal prices are unlikely.

  • As the rainfall season sets in, on-farm-based casual labor opportunities are gradually improving. However, water and pasture conditions will take time to see improvements, resulting in livestock (mainly cattle) conditions remaining mainly fair to poor, especially in typical arid areas. Cash and in-kind remittance flows are expected to increase during the holiday season through the end of the year, though they will likely remain below normal. The sale of seasonal domestic and wild fruits and other produce is expected at near-normal levels, providing another source of income for households engaged in this activity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics