Key Message Update

The arrival of rainfall jumpstarts planting amid spiking agricultural input prices

November 2021

November 2021 - January 2022

February - May 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • By the peak of the lean season in early 2022, poor households are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many deficit-producing areas. This is driven by depleted own-produced stocks and increased market reliance with below-average purchasing power. Where humanitarian assistance is significant, outcomes will improve to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Most surplus-producing areas will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given above-average 2021 harvests. Urban areas are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poor households face challenges meeting basic food needs with below-average income, above-average prices, and unfavorable exchange rates.

  • Widespread rainfall has been received across the country this month, increasing land preparation and planting for the 2021-22 agricultural season and improving agricultural labor opportunities. This marks a normal start of the season in most areas with some farmers planting earlier than usual in localized areas. However, some farmers have been negatively impacted as prices of crop inputs shot up significantly in November with most commodities costing up to 100 percent higher than this time last year. General dryness and high temperatures have been reported in the last week of the month.

  • Parallel market exchange rates currently range between 70 and 100 percent above offical exchange rates, driving most price increases in goods and services. In addition, official exchange rates increased by nearly 10 percent from October to November, following a period of relative stability in recent months. ZIMSTAT reported increases of at least six percent in the food poverty and total consumption poverty lines in November. These progressive increases in the cost of living have eroded household income and constrained food access on the market, especially among poor households in both rural and urban areas.

  • As the lean season begins, households in typical deficit-producing areas are broadening and intensifying their livelihood and coping strategies. Strategies include casual labor, livestock and wild fruit sales, self-employment, petty trade, and informal mining. However, above-average transportation costs are constraining some coping strategies and anticipated above-average rainfall is likely to negatively affect informal mining opportunities.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics